Latest Usual (USUAL) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Token Unlock Sell Pressure (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
On 11 November 2025, USUAL unlocked 175 million tokens (18.87% of circulating supply), per Wu Blockchain. Such events often lead to short-term selling as early investors and teams liquidate holdings.

What this means:
The unlock coincided with USUAL’s 30-day price decline of -18.9%, suggesting sustained selling pressure. With only $8.3M in 24h trading volume, the market struggles to absorb new supply without price slippage.

What to watch:
Holders’ on-chain movements – large transfers to exchanges could prolong downside.

2. Bearish Technical Structure (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
USUAL trades below all key moving averages (7-day SMA: $0.0264; 30-day SMA: $0.0295), and the RSI-14 sits at 43.62, neither oversold nor bullish. The MACD histogram remains negative, reinforcing bearish momentum.

What this means:
Technical traders often interpret sustained breaks below SMAs as signals to exit positions. The lack of bullish reversal patterns (e.g., higher lows) suggests weak buying interest.

Key level to watch:
A sustained break above the 30-day SMA ($0.0295) could signal trend reversal.

3. Risk-Off Altcoin Sentiment (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
The crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 25 (“Fear”), while Bitcoin dominance holds at 58.57%, per CoinMarketCap. Investors favor Bitcoin over altcoins during uncertainty.

What this means:
USUAL’s 90-day correlation with Bitcoin is +0.72, but its smaller market cap ($39.3M) makes it more vulnerable to liquidity shifts. Declining altcoin season metrics (Bitcoin Season Index: 21) reflect capital rotation away from riskier assets.

Conclusion

USUAL’s decline reflects a mix of token unlock oversupply, weak technicals, and a risk-averse market. While its revenue-sharing model (70% buybacks, 30% staker rewards) offers long-term value, short-term headwinds dominate.

Key watch: Can USUAL’s buyback program counterbalance unlock-related selling? Monitor on-chain buyback activity for clues.

Deep Dive

1. Buyback Momentum (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Usual’s team has repurchased 15.7M tokens (~$418K at current prices) since July 2025, with all buybacks verifiable on-chain. This reduces sell pressure and signals confidence in the protocol’s revenue-sharing model.

What this means: Buybacks shrink circulating supply (1.55B tokens) while aligning incentives for long-term holders. With 70% of USUAL staked and 55% locked, the program amplifies scarcity effects.

What to look out for: Continued buyback execution and transparency via their Dune dashboard.

2. Exchange Listings & Liquidity (Mixed Impact)

Overview: USUAL was listed on Biconomy on October 31, 2025, expanding access to its USD0 stablecoin ecosystem. Daily volume rose to $8.88M, though turnover (volume/market cap) remains low at 0.215.

What this means: New listings often trigger speculative spikes, but USUAL’s -50% 60-day return suggests weak sustained demand. The protocol’s TVL ($646M as of May 2025) hasn’t translated to token price resilience.

3. Technical Rebound vs. Macro Downtrend (Bearish Bias)

Overview: USUAL’s RSI (44.99) rebounded from oversold levels, but price remains below all key moving averages (7-day: $0.0268, 30-day: $0.0296). The MACD histogram (-0.000092) confirms bearish momentum.

What this means: The 24h gain appears corrective within a broader downtrend. Resistance looms at the 7-day SMA ($0.0268), while a break below $0.0242 (May 2025 swing low) could accelerate losses.

Conclusion

USUAL’s minor rally reflects buybacks and exchange-driven liquidity, but structural challenges persist—including a 53.5% 90-day drop and fading DeFi stablecoin dominance. Key watch: Can protocol revenue (70% allocated to buybacks) outpace sell pressure from November’s 175M token unlock?