Thomas

Bitcoin

Gold

Gold has had a pretty intense time for the past month, ever since the United States-Israel-Iran <a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/geopolitics-oil-and-markets-why-investors-are-watching-the-iran-conflict-closely" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">conflict </a>began.
But Goldman Sachs is standing by its gold bull <a href="https://www.thestreet.com/investing/goldman-sachs-revamps-gold-price-target-for-the-rest-of-2026" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">thesis</a>, even as the precious metal absorbs one of its sharpest pullbacks in recent memory.&nbsp;
In a note to clients, analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven reiterated their year-end target of $5,400 an ounce, Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-31/goldman-still-sees-gold-at-5-400-by-year-end-despite-downturn" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">reported</a> on April 2.
They pointed to continued central bank buying and two expected U.S. rate cuts before December as the key drivers of a medium-term recovery.
<a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/newsroom/gold-surges-as-us-israel-strikes-on-iran" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Related: Gold Surges Past $5,340 as US-Israel Strikes on Iran</a>
<h2 id="gold-and-bitcoin-one-month-of-war-driven-volatility">Gold and Bitcoin: one month of war-driven volatility</h2>
Since the U.S.-Iran conflict erupted in late February 2026, both gold and Bitcoin have traded in sharp, sentiment-driven swings.&nbsp;
After the initial highs, gold has shed&nbsp;6.60% in the past month&nbsp;as equity liquidations and tighter monetary policy expectations weighed on positioning.&nbsp;
At press time, one ounce of gold was trading at $4,676.55 after a 2.2% drop in the past 24 hours and over 16% drop from its all-time high of $5,608, which it reached in January 2026.
Bitcoin has mirrored the risk-off mood, declining alongside equities as institutional investors reduced exposure to volatile assets. However, it has shown signs of more resilience than gold in certain moments.&nbsp;
In the past month, Bitcoin has dropped only&nbsp;1.8% and has been range-bound between $60,000 and $70,000, with occasional movements above the latter.&nbsp;
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 2.4% and trading near&nbsp;$66,852.50, as per CoinGecko. But it is also a&nbsp;46.9% drop from its all-time high of $126,000 from October 2025.
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<h2 id="the-bullish-case-is-intact-but-bruised">The bullish case is intact but bruised</h2>
Goldman Sachs ' confidence rests on sustained demand. Goldman expects central bank purchases to average around 60 tons a month once price volatility moderates. This would provide a structural floor that has underpinned gold's multi-year rally.
But the near-term picture is slightly darker.&nbsp;
Goldman flagged "tactical downside risks," warning that gold could fall as low as $3,800 an ounce if the energy supply shock stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict continues to <a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/iran-president-questions-trumps-america-first-policy-in-letter-to-u-s-public" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">worsen.</a>&nbsp;
This would be about an 19% drop in price at the current levels.
The bank also addressed fears that some central banks might liquidate gold reserves to defend their currencies, a concern that has circulated since the war began. Goldman dismissed it, adding that Gulf nations are far more likely to sell U.S. <a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/us-treasury-yields-rise-amid-war-tensions" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Treasuries</a>, given that they predominantly operate dollar pegs.
On the upside, the analysts noted that an acceleration in diversification away from traditional Western assets driven by the geopolitical climate could push gold significantly beyond their base case target.
<a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/gold-giant-becomes-major-buyer-of-u-s-debt" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Related: Gold giant becomes major buyer of U.S. debt</a>

Goldman Sachs predicts new low for gold

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