Bitcoin

<h2 id="header-0">Key Facts</h2>
<ul>
 <li>Spot gold fell below $4,000 an ounce on Friday for the first time since mid-July and was down 4% on the week, its worst week since June, Reuters reported.</li>
 <li>Bitcoin traded near $81,500, up about 0.3% over seven days, as Brent crude rose to about $116 and US selling prices rose at their fastest pace since August 2022.</li>
 <li>Glassnode says Bitcoin's gold correlation will show whether investors treat it as a hard asset only once the August squeeze leaves its 90-day window.</li>
</ul>
Gold slipped below $4,000 on Friday and was heading for its worst week since June, as oil's <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-price-rises-tech-stocks-brent-dollar110">climb</a> to a five-month high fed <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/inflation">inflation</a> fears, Reuters <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.marketscreener.com/news/gold-set-for-steep-weekly-loss-as-rising-oil-prices-bolster-fed-rate-hike-bets-ce785cdfda80f22c">reported</a>. Bitcoin (<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/">BTC</a>) is little changed on the week.
Bitcoin traded near $81,500, up about 0.3% over seven days, CoinMarketCap data show, while gold lost 4%. Glassnode treats Bitcoin's correlation with gold as its test of whether investors hold Bitcoin as a hard asset. On price, Material Indicators cofounder Keith Alan is watching for a test of $78,000 to $80,000 if Bitcoin fails to retake its 50-day average.
“Heightened inflation concerns suggest that major central banks of the world won't be able to ease monetary policies as quickly as they want to. All that's working against the gold and silver market bulls at present,” Jim Wyckoff, a market analyst at American Gold Exchange, told Reuters.
<h2 id="header-1">Why Did Gold Fall? Oil Lifted Inflation and Rate Fears</h2>
Brent crude rose on Friday after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia. Higher energy prices fed inflation concerns and kept US <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/interest-rates">rate</a> expectations high ahead of next week's Fed meeting, Reuters said.
Companies are passing the costs on. US selling prices rose at their fastest pace since August 2022, S&amp;P Global's flash <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/07d16568e63346999890940d47639cd9">survey</a> showed, with respondents citing oil, fuel and freight.
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, said the pace “indicates consumer price inflation is likely to rise further above the Fed’s target in the coming months.”
Hot price <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-fell-2-percent-hot-inflation-data">data</a> last week had already strengthened the case for tighter <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/monetary-policy">policy</a>, Reuters said. Traders now see an 83% chance of a December hike, according to CME FedWatch.
The sell-off in technology stocks also led to margin calls, Wyckoff said. Traders who buy stocks with borrowed money, or <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/leverage">leverage</a>, must add cash when prices fall. Some sold gold and silver to raise it.
<h2 id="header-2">How Has Bitcoin Traded? Little Changed on the Week</h2>
Bitcoin <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-falling-tracks-tesla-meta-stocks">fell</a> about 3% on Thursday as chip and AI stocks led a Nasdaq sell-off. It edged higher on Friday. The S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq touched five-week lows the same day, Reuters reported.
Bitcoin was testing the average cost of ETF buyers, near $81,000, Glassnode <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/glassnode/status/2113211463863296008">said</a> on Thursday.<tweet-embed url="https://x.com/glassnode/status/2113211463863296008"></tweet-embed>
<h2 id="header-3">What Does Glassnode Watch? Bitcoin's Record Gold Correlation</h2>
For most of this cycle, Bitcoin moved with the stock market, Glassnode and Fasanara Digital wrote in a <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://research.glassnode.com/fasanara-digital-glassnode-q4-2026-institutional-market-perspectives/">report</a> released Friday. Its correlation with gold averaged close to zero.
That changed in August. The gold reading peaked on Sept. 11 at its highest since the data begin in March 2018. It has stayed close to that level since, the report said.
A correlation measures how closely two prices move together, here across 90 days. That window still holds August's squeeze, when Bitcoin rose 25% in a week alongside gold.
By CoinMarketCap's count, the squeeze drops out of that window in November.
<h2 id="header-4">What Levels Matter Now? $81.8K Overhead, $77.5K Below</h2>
Bitcoin closed Thursday below its 50-day moving <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/moving-average-ma">average</a>, near $81,800, Alan <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/KAProductions/status/2113641085469675690">wrote</a> on X. He expects a retest of support if it fails to reclaim the line by Friday's close.<tweet-embed url="https://x.com/KAProductions/status/2113641085469675690"></tweet-embed>
Glassnode's report draws a lower line at $77,500, an average cost weighted toward coins that still move. Holding it keeps Bitcoin in its bull phase, the report said.
The Fed decides on rates Oct. 28, and its preferred inflation gauge follows on Oct. 29.
“If the gold correlation stays above its 2025 average once the squeeze drops out of the window, investors are treating Bitcoin as a hard asset,” Glassnode and Fasanara wrote.
Further Reading: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/crypto-traders-stock-perps-bitcoin-volume">Crypto Traders Pile Into Stock Perps as Bitcoin Volume Stalls</a>

Bitcoin Price Splits From Gold as Oil Feeds Inflation Fears

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