Eclipse (ES) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Strategic Pivot to Apps (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
After cutting 65% of staff in August 2025, Eclipse shifted from infrastructure provider to building consumer apps on its SVM-based L2. The first app remains undefined, creating uncertainty despite claims of "serving end users".

What this means:
Successful apps could increase ES utility and transaction volume (bullish), but the departure from core infrastructure may deter developers. Historical precedent shows similar pivots (e.g., Fantom's 2024 shift) initially caused 40-60% price volatility.

2. Investor Token Unlocks (Bearish Risk)

Overview:
31% of ES supply (310M tokens) allocated to early investors remains locked until July 2026 per token docs. Current circulating supply is just 13.26% (132.6M).

What this means:
Concentrated unlocks could create sell pressure – similar unlocks at rival L2 Scroll saw 22% price drops. However, staggered releases over 3 years might mitigate volatility if demand grows proportionally.

3. Layer 2 Competition (Bullish Potential)

Overview:
Eclipse processes 9,000 TPS using Solana’s VM while settling on Ethereum – a unique value proposition. However, it trails Arbitrum ($2.4B TVL) and zkSync ($1.1B TVL) in adoption, with just $30M TVL as of December 2025.

What this means:
Price could 2-3x if Eclipse captures 5% of Ethereum’s L2 transaction volume (currently 0.3%). The RSI(7) at 60.74 shows room for momentum if breakouts occur above $0.104 Fibonacci resistance.

Conclusion

Eclipse’s price trajectory hinges on executing its app strategy before 2026 unlocks, while maintaining technical edge against entrenched L2s. The 90-day -30% return suggests skepticism, but the 60-day +20% move shows speculative interest. Can Eclipse convert its SVM-Ethereum synthesis into measurable user growth before investor liquidity floods the market? Monitor weekly active addresses and TVL trends through Q1 2026.