MetaMask USD (mUSD) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Adoption vs. Liquidity Risks (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
mUSD’s circulating supply surged to $65M post-launch but fell to $24.3M by December 2025 after Linea’s liquidity incentives ended (The Block). Future supply hinges on MetaMask’s ability to reignite DeFi integrations, such as its November 2025 campaign offering 50% extra rewards points for mUSD swaps.

What this means:
Short-term price stability relies on MetaMask’s incentive cycles, while long-term demand depends on Linea’s growth as a DeFi hub. Thin liquidity could trigger minor depegs during sell-offs, as seen in October 2025 when supply dropped 75%.

2. Regulatory Scrutiny (Bearish Risk)

Overview:
The U.S. GENIUS Act mandates stablecoin issuers like Bridge (mUSD’s issuer) to hold cash/short-term Treasuries. While mUSD complies, ongoing Treasury Department reviews (Cointelegraph) could impose stricter reserve audits or geographic restrictions.

What this means:
Regulatory delays or enforcement actions against Bridge might temporarily undermine confidence, pressuring mUSD below $1. Conversely, clear rules could strengthen its position against unregulated rivals.

3. MetaMask Ecosystem Growth (Bullish Catalyst)

Overview:
MetaMask’s 30M+ users can directly spend mUSD via its Mastercard-linked Card at 150M+ merchants. November 2025’s Transaction Shield launch (security subscription) and rewards for Card spending (MetaMask) deepen utility.

What this means:
Increased real-world spending and in-wallet rewards create organic demand, reducing reliance on speculative trading. However, competition from PayPal’s PYUSD and Phantom’s CASH (which hit $100M supply in 2 months) limits upside.

Conclusion

mUSD’s stability hinges on balancing regulatory compliance, MetaMask’s user growth, and DeFi incentives. Watch Linea’s TVL and monthly Card transaction volume – a drop below $20M could signal weakening demand. Will MetaMask’s native integrations offset the dominance of USDT/USDC in cross-chain liquidity?