Latest Grass (GRASS) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Post-Unlock Supply Glut (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
On October 28, 2025, 181M GRASS tokens (72.4% of circulating supply) were unlocked, primarily allocated to early investors and contributors. Historically, similar unlocks triggered 10–30% price drops (CoinJournal).

What this means:
The sudden influx increased selling pressure, compounded by low liquidity (turnover ratio: 0.258). GRASS’s circulating supply surged 58% post-unlock, creating an imbalance between new tokens and demand.

Key watch:
Monitor exchange inflows via Nansen to gauge whether large holders are distributing.

2. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Momentum)

Overview:
GRASS broke below its 30-day SMA ($0.316) and key Fibonacci support at $0.302. The MACD histogram turned negative (-0.0046), signaling bearish momentum.

What this means:
Traders exited positions after the breakdown, targeting the next support at $0.282 (2024 low). The RSI at 40.8 suggests room for further downside before becoming oversold.

Key watch:
A close above $0.312 (2024 low) could stall declines; sustained trading below $0.28 risks a drop to $0.20.

3. Sector-Wide Risk Aversion (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
DePIN tokens underperformed as Bitcoin dominance climbed to 59.3% (up 0.35% in 24h). The Altcoin Season Index fell 9.7% weekly, reflecting capital rotation to BTC/ETH.

What this means:
Grass’s AI/data narrative lost traction amid broader risk-off sentiment. Competitors like Helium Mobile (+28% in 30d) absorbed residual DePIN demand.

Conclusion

GRASS faces a triple threat: post-unlock dilution, technical breakdowns, and sector-wide apathy. While its $10M funding round (Blockworks) validates long-term potential, near-term risks dominate. Key watch: Can GRASS hold $0.28 with BTC stable? A break below this level could trigger algorithmic sell orders.

Deep Dive

1. Whale Accumulation (Bullish Impact)

Overview: On-chain data shows two whales bought GRASS on Jan 14, 2026, coinciding with the price uptick. This aligns with historical patterns where whale activity often precedes short-term volatility.

What this means: Large buys can signal confidence in undervalued projects, especially for tokens like GRASS with low liquidity ($9.7M daily volume). However, low liquidity also means whales can disproportionately impact price swings.

What to look out for: Sustained buying above $0.33 (200-day EMA) or profit-taking below $0.31.

2. Technical Rebound (Neutral Impact)

Overview: GRASS found support at its 30-day SMA ($0.317), rebounding from oversold RSI levels (46.62 on 7-day). The MACD histogram remains negative (-0.00105), suggesting weak momentum.

What this means: The bounce lacks strong technical conviction. Resistance at $0.334 (7-day SMA) and $0.353 (Fibonacci 23.6%) could cap gains unless volume spikes.

3. DePIN Sector Sentiment (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Grass’s decentralized bandwidth-sharing model ties it to the DePIN/AI narrative, which saw renewed attention after Polkadot’s October 2025 infrastructure push.

What this means: While GRASS hasn’t announced major updates recently, sector tailwinds may attract speculative flows. However, its 24h volume fell 45% vs. the prior day, signaling cautious participation.

Conclusion

GRASS’s minor rebound reflects whale-driven speculation and technical support, but weak momentum and sector-wide caution limit upside. Key watch: Can GRASS hold $0.317 support if Bitcoin dominance (58.9%) continues rising?