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<p>Bitcoin broke past $81,000 today for the first time since late January. That’s good news for crypto. But we are still in a bear market. So the real question is: can this rally last?</p>
<p>Santiment posted data that throws cold water on the move. On-chain activity just hit two-year lows. Normally, <a href="https://captainaltcoin.com/bitcoin-price-news-btc-breaks-80k-for-first-time-since-january-but-analyst-warns-mid-term-cycle-danger/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">a Bitcoin price rally</a> brings more users and more wallets. That’s not happening. Let’s dig into what that means.</p>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="santiment-bitcoin-on-chain-activity-falls-to-2-year-lows">Santiment: Bitcoin On-Chain Activity Falls to 2-Year Lows</h3>
<p>Santiment tweeted the numbers. Bitcoin has 531,000 active wallets making transfers daily. The network creates 203,000 new wallets daily. Both numbers are scraping two-year lows.</p>
<p>Here’s the disconnect. Bitcoin just returned above $80,000 for the first time in three months. Yet network activity keeps falling. You’d expect rising prices to attract more users. More wallet creations. More on-chain buzz. That’s not the case.</p>
<p>Instead, price climbs on thin participation. A smaller group of players pushes the market higher. There’s no broad wave of new or returning users. The price rose 22% in the past five weeks. But the foundation looks weak.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image aligncenter size-large"><img width="1024" height="575" src="https://captainaltcoin.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/image-196-1024x575.png" alt="">
 <figcaption><strong>Source: <a href="https://x.com/SantimentData/status/2051385147505930732?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">X/@SantimentData</a></strong>
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When only a few addresses stay active and new wallets barely grow, large-scale adoption isn’t here. Historically on Santiment’s data, price increases without growing on-chain participation break easily. There’s less buying fuel behind the move. If big holders take profits, fresh demand from new users may not absorb the selling.</p>
<p>Here’s the paradox. Two-year lows in network activity can also mean Bitcoin is coiled for a much bigger move upward. Activity bottoms often mark the end of apathy. If price already recovers to $80,000 with participation this low, imagine what happens when retail interest finally wakes up. Daily active addresses climbing back toward the 100K+ new wallet levels from 2024–2025 would light a fire.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="strong-ali-martinez-weekly-macd-crossover-says-100-000-is-possible-strong"><strong>Ali Martinez: Weekly MACD Crossover Says $100,000 Is Possible</strong></h2>
<p>Crypto analyst Ali Martinez shared a weekly Bitcoin chart. He asked a direct question: <a href="https://captainaltcoin.com/bitcoin-price-to-85k-analyst-calls-it-fud-as-btc-is-set-to-mirror-gold-and-silver/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">is Bitcoin heading to</a> $100,000?</p>
<p>BTC continues to show structural strength. On April 13, a bullish MACD crossover appeared on the weekly chart. Since then, price rose 15% steadily.</p>
<p>This specific weekly crossover has a strong track record:</p>
<ul>
 <li>October 23, 2023: led to a 147% rally.</li>
 <li>October 14, 2024: resulted in a 75% rally.</li>
 <li>May 5, 2025: led to a 35% rally.</li>
</ul>
<p>Each time, the crossover marked the start of a multi-month trend. Now we have another one from April 13, 2026.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image aligncenter size-large"><img width="819" height="1024" src="https://captainaltcoin.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/image-197-819x1024.png" alt="">
 <figcaption><strong>Source: <a href="https://x.com/alicharts/status/2051512459635392780?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">X/@alicharts</a></strong>
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On the daily chart, Bitcoin approaches the 200 SMA at 83,000. That’s the biggest psychological and structural barrier right now. A clean daily close above 83,000 clears the path for macro expansion toward 89,000. The next target after that sits at 94,000.</p>
<p>The weekly chart shows price up 35.23% from the crossover low. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MACD" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">MACD</a> lines turned positive. The histogram flipped green. Momentum is building, not fading. If history repeats, this rally has room to run.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="strong-why-is-bitcoin-price-rising-today-may-5-strong"><strong>Why Is Bitcoin Price Rising Today (May 5)?</strong></h2>
<p>Several forces pushed Bitcoin past $81,000.</p>
<p>Strong institutional flows provided a tailwind. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $162.8 million in net inflows for the week ending May 1. One single day saw $630 million pour in. Bitcoin’s market dominance rose to 60.73%, meaning capital is rotating from altcoins into BTC.</p>
<p>U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs pulled in another <strong>$532 million on May 4</strong>, marking the third straight day of inflows. Ethereum spot ETFs added <strong>$61.29 million</strong> on the same day.</p>
<p>Institutional money continues to flow in even as on-chain activity remains low; buyers are clearly showing up through the ETF channel rather than directly on-chain.</p>
<p>Geopolitics also changed. Reports of de-escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions and a ceasefire in their 2026 conflict eased fears of a broader energy shock. That reduced a major macro overhang. Risk assets like crypto got a boost.</p>
<p>Miner economics improved. The expected daily return for miners hit $37 per petahash per second, the highest since late January. Better miner profitability reduces selling pressure.</p>
<p>The rally also triggered $270 million in short liquidations. Squeezed shorts added fuel to the fire. All of this happened alongside that $630 million ETF inflow day.</p>
<p><em><span><strong>Read also: <a href="https://captainaltcoin.com/chatgpt-predicts-where-bitcoin-xrp-and-solana-will-go-if-the-clarity-act-passes-in-may/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">ChatGPT Predicts Where Bitcoin, XRP, and Solana Will Go If the Clarity Act Passes in May</a></strong></span></em></p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="strong-bitcoin-price-prediction-for-today-may-5-strong"><strong>Bitcoin Price Prediction for Today (May 5)</strong></h2>
<p><strong>Bullish scenario</strong><br>BTC breaks and holds above 83,000 (200 SMA). That opens the door to 89,000 quickly. If volume picks up, $94,000 becomes the next target. This requires continued ETF inflows and a clean daily close above resistance.</p>
<p><strong>Bearish scenario</strong><br>Price rejects at 83,000 and falls back below 80,000. Support at 77,000 gets tested. A break there leads to 75,000. Thin on-chain activity means fewer buyers to catch a falling knife.</p>
<p><strong>Realistic scenario</strong><br>Range trading between 80,000 and 83,000 for the next few days. Bulls need a catalyst to break the 200 SMA. Bears need a spike in selling volume. Most likely, price chops sideways until the next ETF inflow report or macro news hits.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="faqs">FAQs</h2>
<div class="wp-block-uagb-faq uagb-faq__outer-wrap uagb-block-82dc26f3 uagb-faq-icon-row-reverse uagb-faq-layout-accordion uagb-faq-expand-first-false uagb-faq-inactive-other-true uagb-faq__wrap uagb-buttons-layout-wrap uagb-faq-equal-height ">
 <div class="wp-block-uagb-faq-child uagb-faq-child__outer-wrap uagb-faq-item uagb-block-2970d97a ">
  <div class="uagb-faq-questions-button uagb-faq-questions"><span></span><span></span><span><strong>Why is Bitcoin price going up today<img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/72x72/2753.png" alt="❓"></strong></span>
  </div>
  <div class="uagb-faq-content">
   <p>ETF inflows hit $162.8 million for the week, and U.S.-Iran tensions de-escalated. A $270 million short squeeze also pushed price higher.</p>
  </div>
 </div>
 <div class="wp-block-uagb-faq-child uagb-faq-child__outer-wrap uagb-faq-item uagb-block-50b37f5f ">
  <div class="uagb-faq-questions-button uagb-faq-questions"><span></span><span></span><span><strong>Is Bitcoin likely to increase again<img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/72x72/2753.png" alt="❓"></strong></span>
  </div>
  <div class="uagb-faq-content">
   <p>Yes, if ETF inflows continue and BTC closes above $83,000. But on-chain activity remains weak, so the move could stall without fresh retail demand.</p>
  </div>
 </div>
 <div class="wp-block-uagb-faq-child uagb-faq-child__outer-wrap uagb-faq-item uagb-block-5cd116d6 ">
  <div class="uagb-faq-questions-button uagb-faq-questions"><span></span><span></span><span><strong>Why did the crypto market go up today<img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/72x72/2753.png" alt="❓"></strong></span>
  </div>
  <div class="uagb-faq-content">
   <p>Bitcoin led the rally on institutional buying and better macro sentiment. Altcoins followed BTC’s move upward.</p>
  </div>
 </div>
</div>
<p><em><strong>Subscribe to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@Captain-Altcoin" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">our YouTube channel</a> for daily crypto updates, market insights, and expert analysis.</strong></em></p>
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<p>The post <a href="https://captainaltcoin.com/bitcoin-price-today-btc-breaks-81k-but-on-chain-activity-hits-2-year-lows-heres-the-data/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin Price Today: BTC Breaks $81K, But On-Chain Activity Hits 2-Year Lows – Here’s the Data</a> appeared first on <a href="https://captainaltcoin.com" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">CaptainAltcoin</a>.</p>

Bitcoin Price Today: BTC Breaks $81K, But On-Chain Activity Hits 2-Year Lows – Here’s the Data

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