Bitcoin

Gold

Grayscale

<p>Gold breaks records, global liquidity explodes, but bitcoin lags behind. This divergence raises questions : why does the flagship crypto asset, supposed to protect against monetary dilution, not react ? A Bitwise report reveals an unprecedented valuation gap between BTC and money supply growth. Market error or major opportunity ? The lines could move, and faster than we think.</p>
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  <h2 class="in-brief--title" id="in-brief">In brief</h2>
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   <li>Bitcoin remains below the $100,000 mark while global liquidity reaches record levels.</li>
   <li>A Bitwise report reveals a 66 % valuation gap between BTC and global monetary growth.</li>
   <li>According to their models, the theoretical fair value of bitcoin could be around $270,000.</li>
   <li>2026 could mark a turning point if the market finally reacts to current macroeconomic fundamentals.</li>
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<h2 id="bitcoin-facing-a-historic-undervaluation-according-to-bitwise">Bitcoin facing a historic undervaluation according to Bitwise</h2>
<p>In its latest macroeconomic report dedicated to bitcoin, <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/bitwise-expert-sees-best-risk-reward-since-covid/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">the asset manager Bitwise reveals a major undervaluation of the asset</a> compared to the global monetary environment.</p>
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<p><em>“Bitcoin underperforms the global money supply by 66%, implying a fair value close to 270,000 dollars”</em>, <a href="https://bitwiseinvestments.eu/blog/regular-updates/bitcoin_s_2026_mispricing-12-2025/#h3" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">explains</a> the report, based on a cointegration model between BTC and the global monetary aggregate M2, currently estimated at 137 trillion dollars. This gap would mark one of the largest discrepancies ever observed between the <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/crypto-markets/bitcoin-btc-en/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">price of BTC</a> and macroeconomic fundamentals.</p>
<p>Bitwise puts this situation into perspective with a series of cyclical signals which, according to the report, strengthen the thesis of a largely undervalued BTC. Here are <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-mispricing-deepens-as-btc-trades-under-dollar100k-bitwise" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">the key elements</a> :</p>
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 <li>66 % undervaluation of BTC relative to global money supply growth, according to their model ;</li>
 <li>Estimated fair value : $270,000, against a current market price well below $100,000 ;</li>
 <li>Expanding global liquidity : more than 320 rate cuts worldwide in two years ;</li>
 <li>The end of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) program on December 1<sup>st</sup> ;</li>
 <li>A $110 billion stimulus in Japan, a resumption of quantitative easing in Canada, and a $1.4 trillion budget plan in China.</li>
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<p>According to Bitwise, the absence of a Bitcoin market reaction to these factors reflects a rarely seen asymmetric opportunity in the recent history of the asset. The current gap between its price and its theoretical liquidity anchor would represent an upside potential of +194 %, if bitcoin realigns with the implicit levels derived from money supply.</p>
<p><em>“BTC is historically the most sensitive barometer to monetary dilution due to its absolute scarcity,”</em> the report reminds.</p>
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<h2 id="h-when-gold-captures-flows">When gold captures flows</h2>
<p>From a complementary perspective, some analysts note that gold has absorbed most of the flows related to fears of monetary dilution this year, to the detriment of bitcoin.</p>
<p>According to Jurrien Timmer, Global Macro Director at Fidelity, <em>“the current Bitcoin trend configuration is lagging behind gold, both in terms of momentum and Sharpe ratio, placing the two assets at opposite extremes.”</em></p>
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<p>This last indicator, which measures risk-adjusted return, clearly shows gold’s outperformance over bitcoin in this monetary cycle phase. Timmer does not talk about an imminent reversal, but about a possible mean reversion configuration, implying this divergence could reverse.</p>
<p>Despite this relative underperformance, Timmer remains cautious about the long-term outlook. He says bitcoin <em>“remains broadly aligned with its long-term adoption curve based on a power law,”</em> while noting that its returns become less explosive as the asset matures.</p>
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<p>He even compares it to <em>“an early younger brother of gold, in a maturity phase.”</em> This metaphor illustrates the current perception : an asset that retains its fundamentals but whose market cycles are more complex, less impulsive, and perhaps more institutionalized.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/13-5b-fed-injection-fails-to-move-bitcoin-price/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Grayscale predicts peaks for bitcoin as early as 2026</a>. It remains to be seen whether the market will confirm this scenario or extend this wait-and-see cycle. Between perceived undervaluation and persistent uncertainty, BTC remains at a crossroads.</p>

BTC Lags Behind Global Money Growth

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