<p>NBC News, based on AP data, projects James Talarico as the winner of the Texas Senate race against Ken Paxton. At 11:33 CET the count stood at 54.9 to 43.2 percent with 94.3 percent counted. Texas had not elected a Democrat to the US Senate <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_senators_from_Texas" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988</a>, and Donald Trump won the state by 13.7 points two years ago. It is also the first US state to put public money into Bitcoin for a state reserve, so far through an ETF, so the result reaches well beyond the Senate majority.</p>
<p><strong>Texas Senate race: the key facts</strong></p>
<ul>
 <li><strong>Status (11:33 CET):</strong> Talarico 5,263,139 votes (54.9 percent), Paxton 4,140,129 (43.2 percent).</li>
 <li><strong>Governor:</strong> NBC News projects Gina Hinojosa as the winner, 52.8 to 45.7 percent with 94 percent counted.</li>
 <li><strong>2024:</strong> Trump won Texas 6,393,597 to 4,835,250, Ted Cruz won his Senate seat 53.1 to 44.6 percent.</li>
 <li><strong>Bitcoin reserve:</strong> $10 million set aside by lawmakers, about $5 million reportedly bought through BlackRock's IBIT, a Bitcoin ETF, in November 2025.</li>
 <li><strong>Prediction market:</strong> Talarico 100.0 percent, Paxton 0.0 percent on <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/texas-senate-election-winner" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Polymarket</a> (11:33 CET).</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="texas-election-results-how-the-count-ran">Texas election results: how the count ran</h2>
<p>Early in-person voting ran 54 to 44 for Talarico, and the Election Day ballots reported so far ran 50 to 48. Most of Texas closed its polls at 02:00 CET, and El Paso and Hudspeth counties, on Mountain Time, followed at 03:00 CET. Counties reported unevenly through the night, so the final margin can still move.</p>
<figure><img src="https://cryptoticker-strapi-media.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/texas_rest_en_1793788129_309b6e3bd7.webp" alt="Bar chart of Texas counties with the most estimated votes still out and their margin so far" width="1920" height="1080">
 <figcaption>
  Source: AP via NBC News, own estimate
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<h2 id="texas-2024-vs-2026-where-the-state-moved">Texas 2024 vs 2026: where the state moved</h2>
<p>The suburbs tell the story so far. Tarrant County, around Fort Worth, went from R+5.1 in the 2024 presidential race to D+19.2 in the Senate race. Collin County, north of Dallas, went from R+11.1 to D+12.1. Harris County, home to Houston, stood at D+5.5 two years ago and is now at D+33.8. These figures compare a partial count with a full presidential count, so the final swing can still change in either direction. The win is historic: Republicans had held every statewide office in Texas for decades.</p>
<table>
 <thead>
  <tr>
   <th>County</th>
   <th>Trump vs Harris 2024</th>
   <th>Paxton vs Talarico 2026</th>
   <th>Counted</th>
  </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
  <tr>
   <td>Harris</td>
   <td>D+5.5</td>
   <td>D+33.8</td>
   <td>82 %</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td>Dallas</td>
   <td>D+22.2</td>
   <td>D+45.6</td>
   <td>90 %</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td>Tarrant</td>
   <td>R+5.1</td>
   <td>D+19.2</td>
   <td>99 %</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td>Bexar</td>
   <td>D+9.7</td>
   <td>D+35.5</td>
   <td>95 %</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td>Travis</td>
   <td>D+39.3</td>
   <td>D+58.4</td>
   <td>95 %</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td>Collin</td>
   <td>R+11.1</td>
   <td>D+12.1</td>
   <td>99 %</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td>Denton</td>
   <td>R+13.2</td>
   <td>D+8.4</td>
   <td>95 %</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td>Fort Bend</td>
   <td>D+1.6</td>
   <td>D+28.6</td>
   <td>95 %</td>
  </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>
<figure><img src="https://cryptoticker-strapi-media.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/texas_swing_en_1793788129_bd62a1943f.webp" alt="Dumbbell chart of the largest Texas counties comparing the margin in the 2024 presidential race with the 2026 Senate race" width="1920" height="1080">
 <figcaption>
  Source: AP via NBC News, 2024 election data
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<h2 id="texas-bitcoin-reserve-what-the-result-means-for-crypto">Texas Bitcoin reserve: what the result means for crypto</h2>
<p>Governor Greg Abbott <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/359089/texas-governor-greg-abbott-signs-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-bill-into-law" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">signed the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve law</a> in 2025. It <a href="https://capitol.texas.gov/tlodocs/89R/analysis/html/SB00021F.htm" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">lets the state comptroller buy, hold and sell Bitcoin</a> for the reserve, and lawmakers set aside $10 million for it. In November 2025 the state <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/380466/texas-reportedly-kicks-off-state-bitcoin-reserve-5-million-ibit-purchase" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">reportedly bought about $5 million of BlackRock's IBIT</a> as a first step, and in 2026 the comptroller's office <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/texas-plans-shift-bitcoin-reserve-from-etf-to-direct-custody" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">began preparing the move to directly held coins</a>. The reserve runs through the state comptroller, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Texas_Comptroller_election,_2026" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">an office also on this ballot</a>, so that race and the legislature matter more for it than the Senate seat.</p>
<p>Crypto money was on Paxton's side before the runoff. Fellowship PAC, led by Tether's head of government affairs, <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/fellowship-pac-crypto-texas-senate-race" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">reported $1.75 million for him</a> in April, <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-pac-fellowship-ads-texas-senate-race" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">reportedly pulled those ads days later</a> and had reported about $500,000 by the May runoff. The advocacy group Stand With Crypto <a href="https://www.standwithcrypto.org/us/races/state/tx/senate" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">rates both Talarico and Paxton as strongly supporting crypto</a>, and lists Talarico's call for clear, fair crypto rules and his 2025 vote for the Texas Bitcoin reserve. With the CLARITY Act stuck at 49 of the 60 votes it needs, every new senator counts in the next attempt, which we follow in our <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/clarity-act-explained/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">CLARITY Act explainer</a>.</p>
<h2 id="why-texas-matters-for-the-senate-majority">Why Texas matters for the Senate majority</h2>
<p>Republicans went into the night with 53 seats, so Democrats need a net gain of four for the majority, and Texas is now one of those gains. All calls and the full Senate table are in our <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/midterm-election-results-2026-live/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">midterm results live ticker</a>. Two more state stories from tonight: <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/florida-governor-race-results-2026/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">why Florida's governor race got so close</a> and <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/ohio-election-results-2026-sherrod-brown-crypto/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">crypto's $50 million bet against Sherrod Brown in Ohio</a>.</p>
<h2 id="what-polymarket-says-about-texas">What Polymarket says about Texas</h2>
<p>Traders put Talarico at 100.0 percent at 11:33 CET, on a market with $21.8 million in volume. That shows what the market expects and is no forecast from us; prediction markets moved quickly tonight and can overreact to early counts. If you hold coins through a week like this, compare <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/comparison/best-regulated-exchange/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">regulated crypto exchanges</a> and <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/comparison/best-crypto-broker/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">crypto brokers</a> first. This article is not investment advice.</p>

Texas Senate Race Results: Talarico vs Paxton and What It Means for America's Bitcoin State

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