Ethereum

Santa

Bitcoin

Planet

Record

<h4>Quick Breakdown&nbsp;</h4>
<ul>
 <li>Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetual open interest dropped by $3B and $2B, respectively, ahead of Christmas, increasing squeeze risk.</li>
 <li>Record 300k BTC options contracts (~$23.7B) expire this Friday, with max pain near $95k, influencing market dynamics.</li>
 <li>Holiday flows and tax-loss harvesting may amplify short-term volatility, but markets are likely to stay range-bound into 2026.</li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
Bitcoin (BTC) remains range-bound heading into Christmas week, even as gold hits fresh all-time highs, <a href="https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/us-colour-2/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">according to QCP Asia</a>. Liquidity has thinned significantly as traders close positions ahead of the holidays. BTC perpetual open interest across major exchanges dropped by roughly $3 billion overnight, while Ethereum (ETH) perpetual OI fell about $2 billion. Although leveraged positions have declined, thin market depth keeps squeezing risk elevated, with BTC historically experiencing 5–7% swings during this period, often tied to year-end options expiries.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
 QCP said weakening liquidity ahead of the Christmas holiday and year-end institutional deleveraging have kept BTC range-bound. BTC and ETH perpetual open interest fell by roughly $3 billion and $2 billion, respectively. QCP added that year-end tax-loss selling could increase…
 — Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) <a href="https://twitter.com/WuBlockchain/status/2003358086107668605?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">December 23, 2025</a>
</blockquote>

<h3 id="span-options-expiry-drives-market-dynamics-span">Options expiry drives market dynamics</h3>
This Friday’s record expiry involves approximately 300k BTC option contracts, equivalent to $23.7 billion, along with 446k IBIT contracts. The Boxing Day expiry alone accounts for over half of Deribit’s total open interest, concentrated at $85k and $100k strikes, with a max pain level near $95k. Open interest for the $85k puts has eased, while $100k calls remain stable, reflecting limited optimism for a potential Santa rally. BTC risk reversals suggest less bearish sentiment than in the past month, with the curve gradually normalising toward pre-October levels.
<h3 id="span-holiday-flows-and-volatility-considerations-span">Holiday flows and volatility considerations</h3>
Additional market pressures stem from tax-loss harvesting ahead of the December 31 deadline. Unlike equities, crypto investors can realise losses and immediately re-establish positions, a dynamic that can amplify short-term volatility in thin markets. Historical patterns show holiday-driven moves often mean-revert as liquidity returns in January. QCP Asia notes that, absent a decisive directional break, Bitcoin and broader crypto markets are likely to remain range-bound, caught between declining leverage, options-related flows, and conflicting narratives as 2026 approaches.
Meanwhile, BTC <a href="https://defi-planet.com/2025/11/bitcoin-shows-early-recovery-as-markets-eye-fed-rate-cuts-qcp-asia/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">shows</a> tentative signs of stabilization following dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials that have raised expectations of a December rate cut. Traders now price in roughly a 75% probability of a rate reduction next month, up from 30–40% just last Thursday, providing a potential tailwind for year-end market positioning.
&nbsp;
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The post <a href="https://defi-planet.com/2025/12/qcp-asia-bitcoin-range-bound-as-holiday-liquidity-thins/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">QCP Asia: Bitcoin Range-Bound as Holiday Liquidity Thins</a> appeared first on <a href="https://defi-planet.com" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">DeFi Planet</a>.

QCP Asia: Bitcoin Range-Bound as Holiday Liquidity Thins

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