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<p>Bitcoin costs around $74,030 on Monday morning, November 9, roughly €66,150 (<a href="https://www.coingecko.com/de/munze/bitcoin" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">CoinGecko</a>). That puts the price below the $75,451 average at which Strategy, Michael Saylor's listed company, bought its 849,327 Bitcoin. The facts are these: the largest corporate holding in the world is sitting on a paper loss of a little more than $1.2 billion, and in the latest reported week Strategy spent more money buying back its own preferred shares than on new Bitcoin. Our assessment follows further down: the $75,451 mark is no floor, but it is the line at which sentiment will be decided over the coming days.</p>
<p>Where the price could head over a horizon of months, and which models sit behind that view, is covered in our <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/prediction/bitcoin-price-prediction/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin price prediction</a>. This piece stays with the next few weeks: what it means for the market when the loudest buyer goes underwater, which chart levels count now, and what investors in Germany should keep in mind about the holding period and offsetting losses.</p>
<h2 id="strategy-s-bitcoin-cost-basis-what-the-sec-filing-of-november-2-shows">Strategy's Bitcoin cost basis: what the SEC filing of November 2 shows</h2>
<p>Strategy usually reports its purchases on Mondays in a mandatory filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, a so-called Form 8-K. The most recent of these <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526442707/mstr-20261102.htm" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">filings, dated November 2</a>, lists a purchase of 811 Bitcoin for $65.5 million in the week from October 26 to November 1, an average of $80,846 per coin including fees. Total holdings then stood at 849,327 BTC, bought for a combined $64.08 billion. That gives the average price of $75,451.</p>
<p>The cost basis is the weighted average of every purchase price since the first acquisition in August 2020. Each purchase above that figure pulls it higher, each one below pulls it lower. On October 12, Strategy had reported 848,250 BTC at an average of $75,444. In three weeks, then, 1,077 coins were added and the average rose by just seven dollars. The figure shows how small the latest purchases have become relative to the holdings: 811 Bitcoin amount to just under 0.1 percent of the stack.</p>
<p>On Sunday, November 8, Michael Saylor once again posted his chart of the purchase history on X with the line “Connecting the dots”. In the past, such posts mostly came before a new purchase announcement on Monday. By Monday morning German time, however, no new 8-K had appeared at the SEC; the list of filings ended with forms dated November 6. For a profile of the founder and his strategy, see our portrait of <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/michael-saylor-strategy-bitcoin-holdings/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Michael Saylor and Strategy</a>.</p>
<h2 id="bitcoin-below-75-451-a-book-loss-of-around-1-2-billion-for-strategy">Bitcoin below $75,451: a book loss of around $1.2 billion for Strategy</h2>
<p>At $74,030, Strategy's 849,327 Bitcoin are worth about $62.9 billion. Against acquisition costs of $64.08 billion, that is a book loss of roughly $1.2 billion, or 1.9 percent. The gap to the cost basis is about $1,420 per coin. Measured against the all-time high of $126,080 from October 2025, Bitcoin is a good 41 percent lower.</p>
<p>According to the daily candles on the Binance exchange, the last daily close below $75,451 came on August 20, 2026, at $73,025. A day later Bitcoin closed at $78,338, and the breakout above the zone held until the end of October. The comparison has a limit: Strategy's average price was slightly lower in August than it is today, because the company has since bought at higher prices. The mark itself has been reached for the first time; the price zone has not.</p>
<p>For the market, the book loss is at first just a number on the balance sheet. Strategy does not have to sell any Bitcoin simply because the price falls below its cost basis; no mechanism triggers that automatically. The mark matters for a different reason: many traders watch it, and the gap between price and cost basis determines how easily Strategy can raise fresh money for further purchases.</p>
<figure><img src="https://cryptoticker-strapi-media.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/bitcoin_prognose_strategy_einstandspreis_2_5b2a7bbcde.webp" alt="Steel calliper measuring a thick round metal disc on a dark workbench, metal shavings beside it in raking light" width="1920" height="1080">
 <figcaption>
  On Monday morning, about $1,420 per Bitcoin separates the price from Strategy's cost basis.
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<h2 id="since-november-7-the-75-700-cost-basis-of-recent-bitcoin-buyers-has-given-way">Since November 7: the $75,700 cost basis of recent Bitcoin buyers has given way</h2>
<p>On Saturday, our <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/bitcoin-price-prediction-short-term-holder-cost-basis-november-7-2026/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">analysis of the cost basis of recent buyers</a> described how Bitcoin, at around $75,900, was trading almost exactly at the average price paid by investors who had bought in the previous 155 days. Glassnode put that figure at about $75,700 at the time. The level did not hold: on Sunday the price fell to $73,510, and on Monday morning the daily low stood at $73,750.</p>
<p>Two things have changed since then. First, both cost-basis marks, that of short-term buyers and that of Strategy, now sit above the price. Anyone who has bought since June is, on average, sitting on a small loss. Second, the week to Sunday closed at $74,851. That is the fifth losing week in a row: since the weekly close of October 4 at $86,530, Bitcoin has lost about 13.5 percent. The $73,000 to $76,000 zone, which we described as support on Saturday, has held, however. Its lower end has not been breached so far.</p>
<h2 id="buying-bitcoin-or-buying-back-stock-strategy-spent-three-times-as-much-on-strc">Buying Bitcoin or buying back stock: Strategy spent three times as much on STRC</h2>
<p>The November 2 filing contains a second figure that says more about the situation than the purchase itself. In the same week, Strategy bought back 2,092,035 of its own STRC preferred shares for $208.2 million. STRC is a perpetual preferred share with a variable dividend that is meant to trade around a par value of $100. When it trades below that, Strategy buys back shares to support the price. Over the same period, $65.5 million went into Bitcoin, just under a third of that amount.</p>
<p>Both were funded by selling new common shares through a so-called at-the-market programme: Strategy sold 1,178,552 MSTR shares for net proceeds of $164.0 million. Of that, $65.5 million went into Bitcoin and $98.5 million into the cash reserve. The preferred shares STRF, STRK and STRD were not sold at all that week. The mechanism behind it is simple: Strategy buys Bitcoin with money it raises on the capital markets. The higher the stock is valued relative to the Bitcoin holdings, the cheaper this funding becomes. If Bitcoin falls below the cost basis, the route gets more expensive, because every new shareholder is buying a stake in holdings that are under water.</p>
<p>For the Bitcoin price, this means the buyer that regularly brought billions into the market in 2024 and 2025 is currently moving sums in the tens of millions. For comparison: on October 12, Strategy reported 250 Bitcoin for $21.5 million. Demand from this source has not vanished, but it is too small to halt a downtrend on its own.</p>
<h2 id="a-4-79-billion-usd-reserve-why-strategy-s-dividends-are-covered-for-now">A $4.79 billion USD reserve: why Strategy's dividends are covered for now</h2>
<p>The obvious worry when holdings are under water is whether Strategy has to sell to meet its obligations. The SEC filing answers that with numbers. Strategy maintains its own dollar reserve, which the company says is intended for dividends on the preferred shares and interest on its debt. On November 1 the reserve stood at $4.79 billion, plus $132.7 million in freely available cash. In the week to November 1, Strategy paid $43.4 million in preferred dividends out of the reserve.</p>
<p>Extrapolating that weekly sum, the reserve would last a little more than two years on paper. The calculation is rough, because dividends do not fall due in equal amounts every week and the STRC rate can change monthly. It does, however, show the order of magnitude: according to the reported figures, a forced sale of Bitcoin to pay dividends is not imminent. Anyone reading in crypto forums that Strategy will be “liquidated” once the price falls below its cost basis is confusing a book loss with a loan that faces a margin call.</p>
<figure><img src="https://cryptoticker-strapi-media.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/bitcoin_prognose_strategy_einstandspreis_3_43189dae3a.webp" alt="Yellow crane in a dark warehouse lifting a heavy wooden pallet on chains, dust in the beam of light" width="1920" height="1080">
 <figcaption>
  811 Bitcoin in one week: Strategy's purchases have become small relative to its holdings.
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<h2 id="bitcoin-chart-levels-the-50-week-line-the-200-day-line-and-the-weekly-low">Bitcoin chart levels: the 50-week line, the 200-day line and the weekly low</h2>
<p>Strategy's cost basis almost coincides with a second level. According to Binance data, the average of the last 50 weekly closes is around $75,535, only $84 above the cost basis. The 50-week line is a measure of the medium-term trend; many chart analysts take a weekly close below it as a sign that the uptrend in place since the summer has broken. Sunday's weekly close at $74,851 came in just below it.</p>
<p>On the downside, the next level is the 200-day line, the average of daily closes over the past 200 days. On Monday it runs at around $73,220, as our <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/bitcoin-price-200-day-moving-average-inflation-data/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin price report from Monday morning</a> already noted at $73,170. Below that comes Sunday's weekly low of $73,510, which sits just above the line. Together, the two values form the support being tested this week.</p>
<p>On the upside, the hurdles are clearly laid out. First the double mark of cost basis and 50-week line between $75,451 and $75,535, then the 100-day line at around $77,350 and finally the 50-day average at around $81,820. According to CoinGecko, the 24-hour high was $76,106 and the low $73,709. Bitcoin is therefore swinging right through the zone in question.</p>
<h2 id="bitcoin-price-prediction-for-the-coming-weeks-recovery-or-a-test-of-69-335">Bitcoin price prediction for the coming weeks: recovery or a test of $69,335</h2>
<h3 id="scenario-1-a-daily-close-above-75-535">Scenario 1: a daily close above $75,535</h3>
<p>If Bitcoin closes a day and then a week back above the double mark of $75,451 and $75,535, the weekend break would have been a false signal. The next target would be the 100-day line at around $77,350. A new purchase by Strategy could act as a trigger, but it would not be decisive. What would matter more is that the price does not extend the fifth losing week into a sixth.</p>
<h3 id="scenario-2-a-break-of-the-200-day-line">Scenario 2: a break of the 200-day line</h3>
<p>If Bitcoin closes a day below the 200-day line at around $73,220 and Sunday's low of $73,510, room opens up to the downside. The next notable zone lies at the breakout of August 19: Bitcoin closed at $69,335 that day before jumping above $78,000 within two days. Between $73,000 and $69,300 there is little trading on a daily basis, because the price moved through that range quickly in August. Gaps of this kind are often closed again quickly.</p>
<h2 id="our-view-on-strategy-s-cost-basis-a-signal-level-not-a-floor">Our view on Strategy's cost basis: a signal level, not a floor</h2>
<p>In the newsroom's view, the evidence suggests that the $75,451 mark works as a gauge of sentiment rather than as support that can be relied on. The reasons: Strategy is currently buying Bitcoin worth tens of millions of dollars in an average week, while daily trading volume, according to CoinGecko, is around $26 billion. A buyer of that size can hardly defend the price at any one level. At the same time, in the latest reported week more money went into supporting its own preferred share than into Bitcoin. Against this view stands the $4.79 billion USD reserve, which makes forced sales unlikely for the foreseeable future, and the fact that the company already saw a quick recovery from the same price zone in August. Our conclusion: as long as the 200-day line holds, the break of the cost basis is a warning sign, not a trend reversal. If that line falls too, the second scenario gains considerably in weight. We do not derive a buy or sell recommendation from this.</p>
<h2 id="bitcoin-or-strategy-stock-the-crypto-holding-period-versus-germany-s-flat-rate-tax">Bitcoin or Strategy stock: the crypto holding period versus Germany's flat-rate tax</h2>
<p>For investors in Germany, it makes a big tax difference whether they hold Bitcoin directly or invest through Strategy stock. Gains on Bitcoin count as private disposal transactions. If you sell within twelve months of buying, the gain is taxable, provided that all private disposal gains in the year reach the €1,000 exemption threshold. Once the holding period has passed, the gain is tax-free. Our overview of the <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/crypto-holding-period-reform-status/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">crypto holding period</a> summarises where the political debate about this rule currently stands.</p>
<p>If you bought at higher prices since June and are now in the red, a sale within the holding period lets you offset the loss against gains from other private disposal transactions in the same year. That does not work with stock gains or interest. With Strategy stock, the opposite applies: price gains are always subject to the 25 percent flat-rate withholding tax plus the solidarity surcharge, there is no holding period, and stock losses can only be offset against stock gains. To document purchase dates and entry prices properly, it is worth looking at our comparison of <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/comparison/crypto-tax-software/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">crypto tax software</a>.</p>
<h2 id="bitcoin-at-74-000-only-above-75-535-does-the-picture-turn-back">Bitcoin at $74,000: only above $75,535 does the picture turn back</h2>
<ol>
 <li><strong>Mark the levels:</strong> Set price alerts at $75,535 (50-week line) and $73,220 (200-day line). Exchanges with alert functions and low fees are listed in our comparison of the <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/comparison/exchange-comparison/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">best crypto exchanges</a>.</li>
 <li><strong>Stagger entries instead of guessing:</strong> If you want to build a Bitcoin position during a stretch of five losing weeks in a row, spread your purchases over several dates. How that works automatically is shown in our overview of <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/comparison/buy-bitcoin-with-savings-plan/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin savings plans</a>.</li>
 <li><strong>Keep brokerage account and wallet apart:</strong> If you hold Strategy stock instead of Bitcoin, you need a securities account and are taxed differently. Providers that offer both under one roof are compared in our overview of the <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/comparison/best-crypto-broker/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">best crypto brokers</a>.</li>
</ol>
<p><em>(As of November 9, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)</em></p>

Bitcoin slips below Strategy's $75,451 cost basis as Saylor's 849,327 BTC go underwater

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