The cycle continues but is no longer dictated by Bitcoin's programmed supply cuts.
Bitcoin News
Bitcoin's four-year cycle remains intact, but forces behind it have shifted away from halving toward politics and liquidity, according to Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research. Speaking on The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast, Thielen argued that claims of the four-year cycle being broken miss the point entirely.
The cycle continues but is no longer dictated by Bitcoin's programmed supply cuts. Instead, it is increasingly shaped by U.S. election timelines, central bank policy, and capital flow into risk assets, representing a fundamental change in market dynamics.
Thielen pointed to historical market peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021, all occurring in the fourth quarter. Those peaks align more closely with presidential election cycles and broader political uncertainty than with the timing of Bitcoin halvings, which have shifted throughout the calendar over the years.
Political uncertainty about sitting presidents' parties losing seats drives market behavior more than supply mechanics. Thielen noted the high odds that Trump or Republicans could lose House seats, potentially preventing agenda implementation, which creates the type of uncertainty that impacts crypto markets.
The comments come as Bitcoin struggles to regain momentum following the Federal Reserve's latest rate cut. While rate cuts have historically supported risk assets, Thielen noted the current environment differs because institutional investors, now the dominant force in crypto markets, remain more cautious.
Policy signals from the Fed remain mixed, and liquidity conditions tighten, reducing upside pressure needed to sustain strong breakouts. Capital inflows into Bitcoin have slowed compared with last year, leading Thielen to expect consolidation rather than new parabolic rallies without a clear pickup in liquidity.
The shift has implications for how investors think about timing. Rather than anchoring expectations to halving events, Thielen said market participants should watch political catalysts such as U.S. elections, fiscal policy debates, and shifts in monetary conditions to understand cycle progression.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argued in October that the four-year crypto cycle is over, but not because of fading institutional interest or changes to Bitcoin's halving schedule. Hayes said traders relying on historical timing models to call the end of the current bull market will likely be wrong.
According to Hayes, Bitcoin cycles have always been driven by global liquidity, not arbitrary four-year timelines. Past bull markets ended when monetary conditions tightened, particularly when the U.S. dollar and Chinese yuan liquidity slowed, making the halving an overstated causal factor rather than a coincidental one.
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