Bittensor (TAO) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Post-Halving Supply Dynamics (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Bittensor completed its first halving on 14 December 2025, reducing block rewards from 1 to 0.5 TAO. Daily issuance dropped from 7,200 to 3,600 TAO. This follows a Bitcoin-like model with a hard cap of 21 million tokens. Analysts like Sami Kassab of Unsupervised Capital note such events historically reduce sell-side pressure, acting as a potential catalyst (Yahoo Finance).

What this means: The halving mechanically tightens new supply. If network demand from validators, stakers, and users remains steady or grows, the reduced inflation could provide a fundamental tailwind for TAO's price over the medium to long term, similar to narratives used in other scarce digital assets.

2. Subnet Expansion & Utility Adoption (Mixed Impact)

Overview: The network now hosts over 128 specialized subnets, forming a decentralized AI "supply chain" for tasks from pre-training to serving models. Institutional validators and public companies like xTAO are accumulating and staking TAO to support this infrastructure (The Defiant).

What this means: Growth in high-quality, revenue-generating subnets directly increases demand for TAO for staking and fees, a bullish driver. However, the ecosystem is still maturing; if subnet utility fails to attract sustained usage, the bullish thesis weakens, leaving price reliant on speculation.

3. AI Crypto Market Sentiment (Bearish Near-Term)

Overview: The AI crypto sector has lost over 30% of its market cap recently. TAO's short-term price is highly correlated with sector-wide sentiment and broader altcoin rotations. Current derivatives data shows a bearish bias with leveraged shorts dominating (AMBCrypto).

What this means: In the near term, TAO is vulnerable to continued outflows from risk assets and negative sentiment, potentially driving it toward lower support near $144. A sustained recovery likely requires a broader market turnaround and renewed conviction in AI narratives.

Conclusion

TAO's path hinges on its deflationary supply schedule clashing with a risk-off market. The halving provides a solid long-term foundation, but price discovery in 2026 will be dictated by whether subnet utility can ignite demand faster than macro headwinds erode sentiment.

Will subnet revenue growth outpace the broader crypto downturn?