<p>The US labour market grew much faster than expected in October, and that is deepening fears in the crypto market of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve. <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/prediction/ethereum-price-prediction/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Ethereum</a> traded at around $2,236 on Friday afternoon, shortly after the data came out, according to CoinGecko. That is roughly €2,006 and 6.4 percent below the previous day's level. The figures brought no rebound.</p>
<p>What is documented: the jobs report, the higher odds of a rate hike in futures markets, Ether's price and the outflows from the US spot ETFs, each with a source further down. Our own assessment follows in a separate, labelled section.</p>
<h2 id="us-jobs-report-for-october-165-000-jobs-instead-of-the-expected-65-000">US Jobs Report for October: 165,000 Jobs Instead of the Expected 65,000</h2>
<p>The US economy added 165,000 non-farm jobs in October. According to <a href="https://en.bloomingbit.io/feed/news/123826" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bloomingbit</a>, the market had expected a gain of only 65,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent from 4.2 percent in September, also below the 4.2 percent forecast. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4 percent on the month, against expectations of 0.3 percent. The September figure was revised up from 29,000 to 60,000 new jobs.</p>
<p>The jobs report, known in the trade as Nonfarm Payrolls, is one of the most important economic releases in the world. It usually comes out on the first Friday of the month at 8:30 a.m. New York time and shows how many jobs the US economy has created outside agriculture. For the central bank it is a gauge of how hot the economy is running. A strong labour market with sharply rising wages can push up inflation, because households spend more.</p>
<p>This time the report carried double weight in the crypto market. Bitcoin and Ether had already dropped sharply overnight after chip and technology stocks slumped on Wall Street. Traders had therefore hoped for weak payroll data that would ease the pressure on the Fed. The numbers delivered the opposite.</p>
<h2 id="fed-rate-hike-in-december-futures-price-in-around-80-percent">Fed Rate Hike in December: Futures Price In Around 80 Percent</h2>
<p>After the release, the probability of a 0.25 percentage point rate hike in December rose to about 80 percent in futures markets. That is according to <a href="https://www.techflowpost.com/en-US/newsletter/143413" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">TechFlow</a>, citing the financial data service Jin10. Before the report, traders had priced in around 75 percent. "Priced in" here means the probability implied by the prices of futures contracts on the Fed's policy rate.</p>
<p>The background: in September the Fed raised its policy rate by a quarter point to a range of 3.75 to 4.00 percent. At its meeting on October 28 it left rates unchanged. According to the <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Fed's statement</a>, the vote was 10 to 2, and the two dissenters, Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack, would have preferred an immediate quarter-point hike. The same statement says the economy is expanding at a solid pace. The next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee is set for December 8 and 9.</p>
<p>For Ether, that date matters more than any chart level. A rate hike would make dollar funding more expensive and raise the yield on safe government bonds. Risk assets such as cryptocurrencies then have to offer more to attract capital.</p>
<figure><img src="https://cryptoticker-strapi-media.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/ethereum_arbeitsmarktbericht_zinserhoehung_2_d86fe6afda.webp" alt="Empty boardroom with a long dark wooden table, twelve leather chairs and a cone of light on the centre of the table" width="1920" height="1080">
 <figcaption>
  On December 8 and 9 the Fed's Open Market Committee meets for the last time this year.
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<h2 id="how-rates-work-on-ether-and-bitcoin-when-money-gets-expensive">How Rates Work on Ether and Bitcoin When Money Gets Expensive</h2>
<p>Ether itself pays no interest unless it is staked. When the policy rate rises, the gap widens to an investment that yields just under 4 percent with no price risk. Large investors calculate exactly that spread. Funds that run mixed portfolios of technology stocks and cryptocurrencies often sell both at once when rates rise, because both depend on expectations of future growth.</p>
<p>A second channel is the dollar. Higher US rates make the dollar more attractive to investors. A strong dollar usually weighs on the prices of commodities, gold and cryptocurrencies quoted in dollars. For investors in Germany the exchange rate adds another layer: if you count in euros, the loss on Ether looks somewhat smaller when the dollar is gaining against the euro at the same time.</p>
<p><a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/prediction/bitcoin-price-prediction/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin</a> was also under pressure. According to CoinGecko, BTC traded at around $75,800 in the afternoon, 5.0 percent below the previous day. Over the same period, Ether lost a good percentage point more than Bitcoin.</p>
<h2 id="ethereum-price-at-2-236-lowest-level-since-august">Ethereum Price at $2,236: Lowest Level Since August</h2>
<p>According to CoinGecko data, the 24-hour high was $2,388 and the low $2,209. On Wednesday, after the US election, Ether had still closed above $2,400. Those gains have now been wiped out entirely. Over 30 days Ether is down a good 13 percent, over one year around 33 percent. The price is 55 percent below its all-time high of $4,946, reached on August 24, 2025.</p>
<p>Market capitalisation, the value of all Ether in circulation at the current price, was last around $273 billion. Trading volume over the past 24 hours came to just under $18 billion. In CoinGecko's daily closing prices, Ether last traded lower than now in mid-August.</p>
<p>Since the end of October the price has moved in a narrow band between roughly $2,240 and $2,280, interrupted only by Wednesday's jump. The fall back to the starting point shows how little tailwind the market has at the moment. New buyers stayed for just one day after the election result.</p>
<h2 id="spot-ether-etfs-99-97-million-in-outflows-on-november-5">Spot Ether ETFs: $99.97 Million in Outflows on November 5</h2>
<p>US spot funds on Ether saw net outflows of $99.97 million on Thursday, according to SoSoValue data reported by <a href="https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/49868" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">TokenPost</a>. Four of the eleven funds recorded outflows. BlackRock's ETHA accounted for the largest share at $75.20 million. On Wednesday, the day after the election, $53.02 million had still flowed in. Since launch, the funds have taken in a net $12.02 billion.</p>
<p>A spot ETF buys real Ether for every new share and holds it in custody. When money flows out, the fund has to sell Ether or return it to dealers. Outflows therefore act directly on supply in the market. If you are in Germany and want exposure to ETH without holding coins yourself, you can use an exchange-traded product listed in Europe instead of the US funds; our overview of <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/crypto-etf-germany-buy/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">crypto ETFs and ETPs in Germany</a> shows which options exist.</p>
<figure><img src="https://cryptoticker-strapi-media.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/ethereum_arbeitsmarktbericht_zinserhoehung_3_0c2109c3e2.webp" alt="Glass industrial tank with liquid draining from an open brass valve, the fill level sinking" width="1920" height="1080">
 <figcaption>
  For days, more money has been leaving the US spot Ether ETFs than coming in.
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<h2 id="200-day-line-at-2-157-the-key-chart-levels-for-eth">200-Day Line at $2,157: The Key Chart Levels for ETH</h2>
<p>The 200-day line is the average of the closing prices over the past 200 days. Many traders read it as the border between an intact and a broken long-term trend. For Ether it currently sits at around $2,157, just under $80 or a good 3.5 percent below the price. The 100-day line runs at about $2,360, the 50-day line at around $2,503. Both are above the price. cryptoticker.io compiled this analysis itself on November 6, 2026, based on 365 daily closing prices from CoinGecko.</p>
<p>On the downside, the 200-day line is therefore the first level. Below it lies the August low: on August 11 Ether closed at around $1,871, the lowest daily close of the past 90 days. On the upside, the price first has to reclaim the 100-day line at $2,360. The 30-day high was about $2,573 on October 8.</p>
<h3 id="what-the-levels-tell-investors">What the Levels Tell Investors</h3>
<p>Chart levels are not laws. They show where many market participants have placed orders, which is why they are often tested. A close below the 200-day line would mainly prompt short-term traders to sell, while holding above it would calm the situation. If you invest for the long term, treat the levels as a guide for staggered purchases rather than as a signal to act.</p>
<h2 id="leverage-and-liquidation-rate-data-hit-leveraged-longs-first">Leverage and Liquidation: Rate Data Hit Leveraged Longs First</h2>
<p>A liquidation is the forced closure of a position funded with borrowed money once the posted collateral is no longer sufficient. Anyone betting on rising prices with ten times leverage, for example, loses the entire stake on a drop of around ten percent. Exchanges close such positions automatically and sell into the market in the process, which pushes the price down further. With strong economic data this often happens within minutes, because futures prices react abruptly.</p>
<p>Ahead of events such as the jobs report or a Fed meeting in particular, leverage raises the risk considerably. If you trade derivatives, check the distance to your liquidation price and reduce rather than increase leverage before December 9. Our <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/comparison/best-perp-dex/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">perp DEX comparison</a> shows which platforms for perpetual futures, meaning futures contracts with no expiry date, offer which fees and safety mechanisms.</p>
<h2 id="holding-period-and-loss-offsetting-ether-tax-rules-in-germany">Holding Period and Loss Offsetting: Ether Tax Rules in Germany</h2>
<p>For private investors in Germany, crypto falls under the holding period in Section 23 of the Income Tax Act. If you hold Ether for more than a year, you sell tax-free. If you sell earlier, the gain is taxed at your personal rate, provided that all private disposal gains in a year exceed the exemption limit of €1,000. A price slump can therefore also be a tax opportunity: realised losses on purchases from the past twelve months can be offset against gains from other private disposals in the same year.</p>
<p>The order matters. For identical coins, the tax office generally assumes that what was bought first is sold first. If you have bought Ether over several years, check before selling which units have already passed the holding period. A <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/comparison/crypto-tax-software/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">crypto tax tool</a> works this out automatically from your trading history and produces the report for your tax return.</p>
<h2 id="buying-through-a-mica-licensed-provider-custody-and-staking-in-a-falling-market">Buying Through a MiCA-Licensed Provider, Custody and Staking in a Falling Market</h2>
<p>If you want to use the decline to buy more, choose a provider licensed under the EU's MiCA regulation. MiCA is the single legal framework for crypto services in the EU; licensed providers must keep client funds segregated and are subject to supervision, in Germany by BaFin. Which exchanges meet these requirements and what they charge is set out in our <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/comparison/exchange-comparison/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">comparison of the best crypto exchanges</a>. A savings plan, a fixed amount at a fixed interval, takes the question of the right entry day out of the decision.</p>
<p>On custody: coins on an exchange are convenient, while coins in your own wallet belong only to whoever holds the keys. For larger amounts held over the long term, a hardware wallet is the tool of choice. Staking, the locking up of Ether to secure the network in return for a reward, can make the wait in a weak market more bearable. The reward fluctuates and does not offset price risk. For tax purposes, the German tax authorities take the view that the one-year holding period also applies to staked Ether; the rewards themselves are taxable as other income when received.</p>
<h2 id="our-view-on-the-ether-price">Our View on the Ether Price</h2>
<p>Our view: the jobs report takes away the market's hope that the Fed will stand pat in December. In favour of this reading: the probability of a rate hike has risen to about 80 percent according to TechFlow, two committee members already voted for a hike in October, and the Ether ETFs are losing money again. As long as these three points hold, Ether lacks a buyer to carry the price above the 100-day line at $2,360. Against it: much of this is already priced in. The hike was three-quarters expected even before the report, and the 200-day line at $2,157 is only a few percent below the current level. This is expressly not a recommendation to buy or sell. Cryptocurrencies can fall to zero.</p>
<h2 id="ethereum-ahead-of-december-9-without-a-rate-turn-the-next-push-is-missing">Ethereum Ahead of December 9: Without a Rate Turn, the Next Push Is Missing</h2>
<ol>
 <li><strong>Decide how to buy:</strong> If you want to buy more, do it in stages and through an exchange with a MiCA licence. Fees and licences are listed in our <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/comparison/exchange-comparison/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">exchange comparison</a>.</li>
 <li><strong>Check your leverage:</strong> Before the Fed meeting on December 8 and 9, widen the distance to your liquidation price. Our <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/comparison/best-perp-dex/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">perp DEX overview</a> compares platforms and safety mechanisms.</li>
 <li><strong>Recalculate the holding period:</strong> Before any sale, establish which Ether are older than one year and which losses can be offset. A <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/comparison/crypto-tax-software/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">tax tool</a> does the calculation for you.</li>
</ol>
<p><em>(As of November 6, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)</em></p>

Ethereum Price After the Jobs Report: 165,000 New US Jobs Sharpen Fears of a Fed Hike

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