Morpho (MORPHO) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Strategic Partner Unlocks (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
- Cohort 2 partners (16.8% of supply) began unlocking $MORPHO tokens in October 2025 via 6-month linear vesting.
- Founders’ tokens (15.2% of supply) remain locked until May 2028 but could influence long-term governance.

Historical precedent: Similar vesting events at projects like $DYDX saw 20-30% price corrections (DeFi Llama).

What this means:
Near-term selling pressure could intensify as early investors monetize positions. However, the Morpho DAO’s control over 35.4% of tokens provides a counterbalance if used strategically for buybacks or incentives.

2. Institutional Adoption via ETPs (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
- 21Shares launched MORPH ETP on SIX Swiss Exchange/Euronext (Dec 2025), enabling tax-advantaged exposure for EU institutions.
- Coinbase integrated Morpho for BTC-backed loans, processing $520M+ by November 2025 (Morpho Docs).

What this means:
ETPs reduce retail sell pressure by locking tokens in custodial accounts. Coinbase’s U.S. foothold could drive 5-10x user growth if crypto lending regulations clarify in 2026.

3. DeFi Lending Competition (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
- Aave V4’s Q1 2026 launch targets Morpho’s core market with improved capital efficiency.
- Morpho’s $9B TVL (Dec 2025) still leads in isolated markets, but RWA-focused protocols like Centrifuge are gaining traction.

What this means:
Morpho’s first-mover advantage in permissionless credit markets provides network effects, but must innovate to retain developers. Success hinges on maintaining >15% APY gaps vs rivals (CoinJournal).

Conclusion

Morpho’s price trajectory will likely hinge on whether institutional inflows through ETPs/Coinbase can offset vesting-related sell pressure. The $1.30-$1.50 zone (78.6% Fib level) remains critical support – a sustained break below could signal deeper correction.

Key question to watch: Will Q1 2026 ETP flows exceed $50M/month, signaling durable institutional demand?