Usual (USUAL) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Buybacks & Staking Mechanics (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
The UIP-9 proposal (passed Aug 2025) directs 70% of protocol revenue to buybacks while requiring 1-12 month locks for full rewards. With $27M annual revenue, this could remove ~$19M/year of sell pressure. Currently, 70% of USUAL is staked, with 55% locked long-term.

What this means:
Buybacks create structural demand, but effectiveness depends on revenue sustainability. The 30-day price drop (-30.52%) suggests markets question whether buybacks can offset Nov’s 18.87% supply unlock. Locked staking reduces liquid supply but risks "sell-the-news" if APYs disappoint post-unlock.

2. Real-World Asset Competition (Bearish Risk)

Overview:
USUAL’s $635M TVL in yield-bearing stablecoins (USD0++) competes with projects like ALLO (+2.8% post-listing) in the RWA sector. The GENIUS Act (July 2025) mandates stricter stablecoin collateralization, which USD0’s Treasury bill backing already meets.

What this means:
Regulatory compliance is a strength, but sector-wide TVL declines (-14% crypto market cap last 30D) threaten fee revenue. USUAL needs to maintain its top-40 DeFi revenue rank ($27M/yr) as competitors like M0’s $300M+ stablecoin ecosystem gain traction.

3. Technical & Sentiment Signals (Neutral)

Overview:
RSI 43.78 shows neither oversold nor overbought conditions. The MACD histogram turned positive (+0.0000346) on Dec 10, suggesting slowing downward momentum. Social dominance spiked 37% during the Nov unlock news before retreating.

What this means:
Technical indicators hint at potential stabilization, but the 200-day EMA ($0.092) remains 75% above current prices. Fear dominates broader markets (CMC Fear & Greed Index: 29/100), limiting altcoin upside until Bitcoin dominance (<58.58%) breaks downward.

Conclusion

USUAL’s fate hinges on executing buybacks amid Nov’s supply flood and proving its "DeFi BlackRock" thesis as RWA demand rebounds. The 70% revenue commitment to tokenomics is unprecedented but untested at scale. Can locked staking offsets unlock selling before Q2 2025’s directional yield upgrades? Watch the Nov 17 unlock absorption rate – sustained volume above $8M/day suggests bullish accumulation.