Bitcoin

<h2 id="header-0">Key Facts</h2>
<ul>
 <li>Galaxy Research says Bitcoin's bear market ended in June, citing five straight weekly closes above its 50-week moving average after 44 weeks below it.</li>
 <li>Bitcoin dipped below $80,000 on Monday as traders cut risk before Wednesday's Fed decision, leaving it about 4% above Galaxy's $76,540 tripwire.</li>
 <li>Galaxy says a weekly close below $76,540 that is not regained within a month would suggest the recovery has failed.</li>
</ul>
Galaxy Research says Bitcoin's bear market ended in June. Bitcoin (<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/">BTC</a>) dipped below $80,000 on Monday, about 4% above the level Galaxy says would prove it wrong.
Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/why-now-bitcoin-buy-hold-2026">wrote</a> that Bitcoin's return above its 50-week moving <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/moving-average-ma">average</a> and fading supply from old holders and basis traders mark a bottom. Bitcoin slipped as traders cut risk before Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision. Galaxy says its view fails on a weekly close below $76,540 that is not regained within a month. Glassnode puts a nearer test at the average cost of ETF and treasury buyers.
“We believe the bottom is in. Selling pressure has diminished, the debasement case has strengthened, and the crowd has left,” Thorn wrote.
<h2 id="header-1">What Did Galaxy Say? The Bear Market Ended in June</h2>
Galaxy treats the 200-week moving average as the floor in Bitcoin's bear markets and the 50-week average as the ceiling. Bitcoin lost the 50-week line in November 2025 and spent 44 weeks below it before closing back above it in the week ended Sept. 20. Sunday's close was the sixth straight above the line, by CoinMarketCap's count.
Past reclaims that ended long spells below the line never closed more than 8.4% below the reclaim level over the following year, Galaxy found.
Galaxy reports its quarterly results on Tuesday. Its research disclosures note that the firm trades the assets it writes about.<tweet-embed url="https://x.com/intangiblecoins/status/2114730275242426648"></tweet-embed>
<h2 id="header-2">Why Did Bitcoin Slip? Traders Cut Risk Before the Fed</h2>
Investors appear to be cutting risk before the Fed's Wednesday decision, Jeff Mei, chief operating officer at BTSE, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/26/bitcoin-slips-under-usd80-000-as-traders-de-risk-ahead-of-fed-meeting">told</a> CoinDesk.
“While the Fed probably won’t change rates this week, we’re watching how strongly the chair hints at a December hike — that’s what matters for crypto,” Mei said.
Higher <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/interest-rates">rates</a> make borrowing costlier and tend to pull money out of riskier assets. US spot Bitcoin ETFs also lost $773.5 million on Thursday and Friday, Farside <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://farside.co.uk/bitcoin-etf-flow-all-data/">data</a> show.
<h2 id="header-3">What Backs the Call? Fewer Sellers Among Old Holders</h2>
Coins unmoved for five years or more are changing hands at half their 2024 pace this year, Galaxy found. Spot <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/bitcoin-etf">ETFs</a> and treasury companies absorbed most of what did move. ETF holdings have also grown since the June low, which Galaxy reads as directional buying rather than carry.
A basis trade pairs ETF shares with a <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/short">short</a> position in CME <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/futures">futures</a>, collecting the gap between the two prices.
That trade has shrunk. Leveraged funds' net short is down 57% from the week of the all-time high, according to CFTC data compiled by Galaxy. The carry now pays only slightly more than Treasury bills. Hedge funds were already <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-price-bottom-58K-institutional-perspective">trimming</a> those shorts earlier this year.
<h2 id="header-4">What Would Break It? A Weekly Close Below $76,540</h2>
A weekly close below Galaxy's line would have a month to recover before the firm calls the reclaim failed. ETF holdings falling through their July low would also change its view.
Recent traders offer support closer in. Their average cost <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-cost-basis-levels-price-direction">basis</a> has risen into the middle of the $70,000s, a CryptoQuant contributor <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/6adee1549f52490dd216ef65">wrote</a> on Monday. That level has often held as support in bull phases.<tweet-embed url="https://x.com/cryptoquant_com/status/2114647920830210346"></tweet-embed>
Bitcoin has closed above $80,000 every day since Sept. 18, CoinMarketCap data show.
“A daily close below $80K would put the average ETF and treasury holder at a loss and bring the True Market Mean near $77.6K into view,” Glassnode <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://research.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-42-2026/">wrote</a> on Oct. 21.
Further Reading: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-stuck-85k-bulls-bears-80k">Bitcoin Stuck Below $85K as Bulls and Bears Fight Over $80K</a>

Bitcoin Price Holds 4% Above Galaxy's Bear-Market Tripwire

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