Axelar (AXL) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Cross-Chain Adoption vs. Security Risks (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Axelar’s integrations (XRP Ledger EVM, Hedera, BNB Chain) position it as a critical bridge for DeFi’s $1.3T cross-chain economy. However, systemic risks persist: 40% of crypto hacks target bridges, with $1.5B stolen in H1 2025 alone. Axelar’s Proof-of-Stake validators and ZK-proof upgrades aim to mitigate these risks.

What this means: Increased adoption could drive AXL demand for gas fees and staking, but a major exploit (like Wormhole’s $325M 2022 breach) might trigger selloffs. Axelar’s 536% Y/Y cross-chain growth (CoinDesk) suggests upside if security holds.

2. Tokenomics & Staking Dynamics (Bullish)

Overview: Over 108M AXL (10% of supply) is staked, earning ~9% APR. The mXRP launch locked $30M in XRP via Axelar bridges, while AgentFlux’s AI tooling could attract institutional validators. Circulating supply remains high at 1.08B tokens.

What this means: Staking reduces sell pressure, and mXRP’s success (targeting 6-10% yields) may boost AXL’s fee revenue. However, fully diluted valuation of $140M could cap rallies if unlocks accelerate.

3. Macro Sentiment & Altcoin Rotation (Bearish)

Overview: Bitcoin dominance (58.6%) and Fear & Greed Index (25/100) signal risk-off conditions. AXL’s 90-day correlation with BTC is 0.87, leaving it vulnerable to broader selloffs.

What this means: Axelar needs a sustained altcoin season (index at 21/100) to decouple. The 798% volume spike during July’s AXL rally (CMC Community) shows speculative potential if sentiment flips.

Conclusion

Axelar’s price hinges on balancing cross-chain utility gains against crypto’s risk-averse macro climate. Watch mXRP adoption rates and the 20-day EMA ($0.155) – a breakout could signal momentum, while a drop below $0.10 may reflect systemic risks.

Can Axelar’s AI integrations and XRP bridge demand offset the sector’s security stigma?