fire

Trader

Cipher

Bitcoin

Key points:
<ul>
 <li>Bitcoin sees a modest rebound into the weekly candle close, but traders see key resistance overhead.</li>
 <li>BTC price action risks a much deeper drop if bulls fail to reclaim that resistance zone.</li>
 <li>Fibonacci analysis hints that such a drop may not pass more than 10%.</li>
</ul>
Bitcoin (<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price">BTC</a>) returned above $111,000 into Sunday’s weekly close as analysis saw “promising” recovery signs.
<figure>
 <img alt="Bitcoin taps $111.3K as forecast says 10% dip ‘worst case scenario’" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-09/01992404-c6a9-7167-8d63-8cc028ecfc91" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView 
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<h2 id="btc-price-logical-bounce-zone-near-100-000">BTC price “logical” bounce zone near $100,000</h2>
Data from <a href="https://subscription.cointelegraph.com/?_gl=1*enpnlb*_ga*MTE3NDE3MjgzMC4xNzE1NjcwODE1*_ga_53R24TEEB1*MTc0NDcyNDI2NS40MS4xLjE3NDQ3MjQyNjkuNTYuMC45MTY3MzAwMzI." rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Cointelegraph Markets Pro</a> and <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/?exchange=BITSTAMP" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">TradingView</a> showed BTC/USD gaining about 1% on the day to hit local highs of $111,369.
The pair’s latest dip, which <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-ignores-major-us-payrolls-miss-erase-113-4k-surge" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">followed US macroeconomic data</a>, saw bulls preserve $110,000 support.
“This is actually promising on $BTC,” crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe <a href="https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/1964617992605757637" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">responded</a> on X.
<blockquote>
 “It makes a new higher low and holds the support at $110K. Would be great if we crack $112K and fire up the bull run.”
</blockquote>
<figure>
 <img alt="Bitcoin taps $111.3K as forecast says 10% dip ‘worst case scenario’" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-09/019923ff-dbc6-77f2-9f2b-4c1502d38fb7" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USDT one-day chart with RSI data. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Market participants continued to hold diverging views over short-term BTC price action. Popular trader Cipher X suggested that $112,000 could spark new lows should bulls fail to reclaim it next.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
 <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">$BTC</a> holds around $111K, but structure hints at a possible dip If momentum stalls below $112K, I expect a pullback toward $108K support Nothing major is happening across the market right now - it’s the weekend so best to stay patient and relaxed. <a href="https://t.co/JP8lUHoKNz" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">pic.twitter.com/JP8lUHoKNz</a>— Cipher X (@Cipher2X) <a href="https://twitter.com/Cipher2X/status/1964619401514336514?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">September 7, 2025</a>
</blockquote>
“We either flip $113,000 and pump to new highs, or if we reject here we drop to $100,000,” fellow trader Crypto Tony <a href="https://x.com/CryptoTony__/status/1964585677917458465" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">added</a> on the day, adopting a more categorical perspective based on the weekly chart.
Trader TurboBullCapital referenced the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at $115,035 and $101,760, respectively, as important levels to watch going forward.
“Lose the $107k area &amp; the downside target becomes the $101k level which also happens to coincide with the MA200,” part of an X post <a href="https://x.com/TurboBull21/status/1964638580598521973" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">concluded</a>.&nbsp;
<blockquote>
 “This is a logical area to expect a bounce.”
</blockquote>
<figure>
 <img alt="Bitcoin taps $111.3K as forecast says 10% dip ‘worst case scenario’" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-09/01992402-e975-71d0-9140-a62d923e6725" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USD one-day chart with 50, 200SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<h2 id="bitcoin-s-worst-case-scenario-coincides-with-100-000">Bitcoin’s “worst case scenario” coincides with $100,000</h2>
As <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-sets-2024-style-bear-trap-major-short-squeeze-trader" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Cointelegraph reported</a>, one theory on longer timeframes involves market makers on exchange order books.
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bear-market-in-october-with-50k-bottom-target-analysis" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="Bitcoin bear market due in October with $50K bottom target: Analysis">Bitcoin bear market due in October with $50K bottom target: Analysis</a>
Short sellers and bears, it suggests, could be the victims of manipulation prior to a giant short squeeze event taking the market to new all-time highs. This would echo price action in late 2024.
In the meantime, Fibonacci retracement levels imply a maximum drop of 10%, again based on historical behavior since the end of last year.
“$BTC usually bottoms at 0.382 Fibonacci level. This happened in Q3 2024, Q2 2025 and will probably happen again,” popular trader ZYN <a href="https://x.com/Zynweb3/status/1964610365263896958" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">observed</a>.
<blockquote>
 “For anyone wondering how low we can go, 0.382 Fibonacci level is currently around $100K. So the worst case scenario is a 10% drop before a 50% rally above $150,000.”
</blockquote>
<figure>
 <img alt="Bitcoin taps $111.3K as forecast says 10% dip ‘worst case scenario’" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-09/01992401-5143-7e88-9651-24151e1e5619" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USDT one-week chart. Source: ZYN/X
 </figcaption>
</figure>
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin taps $111.3K as forecast says 10% dip ‘worst case scenario’

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