Bitcoin

Bitcoin (<a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/" rel="noopener noreferrer">BTC</a>) spent most of the week consolidating after reaching a 4-month high of $81,500 on Aug. 28. Profit-taking at the range highs aligned with a 3.58% drop in aggregate <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/open-interest" rel="noopener noreferrer">open interest</a>, but the dominant crypto story was the return of investor demand. August saw $3.5 billion in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, a level not seen since July 2025. Meanwhile, total BTC ETF net inflows on Sept. 3 topped $731 million, with IBIT accounting for $453 million of the haul.<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/6d889e4fd8df41c7a25f63bf63d063e3.png">Total spot Bitcoin ETF net inflow. Source: <a href="https://sosovalue.com/assets/etf/Total_Crypto_Spot_ETF_Fund_Flow?page=usBTC" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">SoSoValue</a>Bond market stress resumed, with yields returning to 20-year highs. The market questioned the efficacy of US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/treasury-bond-t-bond" rel="noopener noreferrer">long-bond</a> buyback initiative amid a $40.18 trillion national debt, a quagmire in Iran, Brent crude near $97, and equally concerning movement in <a href="https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2094760952344265113?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">global bond yields</a>.<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/2d682589d67f4e3485c943727e029eaa.jpg">Bond markets forecast higher-for-longer yields. Source: Robin Brooks / XAccording to 1971 Capital founder Brian Russ:<blockquote> “The market is going to test Bessent. As soon as the Treasury suggests a level they will defend, the market will come after it and apply pressure. He’s made his bed now. The measures needed to cap yields on the long end will need to get increasingly aggressive to defend that line.&nbsp; The more extreme the measures, the higher BTC and gold will march. I expect a lot of vol along the way.”
</blockquote>For crypto and precious metals, the debasement trade narrative remained in full effect. Investors bought into the narrative that US <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/inflation" rel="noopener noreferrer">inflation</a> will hold above the Fed’s 2% target and that the global bond sell-off is more than a short-term, policy-driven scare.<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/31f7e475821843f2a05a8594a6bc2e68.jpg">Commodities, BTC rally as Iran tensions, debasement trade peak. Source: Kobeissi Letter/XFederal Reserve credibility remains in question after investors interpreted Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole as hawkish. Warsh clarified the Fed’s commitment to 2% inflation, but his speech failed to displace investor concerns on exactly how the Fed will lower inflation.In an interview with Bloomberg, BlackRock Global Chief Investment Strategist Wei Li <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-09-01/blackrock-s-li-sees-opportunities-within-fixed-income-video" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">said</a>:<blockquote> “Chair Warsh needs credibility first and foremost before he can do anything. Credibility feeds into term premium, term premium into long rates. And long rates, how the government funds itself, are an immutable law that binds. So counterintuitively, to contain long rates Warsh may have to sound hawkish first. Markets listened to his Jackson Hole speech and September hike probability jumped to now base case. Will tomorrow’s NFP give the Fed cover not to hike? If not, and they don’t, credibility and term premium are right back in focus.”
</blockquote>Interest rate hike odds for September rose from 35% to 53% according to the CME FedWatch tool following Jackson Hole. After the Sept. 4 jobs report beat expectations, the odds rose further to about 58%. The shift suggests markets are increasingly pricing in a hike, meaning a hold could surprise and possibly extend the bullish momentum seen over the past few weeks.<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/80976a7fd91c4512af77de6008120c6d.png">September interest rate hike odds. Source: <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">CME Group</a>Economic reporting this week may reshape investor expectations ahead of the Fed’s September interest rate decision. Sept. 10 Initial Jobless Claims and Producer Price Index (PPI), along with the Sept. 11 Consumer Price Index and Core CPI print, are likely to impact markets ahead of the Sept. 16 FOMC.Taken together, the market interpretation of Treasury bond buybacks as QE-like policy or <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/yield-curve" rel="noopener noreferrer">yield curve</a> control, sticky inflation, and runaway government debt has fueled Bitcoin’s debasement trade narrative, briefly pushing BTC above $82,000 on Sept. 4.<h2 id="is-90-000-bitcoin-s-next-stop">Is $90,000 Bitcoin’s Next Stop?</h2>Liquidation heatmap data from Hyblock shows short liquidity from $84,000 to $87,000 and (at the time of writing) a cluster serving as resistance at $81,500.<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/b82d6e119b8e443fa4c4323d2980f016.png">BTC/USD liquidation heatmap, 1-month lookback. Source: HyblockAggregate spot and futures cumulative volume delta data show Bitcoin sell volumes increasing on Aug. 28. The preceding short squeeze pulled BTC price into a heavy supply zone&nbsp; (starting at $81,000) where the chance for redistribution and <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/debasement-trade-crypto-bear-market-ends-bitcoin-100k" rel="noopener noreferrer">consolidation increased</a>.<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/2aafdf9df79343dd8f329acd4d4d3b91.png">BTC/USD spot and futures cumulative volume delta. Source: <a href="https://x.com/HorusHughes" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Ray Salmond</a> / HyblockGlassnode data reinforces the view, showing that the percentage of supply in profit at the current range high (68%) is higher than it was (65%) when BTC traded in the same range in May.Glassnode analyst Frederik Theissen described the in-profit coins as “an expanded pool of latent sell-side <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/liquidity" rel="noopener noreferrer">liquidity</a> when spot tests prior highs.”<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/73476fc4380a42c48184787667de8247.png">In-profit Bitcoin positions elevate sell-pressure risk after rally to $81,000. Source: <a href="https://research.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-35-2026/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Glassnode</a><h2 id="is-the-market-ready-for-clarity">Is the Market Ready For CLARITY?</h2>In a Sept. 2 interview with Fox Business, SEC Chair Paul Atkins <a href="https://x.com/CoinMarketCap/status/2095365714303471978?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">expressed optimism</a> that the CLARITY Act would advance in the Senate, with a procedural vote expected on Sept. 15. Atkins said:<blockquote> “I anticipate and hope that it will be passed by the Senate, and sent ultimately to the president’s desk for signature.”
</blockquote>By the end of the week, the outlook turned dismal as US House GOP leadership canceled the last two weeks of September sessions. The House now has four voting days beginning Sept. 14 before lawmakers leave Washington until after the mid-term elections, drastically narrowing the window for CLARITY to clear the Senate and for the House to consider any amended version.On X, Crypto in America co-founder Eleanor Terrett <a href="https://x.com/EleanorTerrett/status/2095521223308427314?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">shared</a> a realistic view, suggesting that it would “technically take the bill about a week and a half to two weeks to get through the Senate anyway because of the multiple votes.”<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/a63bba87f5ad428f987a31a2c454e3a6.png">CLARITY Act floor vote might not matter. Source: Eleanor Terrett / XIf the Senate floor vote fails and CLARITY fails to become law by the US mid-term elections, leaders from the SEC, CFTC, and Trump Administration have gone on record saying regulators will devise pro-crypto rules to <a href="https://x.com/MichaelSelig/status/2030339473133785320?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">move the industry forward</a>.<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/ebe928dc408b4c0b84ce9d732f0defa1.png">SEC, CFTC pledge to implement crypto rules even if the CLARITY Act fails to become law. Source: Mike Selig / X<h2 id="what-s-on-the-radar">What’s on the Radar?</h2><ul><li>Bitcoin short positions from $84,000 to $87,000 loom overhead. Would clearing them open a path to $92,000?</li><li>The Sept. 10 Initial Jobless Claims and Producer Price Index (PPI), along with the Sept. 11 Consumer Price Index and Core CPI print, are likely to impact markets ahead of the Sept. 16 FOMC. How will rate hike odds adjust through the data releases, and will the market continue to perceive each as “already priced in?”</li><li>A procedural Senate vote on the CLARITY Act is expected on Sept. 15. Perpetual futures market positioning and aggregate open interest in BTC, ETH, HYPE, and UNI may provide insight into odds vs. investor risk appetite ahead of the vote.</li><li>ETF net flows, Strategy, and Digital-Asset Treasury crypto buying need to continue to sustain the crypto bid in the absence of spot CEX volumes. Will a pause lead to a loss in market momentum?</li></ul>

Is the Bitcoin Bull Market Back? Investors Bet on ‘Higher for Longer’ Rates

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