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<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Grayscale's four-year cycle model suggests Bitcoin could reach its market bottom in September or October, with milder losses than past cycles.</li><li>Zach Pandl said Bitcoin may have already bottomed if the Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged and economic growth remains stable.</li><li>Grayscale said Strategy's larger cash reserve eases financing concerns, though Fed hikes and CLARITY Act delays remain downside risks.</li></ul><p>Bitcoin could avoid another sharp decline if the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates <a href="https://www.grayscale.com/the-stack/bitcoin-four-year-cycle-or-macro-asset" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">unchanged</a>, according to Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl. However, the asset manager said its traditional four-year cycle model still points to a possible market bottom in September or October. Grayscale outlined both views in its latest research while assessing Bitcoin's recent decline from its $125,000 cycle peak.</p><h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="strong-four-year-cycle-and-macro-views-diverge-strong"><strong>Four-Year Cycle And Macro Views Diverge</strong></h2><p>According to Grayscale, Bitcoin investors remain divided between two market frameworks. One follows the historical four-year cycle tied to <a href="https://cryptofrontnews.com/galaxy-launches-5m-bitcoin-quantum-readiness-initiative-to-strengthen-crypto-security/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin</a> halving events. The other focuses on macroeconomic conditions, including economic growth and real interest rates.</p><p>The cycle model suggests Bitcoin typically reaches its lowest point about one year after a market peak. It also places the bottom roughly two and a half years after each halving. Notably, previous bear markets recorded average drawdowns of about 80%.</p><p>Based on that history, Grayscale said Bitcoin could still decline before reaching a low in September or October. However, the firm said it does not expect losses to match earlier cycles because institutional participation has increased.</p><h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="strong-fed-policy-remains-the-key-focus-strong"><strong>Fed Policy Remains The Key Focus</strong></h2><p>Pandl said Bitcoin has increasingly traded like a mature financial asset instead of following halving cycles alone. According to him, previous downturns often coincided with slowing economic growth or rising real interest rates.</p><p>The current decline has also unfolded alongside changing Federal Reserve policy expectations. Therefore, <a href="https://cryptofrontnews.com/grayscales-zach-pandl-says-strategy-3b-bitcoin-sale-could-restore-crypto-market-confidence/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Grayscale</a> believes Bitcoin may have already reached its bottom if economic growth remains stable and the Fed avoids further rate increases.</p><div id="media_image-7" class="widget widget_media_image cfn-widget cfn-banner cfn-banner-article cfn-banner_728"><a href="https://t.me/EliteFXLabs" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"><img width="1280" height="698" src="https://cryptofrontnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/EliteFXLabsBanner-0.webp" class="image wp-image-44226 attachment-full size-full" alt="EliteFXLabs Banner" style="max-width: 100%; height: auto;"></a></div><p>However, Pandl said additional rate hikes driven by persistent inflation could extend the downturn. Grayscale also identified progress on the CLARITY Act as another factor affecting the market outlook.</p><h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="strong-strategy-sale-reduced-financing-concerns-strong"><strong>Strategy Sale Reduced Financing Concerns</strong></h2><p>Grayscale also revisited Strategy's recent treasury actions while discussing Bitcoin's market structure. On July 6, the firm examined Strategy's sale of 3,588 Bitcoin for about $216 million.</p><p>Strategy used the proceeds to meet preferred-share dividend obligations and increase its dollar reserve to about $2.55 billion. The firm said that balance could cover nearly 17 months of dividend payments.</p><p>Grayscale added that the stronger cash position reduced concerns about emergency funding or additional Bitcoin sales during periods of market volatility. However, Pandl said downside risks remain if the <a href="https://cryptofrontnews.com/senate-clarity-act-talks-continue-as-ethics-provisions-remain-key-sticking-point/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">CLARITY Act</a> stalls, treasury companies continue deleveraging, or the Federal Reserve resumes raising interest rates.</p><p>The post <a href="https://cryptofrontnews.com/grayscale-head-of-research-zach-pandl-says-bitcoin-bottom-depends-on-fed-policy/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl Says Bitcoin Bottom Depends on Fed Policy</a> appears on <a href="https://cryptofrontnews.com" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Crypto Front News</a>. Visit our website to read more interesting articles about cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, and digital assets.</p>

Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl Says Bitcoin Bottom Depends on Fed Policy

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