JUST

FIFA

Surge

<p>Kalshi, the regulated prediction market platform, is reportedly in talks to raise a new funding round at an approximately $40Bn valuation, nearly doubling its recent $22Bn valuation from a $1Bn Series F just seven weeks ago, according to the Financial Times.</p>
<p>This new round, potentially closing by Q3 2026, would increase Kalshi’s total equity raised to about $3.7 billion since its inception.</p>
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<p>The May 2026 Series F was led by Coatue, with participation from Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Morgan Stanley, and ARK Invest.</p>
<p>In contrast to struggling crypto and fintech firms, Kalshi’s rapid valuation increase highlights the market’s positive outlook on regulated prediction markets.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="kalshi-volume-and-revenue-deep-dive-16-81bn-in-may-178bn-annualized-and-an-800-surge-in-institutional-trading">Kalshi Volume and Revenue Deep-Dive: $16.81Bn in May, $178Bn Annualized, and an 800% Surge in Institutional Trading</h2>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img width="1024" height="872" src="https://tokenist.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Screenshot-2026-06-25-at-12.12.32-1024x872.png" alt="Kalshi is seeking a $40Bn raise less than two months after raising $22Bn in its Series F funding round, with an IPO slated to be next">
 <figcaption><a href="https://www.kalshidata.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">SOURCE: KalshiData.com</a>
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<p>Kalshi’s annualized trading volume surged to $178Bn by April 2025, a 32x increase from the previous year, highlighting growth in the prediction market space over the past 12 months.</p>
<p>In May 2026, monthly volume reached $16.81Bn, with annualized revenue at $2Bn, a significant rise from the previous year. Institutional trading volume grew 800% in six months, with Kalshi claiming over 90% of US prediction market activity.</p>
<p>Sports contracts drove the majority of volume, with $5.1Bn recorded during the FIFA World Cup’s first week, the highest for any prediction market. The platform generated over $23Bn in sports contract volume in 2025.</p>
<p>Additionally, crypto perpetual futures, launched in June as the first CFTC-regulated product in the US, added $5.5Bn in volume in their initial two weeks, positioning them as a key tool for customer acquisition.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="valuation-multiple-analysis-40bn-on-2bn-revenue-is-a-20x-multiple-that-prices-kalshi-as-an-exchange-infrastructure-play-not-a-consumer-app">Valuation Multiple Analysis: $40Bn on $2Bn Revenue Is a 20x Multiple That Prices Kalshi as an Exchange Infrastructure Play, Not a Consumer App</h2>
<p>Kalshi, valued at $40Bn with $2Bn in annualized revenue, has a 20x revenue multiple. This positions it closer to CME Group’s exchange-infrastructure premiums than to the consumer fintech sector, which has declined since 2021.</p>
<p>The valuation aligns with Sacra’s view of Kalshi as a “new asset class” operator, bolstered by its CFTC DCM designation. Philippe Laffont of Coatue suggested that “event contracts could become a trillion-dollar market,” implying that the 20x revenue multiple may be conservative.</p>
<p>However, public-market investors face uncertainty about the sustainability of this multiple, especially given that up to 90% of Kalshi’s revenue comes from sports contracts, which carry regulatory risks. Mansour has noted that an IPO is being discussed, but it’s unlikely before 2027.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="legal-and-regulatory-risk-12-state-lawsuits-and-a-jurisdictional-fight-that-may-reach-the-supreme-court">Legal and Regulatory Risk: 12+ State Lawsuits and a Jurisdictional Fight That May Reach the Supreme Court</h2>
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   <p>JUST IN: Kalshi sues Illinois officials over prediction markets restrictions, claiming irreparable harm as a July 1 law goes into effect. If upheld, regulatory pressure could shape on-chain event markets and broader compliance risk for civil finance bets. <a href="https://x.com/search?q=%24KALSHI&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">$KALSHI</a><a href="https://t.co/3vySVRFXGH" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">pic.twitter.com/3vySVRFXGH</a></p>— Bpay News (@bpaynews) <a href="https://x.com/bpaynews/status/2069867394969866262?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">June 24, 2026</a>
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<p>More than a dozen US states have sued Kalshi and Polymarket, alleging they operate unlicensed sports betting operations in violation of state gambling laws.</p>
<p>Kentucky’s attorney general alleged that 89% of Kalshi’s trading activity related to sports betting, with over $23Bn in sports contract volume in 2025.</p>
<p>Illinois passed a law requiring prediction market operators to obtain a state license, prompting Kalshi to file a federal lawsuit asserting that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over exchange-traded derivatives.</p>
<p>The CFTC has sued nine states to block such enforcement actions. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig emphasized that states can’t undermine federal law, while Kalshi’s DCM status forms a key part of its defense.</p>
<p>This jurisdictional issue may escalate to the Supreme Court, and a negative ruling on the classification of sports betting could significantly impact Kalshi’s business, as sports contracts account for up to 90% of its revenue.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="prediction-markets-as-an-asset-class-11bn-to-22bn-to-40bn-in-under-twelve-months-signals-institutional-capital-is-treating-event-contracts-as-a-distinct-category">Prediction Markets as an Asset Class: $11Bn to $22Bn to $40Bn in Under Twelve Months Signals Institutional Capital Is Treating Event Contracts as a Distinct Category</h2>
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   <p>It’s not surprising because Kalshi’s revenue is really high and it’s continuing to grow really really fast <br><br>And it’s easy to imagine kalshi scaling revenue 10x from here to $30-50m per day (which would warrant 40b Val) <br><br>Key risks are around regulation and they have a good track… <a href="https://t.co/JSNE1gaErh" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">https://t.co/JSNE1gaErh</a></p>— James Ross (@jamesrosst) <a href="https://x.com/jamesrosst/status/2070078000838631448?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">June 25, 2026</a>
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<p>Kalshi’s rapid valuation growth from an $11Bn Series E to a $40Bn target within a year, raising $2.685Bn across five rounds since June 2025, highlights institutional interest in regulated prediction markets rather than specific companies.</p>
<p>Bernstein notes that demand stems from bespoke trades and custom event contracts used by hedge funds to manage macro and geopolitical risks, distinct from retail sports betting.</p>
<p>Kalshi’s introduction of CFTC-regulated crypto perpetual futures marks a significant step toward full US compliance, a major advance for prediction market regulation.</p>
<p>As competition intensifies, with Kalshi generating $21.1Bn in volume in June 2026, compared to Polymarket’s $9.7Bn, fundraising becomes increasingly urgent.</p>
<p>Meta’s development of a competing prediction-market app, Meta Arena, further accelerates the need for Kalshi to solidify its market position.</p>
<p><em>The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All prices were quoted at the time of writing.</em></p>
<p>The post <a href="https://tokenist.com/kalshi-valuation-40-billion-funding-round/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Kalshi Targets $40Bn Valuation Seven Weeks After $22Bn Series F</a> appeared first on <a href="https://tokenist.com" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Tokenist</a>.</p>

Kalshi Targets $40Bn Valuation Seven Weeks After $22Bn Series F

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