Four

Daily

Bitcoin

Kevin

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 <p style="margin: 0 0 10px; font-size: 13px; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: 1px; text-transform: uppercase; color: #f7931a;">Key Takeaways</p>
 <ul style="margin: 0; padding-left: 20px;">
  <li style="margin-bottom: 6px;">9,990 BTC hit Binance from underwater recent buyers</li>
  <li style="margin-bottom: 6px;">Volatility near its lowest levels since 2021</li>
  <li style="margin-bottom: 6px;">Options price a roughly $1,800 Fed-window move</li>
  <li>$76,000 support band is the next test</li>
 </ul>
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<p>BTC traded at $79,910 at 11:59 UTC on October 27, down 0.30% on the day, according to the <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSDT/?exchange=BINANCE" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Binance BTC/USDT daily chart</a>. The session ranged from $79,506 to $80,388, extending Bitcoin’s <a href="https://coindoo.com/bitcoin-price-tests-80k-with-the-fed-and-midterms-ahead/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">test of $80,000 ahead of the Fed</a>.</p>
<h2 id="recent-buyers-are-selling-at-july-level-losses">Recent buyers are selling at July-level losses</h2>
<p>Short-term holders, wallets that bought within roughly the last five months, have been sending coins to Binance while underwater. In a <a href="https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/6ae021ae836e523529741177-Ahead-of-Fed-Decision-Bitcoin-STH-Binance-Inflows-Reach-9990-BTC-at-799K-vs-1023" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">report on CryptoQuant</a>, analyst Amr Taha said his measure of those loss-making transfers reached −9,990 BTC on October 26. The minus sign marks coins moved at a loss; it does not mean coins left the exchange.</p>
<figure style="width: 100%" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><a href="https://coindoo.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/cryptoqaunt-report-bitcoin.webp" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"><img src="https://coindoo.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/cryptoqaunt-report-bitcoin.webp" alt="CryptoQuant line chart illustrating Bitcoin Short-Term Holder (STH) realized profit and loss pressure sent to Binance alongside BTC price movements from July through late October." width="1280" height="720"></a>
 <figcaption>
  CryptoQuant chart tracking Bitcoin Short-Term Holder (STH) realized profit and loss pressure to Binance.
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That nearly matches the −10,232 BTC recorded on July 13, when Bitcoin traded near $62,000. The cohort is now sending almost the same amount at a loss with the price $17,900 higher, the second-heaviest reading since June 30 in Taha’s data. Coins that reach an exchange are available to sell, though not all of them will be.</p>
<p>The flip came fast. On October 22, short-term holders booked $3.13 billion in net realized profit, Taha said, the most in more than 15 months. Four days later the flow had turned to losses. Coins sold at a loss were bought above today’s price, and Bitcoin spent most of October between $80,000 and $87,000.</p>
<h2 id="a-quiet-tape-with-a-fed-move-priced-in">A quiet tape, with a Fed move priced in</h2>
<p>Little of that stress shows in daily price swings. A separate <a href="https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/6adfc8ff836e5235297410f4-Bitcoins-30-Day-Realized-Volatility-Is-Lower-Than-on-97-of-Days-Since-2021" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">CryptoQuant report by The Daily Digits</a> put 30-day realized volatility, a measure of how much the price actually moved, at 24.23%. That is lower than on 97% of days since March 2021, as Bitcoin slid in small steps.</p>
<p>Options are charging more. Implied volatility, the move traders pay to insure against, stood at 36.69% for Deribit’s November 27 expiry. For the October 28–29 Fed window, the report priced a 2.27% move, about $1,819, with forward implied volatility of 43.4% for those two days against 34.8% afterward. That is a range in either direction, not a target.</p>
<p>Calm does not have to end in a surge. Between April 2022 and September 2026, implied volatility exceeded what the following 30 days delivered in 73.8% of 1,613 observations. Leverage shows no build-up either: the all-exchange estimated leverage ratio has held between about 0.22 and 0.26 for a month, last at 0.246.</p>
<h2 id="what-could-break-the-calm-this-week">What could break the calm this week</h2>
<p>The Fed announces its decision at 18:00 UTC on October 28, with the press conference at 18:30, per the <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-october.htm" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Fed’s calendar</a>. As of Monday, CME FedWatch priced a hold at around 90%, so the reaction is likely to hinge on what Chair Kevin Warsh says about December, where markets still lean toward another hike.</p>
<p>Two more events follow. About $11 billion in Bitcoin options expire on Friday, October 30, which can add volatility as traders close or roll positions near key strikes. The US midterm elections on November 3 then put crypto policy back in focus.</p>
<h2 id="below-the-50-day-with-76-000-next">Below the 50-day, with $76,000 next</h2>
<p>On the chart, Bitcoin sits about 8.5% below its swing high near $87,400 and under two hurdles: the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $80,370 and the 50-day SMA at $81,866. Tuesday’s session high of $80,388 briefly cleared the first before price slipped back.</p>
<figure style="width: 100%" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><a href="https://coindoo.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/btc-usdt-27-oct.jpg" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"><img src="https://coindoo.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/btc-usdt-27-oct.jpg" alt="TradingView daily technical chart for BTC/USDT on Binance as of October 27, showing price action around $79,910, Fibonacci retracement levels, moving averages, volume bars, and an RSI oscillator reading of 40.79." width="1280" height="1136"></a>
 <figcaption>
  Bitcoin remains below its 50-day average. Source: TradingView.
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The first solid support below is a tight band between the rising 100-day SMA at $75,798 and the 38.2% retracement at $76,038. Beneath it, levels spread out: the 200-day SMA at $73,064, the 50% retracement near $72,540 and the 61.8% retracement close to $69,050.</p>
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 <p style="margin: 0 0 4px; font-size: 18px; font-weight: bold;">Potential Moves (not a forecast)</p>
 <p style="margin: 0 0 16px; font-size: 14px; opacity: 0.8;">Bitcoin sits just under $80,000, between the 23.6% Fib overhead and the 100-day SMA below.</p>
 <p style="margin: 0 0 12px; padding-left: 12px; border-left: 3px solid #22c55e;"><strong style="color: #22c55e;">Upside:</strong> Daily closes back above $80,000, followed by the $80,500 pivot and the 50-day SMA at $81,866, could reopen the $84,000 range top, with the $87,367 swing high beyond it.</p>
 <p style="margin: 0 0 12px; padding-left: 12px; border-left: 3px solid #ef4444;"><strong style="color: #ef4444;">Rejection:</strong> If rallies stall between $80,368 and $81,866 and daily closes stay below $80,000, the $75,800–$76,000 band becomes the next test.</p>
 <p style="margin: 0; padding-top: 12px; border-top: 1px solid rgba(148,163,184,0.35);"><strong>Bigger picture:</strong> Holding that band keeps this a pullback within the summer advance. Losing it, and then the 200-day SMA near $73,064, would put the trend itself in question.</p>
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<p style="text-align: center;"><em>This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Technical levels and market indicators do not guarantee future price movement.</em></p>
<p>The post <a href="https://coindoo.com/bitcoin-price-stays-quiet-below-80k-as-losses-pile-up/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin Price Stays Quiet Below $80K as Losses Pile Up</a> appeared first on <a href="https://coindoo.com" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Coindoo</a>.</p>

Bitcoin Price Stays Quiet Below $80K as Losses Pile Up

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