Celsius

2026

Milk

Bitcoin

Terra

Bitcoin may already be two months into a bear market, according to certain metrics such as the one-year moving average, says CryptoQuant’s head of research.
During an episode of the Milk Road show on Thursday, CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9DkdPCjdEk" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">said</a> most of the metrics he uses for the <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/learn/articles/bull-vs-bear-crypto-market-what-is-the-difference-and-how-to-handle-both" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">bull score index</a> turned <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bear-market-confirmed-watch-btc-price-levels-next" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">bearish in early November</a> and have yet to recover.
The index measures market conditions using indicators like network activity, investor profitability, Bitcoin demand, and liquidity, and ranges from 0 to 100.
<blockquote>
 “For me the last confirmation, it's a technical indicator, which is the price going below its one-year moving average, that's the technical indicator that I would say confirms this.”&nbsp;
</blockquote>
A one-year moving average is the average price of an asset over 12 months, and used to show long-term trends.&nbsp;
The price of Bitcoin (<a href="/bitcoin-price" rel="noopener noreferrer">BTC</a>) started 2025 at around $93,000 and peaked at $126,080 in October before ending the year lower than it began, <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">according</a> to crypto data aggregator CoinGecko.
If Bitcoin is in a bear market, it goes against <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-in-2026-predictions-vs-charts-and-reality" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_self">many analyst predictions</a> that see 2026 as a growth year for Bitcoin.
<h2 id="bitcoin-bottom-could-be-around-56-000-to-60-000">Bitcoin bottom could be around $56,000 to $60,000</h2>
Past <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-predictions-bias-sellers-bear-market-crypto-analyst" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">crypto bear markets</a> have seen significant drawdowns across the sector, and can take years for prices to recover.
Bitcoin is trading around $88,543 as of Friday; however, Moreno predicts that over the coming year, the bear market bottom will likely be in the $56,000 to $60,000 range, based on Bitcoin’s realized price and past performance.
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 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2026-01/019b7c9d-36da-7d82-aaee-74cad72663e3.png" title="" alt="Metric suggests Bitcoin has been in a bear market for 2 months">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 The bottom price for the bear market will likely come within the next year, Moreno predicts. Source: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9DkdPCjdEk" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">YouTube&nbsp;</a>
 </figcaption>
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“Historically, what happened in previous bear markets, you see the price coming down to what is called the realized price, which is basically the average price at which the holders of Bitcoin purchased their Bitcoin,” Moreno said.
“It deviates a lot to the upside in the bull market and then when there’s a bear market, that should be the, I would say maybe the base expectation for a bottom for a price bottom during a bear market,” he added.
<h2 id="bear-market-drawdown-less-intense-this-time">Bear market drawdown less intense this time</h2>
A drop from Bitcoin’s all-time high to $56,000 represents a roughly 55% drawdown, which Moreno said could be seen as a positive, since it’s been much higher previously.
“If you want to see it in a positive way, from the all-time high, the drawdown is really not as high as we have had in previous bear markets when we have had drawdowns of 70%, 80%. This will be just like a 55% from the all-time high,” he said.
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/is-bitcoin-four-year-cycle-dead-2025" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Final nail in 4-year cycle? BTC ends year after halving in red</a>
At the same time, Moreno argues that this bear market is already more stable because there have been no high-profile crypto-related collapses.&nbsp;
During the 2022 bear market, the <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/terra-rescue-plan-still-at-large-as-luna-falls-below-5-bitcoin-spikes-to-138k-in-ust" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Terra ecosystem</a> collapsed in May, followed by the <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/celsius-exits-bankruptcy-return-3b-creditors-ionic-digital" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_self">Celsius Network in June</a> and <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/three-years-ftx-collapse-crypto-creditors-exchangeearns-back-trust" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_self">FTX in November</a>, sending shockwaves through the sector.
There are also large <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/strategy-bitcoin-purchase-active-2025-accumulation" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_self">institutional players steadily accumulating crypto</a> regularly, a bigger pool of traders and investors willing to step into the market, and more reliable companies and projects in the sector.
<blockquote>
 “Talking about demand again, there are other types of players now that buy more periodically. In previous bear markets, the demand was basically, you know contracting. I would say that structurally, we now have more like institutional or ETFs that don't sell, and also there's some buying there.”
</blockquote>
Magazine: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/how-crypto-laws-changed-2025-further-2026/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026</a>

Metric suggests Bitcoin has been in a bear market for 2 months

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