Bitcoin

<h2 id="header-0">Key Facts</h2>
<ul>
 <li>Bitwise raised its 2036 Bitcoin base case 22% to $1,599,766 on Oct. 28, a 34.3% annual gain from its Sept. 30 starting price of $83,557.</li>
 <li>Nearly three-quarters of the increase comes from Bitwise's larger store-of-value market, which it now projects will grow from $31.1 trillion to $109.8 trillion.</li>
 <li>Bitcoin trades about 4% below the model's starting price, and Glassnode places about 4 million BTC of long-term holder supply between $85K and $118K.</li>
</ul>
Bitwise raised its 2036 Bitcoin (<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/">BTC</a>) target to $1.6 million on Wednesday, 22% above last year's. Its starting price for Bitcoin fell about 22% from last year's model, and most of the increase rests on a faster-growing market for gold and Bitcoin.
The asset manager now expects that market to reach $109.8 trillion by 2036, its new <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://bitwiseinvestments.com/crypto-market-insights/2027-bitcoin-long-term-capital-market-assumptions">report</a> shows. It kept Bitcoin's assumed share at a quarter. By CoinMarketCap's calculation from the two reports, the bigger market accounts for nearly three-quarters of the higher target.
Nearer term, Bitcoin faces a heavy block of long-term holder supply just above its price, according to Glassnode.
“Bitcoin is better positioned today than at any point in its past,” Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/Matt_Hougan/status/2115465192649924624">wrote</a> on X.
<h2 id="header-1">What Did Bitwise Change? Higher Base and Bear Cases</h2>
Bitwise's base case now implies a 34.3% annual gain from its Sept. 30 price. Last year's forecast <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://bitwiseinvestments.com/crypto-market-insights/bitcoin-long-term-capital-market-assumptions-2025">projected</a> $1.3 million by 2035, from a starting price set in June 2025, when Bitcoin traded higher.
The bear case moved further and now sits at about $131,000, above today's price. Last year's bear case implied a small loss.<tweet-embed url="https://x.com/Bitwise/status/2115446376506999019"></tweet-embed>
<h2 id="header-2">Where Does the Raise Come From? A Bigger Store-of-Value Market</h2>
Bitwise sizes each market Bitcoin could serve in 2036 and assigns Bitcoin a share of it. It then divides the total by Bitcoin's capped supply to reach a price.
The store-of-value market makes up about four-fifths of the new target, and Bitwise now expects it to grow faster each year than it did in last year's report.
Bitwise also raised Bitcoin's assumed share of offshore wealth and halved its share of US corporate treasuries.
The <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/institutional-investor">institutional</a> case held steady. Bitwise still expects institutions to put a small slice of their <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/portfolio">portfolios</a> into Bitcoin, the same range it used last year.
<h2 id="header-3">Why Now? Rising Debt and a Shallower Drawdown</h2>
Bitwise ties the larger market to government debt. It expects governments to respond by debasing their <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/fiat">fiat</a> currencies, which it says will push investors toward hard assets.
US federal debt has reached $40.2 trillion, and interest payments are now among the biggest items in the federal budget, the report says. Central banks also bought a record $96 billion of gold in 2025 by value, it notes.
Bitwise also lowered its <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/volatility">volatility</a> assumption. It says the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/drawdown">drawdown</a> into June was shallower than in earlier cycles, a mark of a maturing asset.
JPMorgan Asset Management is more cautious. Its long-term assumptions, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/jpmorgan-bitcoin-beats-stocks-gold">released</a> last week, give Bitcoin about 10% a year and keep it out of the firm's main portfolio models.
<h2 id="header-4">What Would Confirm It? Bitcoin Holding Its June Low</h2>
Bitcoin traded at $80,395 at 12:30 p.m. ET, CoinMarketCap data show, slightly below Bitwise's starting price.
Bitwise's cycle reading rests on the June 30 low. If that low holds, the firm says, the fall from the October 2025 peak would be the shallowest cyclical retracement on record.
“BTC must hold $80K level to avoid a long liquidation cascade toward $73K,” CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/ki_young_ju/status/2115148999342866827">wrote</a> on X on Tuesday.
The ceiling sits at $85K, where Bitcoin has <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-stuck-85k-bulls-bears-80k">stalled</a> for much of the year. Long-term holders own a heavy block of coins bought above that level, Glassnode's latest weekly report <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://research.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-43-2026/">shows</a>.<tweet-embed url="https://x.com/glassnode/status/2115429503237599615"></tweet-embed>
At Bitwise's base-case pace, Bitcoin would pass $1 million in 2035.
“If price recovers toward $85K, many of these holders may sell to get their money back,” Glassnode analyst Frederik Theissen wrote on Wednesday.
Further Reading: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/mara-moves-six-months-bitcoin-output">MARA Moves 4,860 Bitcoin in October, Six Months of Output</a>

Bitcoin Price Target Rises to $1.6M in Bitwise's New 2036 Forecast

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