Bitcoin

<h2 id="header-0">Key Facts&nbsp;</h2>
<ul>
 <li>Bitcoin rallies to range highs near $85,000 fail, and charts show BTC making lower highs at each breakout.&nbsp;</li>
 <li>Aggregate spot volumes are down 30% from their September high, suggesting bullish momentum is losing pace.&nbsp;</li>
 <li>A daily close above $85,000 on rising spot volume and either a narrowing Coinbase discount or positive Coinbase Premium would reinforce the uptrend and possibly lure bulls back into the market.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
The month-long tussle between bulls and bears continues, and Bitcoin (<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/">BTC</a>) keeps being yanked from one side to the other. On Wednesday, Oct. 21, bulls briefly seized control, prompting an abrupt rally within $200 of $85,000.&nbsp;
Less than 24 hours later, bears snatched control back, pressing the price as low as $80,900, and on Saturday, Oct. 24, Bitcoin fell to as low as $79,145 before recovering back above $80,500 at the time of publication.
This tussle highlights the liquidity war, with futures market heatmap data showing nearly $8 billion in short positions stacked above the price and $7.6 billion in long positions laddered beneath it.&nbsp;
<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/f8ef1ec1d1394508864f044343d4389c.png">
BTC/USD 1-month liquidity chart. Source: Hyblock&nbsp;
$84,000 to $86,000 is the most substantial liquidity cluster, especially $85,000, where a large block of short positions sits. A similar scenario of heavy longs exists at $80,000 to $79,000, marking a line in the sand with $3.6 billion in longs.
So, price is range-bound within a $5,000 band, with near-equal leveraged positioning in futures markets. It’s neither equilibrium nor consolidation; it’s more a stalemate being enforced by non-crypto-specific macroeconomic factors and their impact on crypto traders’ sentiment.&nbsp;&nbsp;
<h2 id="header-1">Bitcoin Spot Volumes Are Down, Momentum is Slowing</h2>
Market momentum and spot volumes are also cooling. The daily chart shows lower range highs (lower higher highs on daily candles) at breakouts while daily lows on sell-offs are flat, highlighting support at $80,000. Spot trading volumes have also fallen nearly 30% since the mid-September peak, while futures volume has flattened to $12 billion to $13 billion per day.&nbsp;
Futures markets still lean long, with the funding rate positive since Sept. 1 and aggregate open interest pinned between $25 billion and $26 billion, except for a brief pop to $27.1 billion on Oct. 21.&nbsp;&nbsp;
<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/fd1699ff89d14301aaaecc05275f0e12.png">
BTC/USD price, aggregate open interest, funding rate. Source: CryptoQuant, Ray Salmond
One positive is that CryptoQuant data shows long liquidations shrinking at each sell-off low. Oct. 8 saw $255 million in long liquidations, followed by $139 million on Oct. 15, $33 million during the Oct. 20-21 breakout and $93 million during the Oct. 22 rejection.

<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/85a8766a77374b76a11acac5746f125a.png">
BTC long liquidations shrink with every sell-off. Source: CryptoQuant, Ray Salmond
The reduced severity of the long liquidations is positive, as traders are also successfully defending the $80,000 level as support.
<h2 id="header-2">What To Watch in Crypto Markets:&nbsp;</h2>
<ul>
 <li>The market is losing momentum, and price breakouts are etching a trend of lower highs on the daily time frame. Aggregate spot volumes are down 30%, and low spot buy volume, plus spot BTC ETF selling, threaten to break Bitcoin’s uptrend. </li>
 <li>The Coinbase premium has been negative for 48 days, and leveraged long positions are beginning to look crowded. A surge in spot volume sustained through a rally (multiple daily candle closes on rising spot and futures volumes), and a push through the $85,000 cap would signal returning momentum. A narrowing of the Coinbase discount, or a positive turn in tandem with spot ETF inflows and rising spot volumes, would signal strength, especially if BTC held above $85,000.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>

Bitcoin Stuck Below $85K as Bulls and Bears Fight Over $80K

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