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Bitcoin (<a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">BTC</a>) and Ether (<a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">ETH</a>) spent the week trading within their respective 60-day ranges after the US Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with three members favoring a hike.The hold on rates aligned with market expectations, but analysts remain split on Fed chair Kevin Warsh’s presser comments, along with his longer-term plan to handle inflation.Responding to the Fed rate hold and following PCE data, analysts at Hyblock <a href="https://x.com/hyblockcapital/status/2082825786529100274?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">said</a>,<blockquote> “Soft Q2 GDP (1.5%, below expectations) + cooler June Core PCE (0.1% MoM / 3.3% YoY). This data reduces the odds of a rate hike. Plays perfectly into our thesis: highest probability remains no rate cut for the rest of the year, with P(cut) &gt; P(hike).”
</blockquote>Following Warsh’s presser, Treasury yields initially spiked. The 30-year bond hit its highest level since 2007 at 5.2%, while the 10-year note yield climbed to 4.6%. Equities initially softened during the press conference, but PCE data and a late-week relief rally led by tech and AI stocks pushed markets into the green by the end of the week.The Rundown<ul><li>Bitcoin Ping Pongs on FOMC, PCE, Tech Stock Rebound</li><li>Ethics and Consumer Protection Issues Muddy CLARITY Act Progress</li><li>Bitcoin Rejects New Lows Despite Waves of Negative Newsflow</li><li>What’s on the Radar?</li></ul><h2 id="bitcoin-ping-pongs-on-fomc-pce-tech-stock-rebound">Bitcoin Ping Pongs on FOMC, PCE, Tech Stock Rebound</h2>Bitcoin failed to sync with the stock market rally, falling to a two-week low of $62,466. Aside from the usual futures activity playing an outsized role in BTC’s price action, Strategy reported an $8.22 billion loss due to fair value changes. The company also re-emphasized its openness to selling Bitcoin in the future to increase USD reserves, affirming the view that the flagship bid from the market’s largest corporate Bitcoin treasury is effectively halted.In a Q2 earnings call, Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor <a href="https://x.com/WuBlockchain/status/2083022346705838162?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">explained</a> why future Bitcoin sales were on the table. He added that upcoming fundraises might not be used to purchase more BTC.<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/dd69485a63eb4c72be50855b538fa22b.jpg">In a further pivot away from direct Bitcoin purchasing, Strategy <a href="https://x.com/Strategy/status/2081730850131996676?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">announced</a> a purchase of 288,930 shares of its Stretch (STRC) perpetual preferred stock on July 27 for $25 million.In an X post, the company said, “We intend to remain a regular, disciplined buyer of STRC below $100.” Strategy also explained that "repurchases will be funded outside the USD Reserve, including through MSTR and BTC sales, based on market conditions.”<h2 id="ethics-and-consumer-protection-issues-muddy-clarity-act-progress">Ethics and Consumer Protection Issues Muddy CLARITY Act Progress</h2>On the regulatory side, ramped up efforts to push the CLARITY Act to a US Senate floor vote appeared to lose momentum, but advocates remain hopeful. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said the goal is to get the floor vote done before the August 7 recess. However, unresolved issues related to ethics and consumer protection continue to generate friction.Despite falling odds of CLARITY passing before the US midterm elections, Bitcoin’s corporate bid fading and a market still wary of possible interest rate hikes, market structure for crypto majors continues to improve. This raises the real question of whether the bulk of the “bad news” is already known and priced into Bitcoin and the wider crypto market.<h2 id="bitcoin-rejects-new-lows-despite-waves-of-negative-newsflow">Bitcoin Rejects New Lows Despite Waves of Negative Newsflow</h2>Bitcoin risked off ahead of the FOMC, which is customary. It then initially synced with the risk-on recovery in the Dow, S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq. The move followed <a href="https://x.com/business/status/2083044280285687975?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">news</a> that Citadel had bought Situational Awareness’ stock portfolio after the firm’s massive losses in levered AI positions.Bitcoin’s cumulative volume delta showed $754 million in buy volume on July 30. Meanwhile, spot BTC ETFs took in roughly $204 million over a four-day period. The past two weeks of ETF flows suggest that a light institutional bid is holding despite negative factors like Strategy becoming an idle player over the past 5 weeks.<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/3999c133492741a0b5abac42122dde69.png">Bitcoin ETF tracker. Source: <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/etf/bitcoin/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">CoinMarketCap</a>Futures data shows leveraged longs accounted for about 50% of the $286 million in liquidations on July 30. However, the funding rate remains tilted toward longs who remain at risk of liquidation in the $62,500 to $63,500 range. Short traders, on the other hand, risk being squeezed in the $64,500 to $65,500 zone.<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/6c3acca7a47d4554a6a82321204b7e76.png">Bitcoin price, aggregate open interest, funding rate. Source: HyblockThe current view, which mirrors previous weeks, is that open interest is slowly rebuilding after a 5.2% flushout on July 21. As longs deleveraged leading into the FOMC meeting, they added to BTC’s price weakness. Signs of a bearish reversal would include rising OI alongside a falling price and failure of $62,000 to hold.<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/56d1e3f187bf447daa44c89465c6cb47.jpg">BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap. One-month lookback. Source: Hyblock<h2 id="what-s-on-the-radar">What’s on the Radar?</h2><ul><li>Markets rallied following the Situational Awareness hedge fund sale. If the AI rout found a bottom, will rising risk sentiment spill over to crypto?</li><li>Markets appeared to price in Strategy becoming a Bitcoin seller for the foreseeable future and ETF flows are on a two-week net positive streak. Can futures traders push prices to $66,000 and higher?</li><li>There’s still a chance for the CLARITY Act to make it to a Senate floor vote, and then President Trump’s desk. Will traders front-run improving odds or other positive news in Bitcoin, ETH and DeFi tokens?</li></ul>

Bitcoin Price Is Stuck Trading Sideways, but Is an $80K Rally in the Cards?

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