Morpho (MORPHO) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Vesting Cliff Risks (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
27.5% of MORPHO supply (275M tokens) allocated to strategic partners faces vesting unlocks through 2025-2028. Cohort 2 (16.8% supply) fully vests by October 2025, potentially releasing $103M tokens at current prices into circulation.

What this means:
Near-term dilution risk could overwhelm buy pressure – MORPHO’s circulating supply has already increased 234% since November 2024 transferability. Historical data shows similar vesting events at Aave and Compound correlated with 20-40% price declines.

2. Institutional Gateway Expansion (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
21Shares launched the MORPH ETP on Euronext/SIX exchanges (Dec 2025), joining Coinbase’s $1B+ crypto loan program powered by Morpho. Grayscale added MORPHO to its Top 20 research list in June 2025, citing 121% TVL growth.

What this means:
Regulated access channels reduce retail-driven volatility while attracting sticky institutional capital. ETPs typically correlate with 30-90 day price rallies – ENA surged 18% post-21Shares listing.

3. Lending Infrastructure Upgrades (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Morpho V2’s June 2025 launch introduced fixed-rate loans and RWA collateralization, with $4B+ in active loans. However, competition intensified as Aave V4 and Compound Grants target similar institutional clients.

What this means:
Product differentiation strengthens fee accrual potential (current $344M annualized revenue), but sector-wide TVL dropped 7% last month. Morpho must maintain >15% APY spreads vs rivals to justify premium valuation.

Conclusion

Morpho’s price trajectory hinges on whether institutional inflows via ETPs/V2 can offset vesting-related sell pressure. The 23.84% monthly drop shows bears dominate short-term, but RSI 30.55 hints at oversold conditions. Monitor October 2025 Cohort 2 unlock volume vs ETP inflow rates – can Morpho’s $209M daily volume absorb both?