bullish

Sharky

Bitcoin

Material

Rekt

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls made another attempt to reclaim the $80,000 level on Thursday, as traders expect price swings before and after the CLARITY Act vote.
Key takeaways:
<ul>
 <li>Odds of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 rose to 67% in May.</li>
 <li>BTC price must hold $78,000-$79,000 as support for a bullish push to $84,000 or higher.</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="a-67-chance-the-clarity-act-is-signed-into-law-in-2026">A 67% chance the CLARITY Act is signed into law in 2026</h2>
The CLARITY Act, a proposed US bill that would set clearer rules for how regulators oversee the crypto market and stablecoins, is scheduled for a Senate Banking Committee<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/coinbase-ceo-brian-armstrong-clarity-act-thursday-markup" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"> markup vote on Thursday</a>.
<img alt="Analysts are watching these Bitcoin price levels ahead of CLARITY Act vote" height="989" src="https://s3-images.ctmedia.io/media/content/pasted-image-631.png" width="1178">
Source: Cointelegraph
Prediction market traders say that there is a 67% chance that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law in 2026, <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">according to Polymarket</a>.
<img alt="Analysts are watching these Bitcoin price levels ahead of CLARITY Act vote" height="775" src="https://s3-images.ctmedia.io/media/content/pasted-image-632.png" width="1546">
Odds of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026. Source: Polymarket
Traders on rival site Kalshi <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcryptostructure/crypto-market-structure/kxcryptostructure-26jan" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">price-in</a> the odds of the Act becoming law before August and Dec. 31, 2026, at 62% and 67%, respectively.
If the CLARITY Act passes, it could clearly classify Bitcoin as a digital commodity under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight, reducing legal uncertainty for the industry and further legitimizing crypto in the US.&nbsp;
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-100k-in-q2-strategy-strc-unlocks-buy-3k-btc-two-days" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin to $100K in Q2? Strategy’s STRC unlocks potential to buy 3K BTC in two days</a>
Bitcoin is expected to react positively, similar to the GENIUS Act signed in July 2025, which provided the first major US stablecoin framework. Bitcoin was already trading near all-time highs and climbed further amid regulatory optimism.
MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe was bullish, <a href="https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2054846358889062424" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">saying</a>:
<blockquote>
 “Big day today with the CLARITY Act vote. Might be a historical day for everyone involved in Crypto and could, very well, signal the start of a stronger cycle.”
</blockquote>
Analyst Sharky predicts a <a href="https://x.com/SharkyWeb3/status/2054816212517847367" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">muted</a> immediate pump, with the real strong move coming “90 days later, when institutional money finally has legal clarity.”
Not all analysts were optimistic about the event, however, with trading resource Material Indicators <a href="https://x.com/MI_Algos/status/2054537533334151554" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">saying</a> the passing of the CLARITY Act is “somewhat baked-in to $BTC price,” adding:
<blockquote>
 “Passing it will likely deliver a knee-jerk reaction from the market that pumps price briefly, but like all narratives, that rally will fade.”
</blockquote>
As Cointelegraph <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-traders-expect-fast-move-90k-following-clarity-act-vote" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">reported</a>, some traders expect a quick move in Bitcoin price toward $90,000 following the CLARITY Act vote, supported by improving market conditions and easing selling pressure.
<h2 id="analysts-highlight-key-btc-price-levels-to-watch">Analysts highlight key BTC price levels to watch</h2>
Bitcoin may have delivered an <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-price-nears-82k-as-big-level-sparks-warning-of-fresh-macro-rejection" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">impressive bounce to $82,000</a> last week, but the bullish sentiment was <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/markets/this-bitcoin-price-level-will-be-end-of-bears-if-broken-analyst" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">dampened by resistance from the 200-day moving averages</a> around this level.
The <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-overbought-signal-flashes-price-top-warning-78k" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">support at $78,000 remains key</a> for bulls, representing the short-term holder realized price and the true market mean.
This coincides with the 21-week exponential moving average (green line), as <a href="https://x.com/rektcapital/status/2054585933484228941" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">highlighted</a> by analyst Rekt Capital in the chart below, saying:
<blockquote>
 “Downside wicking below it would be fine as long as price ends the week with a weekly candle close above the EMA to confirm it as retested support.”
</blockquote>
<img alt="Analysts are watching these Bitcoin price levels ahead of CLARITY Act vote" height="927" src="https://s3-images.ctmedia.io/media/content/pasted-image-89.jpeg" width="1199">
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: X/Rekt Capital
Bitcoin’s realized price by age cohorts reveals another major level of support sitting further down: the cost basis of the 1-week-to-1-month investor cohort at $76,900.
“The momentum of the ongoing rally has been driven largely by a wave of accumulation over the past 30 days,” Glassnode <a href="https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-19-2026/?utm_campaign=woc_19_2026&amp;utm_medium=woc_newsletter&amp;utm_source=email" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">said</a> in its latest Week Onchain newsletter, adding:
<blockquote>
 “This cohort's cost basis now sits at approximately $76.9K, forming the most immediate support floor in the short term.”
</blockquote>
<img alt="Analysts are watching these Bitcoin price levels ahead of CLARITY Act vote" height="1008" src="https://s3-images.ctmedia.io/media/content/pasted-image-633.png" width="2048">
Bitcoin realized price by age. Source: Glassnode
On the upside, the cost basis of investors who accumulated BTC during the November 2025-February consolidation period at $86,900 represents the “most probable near-term resistance zone as these holders approach breakeven and face a growing incentive to distribute into strength,” the onchain data provider added.&nbsp;
Crypto trader and analyst Daan Crypto Trades <a href="https://x.com/DaanCrypto/status/2054521343756972407" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">said</a> a break above $82,000 will see <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-in-disbelief-rally-as-traders-eye-84k-btc-price-next" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">BTC rise to fill the CME gap at $84,000</a>, eventually “continuing quite a lot higher” from that point.
<img alt="Analysts are watching these Bitcoin price levels ahead of CLARITY Act vote" height="1275" src="https://s3-images.ctmedia.io/media/content/pasted-image-634.png" width="1173">
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: X/Daan Crypto Trades
As Cointelegraph <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/markets/price-predictions-513-btc-eth-bnb-xrp-sol-doge-hype-ada-zec-bch" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">reported</a>, key support levels for the bulls were the 20-day EMA at $79,000 and the 50-day SMA at $74,000, while bears were expected to defend $84,000.

Analysts are watching these Bitcoin price levels ahead of CLARITY Act vote

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