Rekt

Bitcoin

Arkham

Billion

<p>Bitcoin fell to $80,350 on Bitstamp on Thursday, its lowest level since Sept. 18. Crypto liquidations reached $1.09 billion in the 24 hours to 10 am UTC on Friday, per CoinGlass. Long positions made up $1.05 billion of that total.</p>
<p>Short-term holders also sent 55,600 BTC to exchanges at a loss on Thursday, according to CryptoQuant. That is more than on June 26, when Bitcoin traded below $60,000. Bitcoin recovered to about $82,500 on Friday.</p>
<h3 id="what-triggered-the-drop">What Triggered the Drop</h3>
<p>The sell-off followed on-chain data showing the US government moving 12,267 BTC, worth over $1 billion, on Wednesday. Hours earlier, government-linked wallets sent $770 million in BTC to a Coinbase Prime wallet. Arkham linked the larger transfer to coins recovered from the 2016 Bitfinex hack.</p>
<p>Traders read exchange transfers as possible sales. The government is estimated to hold 328,372 BTC, so any sign of selling gets attention. Cointelegraph reported no confirmed sale, and the recipient of the larger transfer was unidentified.</p>
<p>Other pressure came the same day. Reports of possible new US strikes on Iran pushed WTI crude to $93.20 and Brent to $105.88. The US 30-year yield hit 5.73%, a 24-year high.</p>
<p>Fed governor Christopher Waller said more rate hikes are likely. Futures put the odds of a quarter-point December hike above 70%. The Fed’s current range is 3.75% to 4%.</p>
<h3 id="funds-are-leaving-too">Funds Are Leaving Too</h3>
<p>US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $484.9 million on Wednesday, the largest daily outflow since June 25. Another $244.1 million left on Thursday. October outflows now total $407.4 million for Bitcoin funds and $578.9 million for Ether funds.</p>
<p>Combined, that is $986.3 million in a little over a week. Ether funds have lost money for eight straight sessions. Glassnode says a rebound in spot volume and ETF buying would be needed to confirm the recent breakout.</p>
<h3 id="how-bitcoin-got-here">How Bitcoin Got Here</h3>
<p>Bitcoin peaked near $126,000 in October 2025, then fell for months. It slid toward $60,000 in early February and rebounded. It dropped again in late June, and its multiyear low sits near $57,000.</p>
<p>The recovery started in early July. Bitcoin rose from $73,000 to $79,500 on Aug. 21, which produced $1.3 billion in short liquidations. That was the last day with a larger liquidation total than Thursday’s.</p>
<p>Bitcoin then closed the week of Sept. 21 at $84,467, its highest weekly close since January. The third quarter ended with a gain of about 44%. Spot ETFs took in roughly $2.4 billion that week, their strongest since October 2025.</p>
<p>That rally has now faded. Bitcoin returned to $81,000 on Oct. 8 for the first time since Sept. 21. It has given back most of its late-September gains.</p>
<h3 id="why-82500-matters">Why $82,500 Matters</h3>
<p>Analyst Rekt Capital calls $82,500 the deciding level for Bitcoin’s next market structure. It was the breakout point of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. Bitcoin needs to hold it as support to confirm a reversal.</p>
<p>He warns that a weekly close below $82,500 would turn the level into resistance. Bitcoin would then be back in its macro accumulation range. Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average sits near $78,200, the next gauge traders watch.</p>
<h3 id="the-case-for-a-bounce-and-the-case-for-caution">The Case for a Bounce and the Case for Caution</h3>
<p>CryptoQuant notes that heavy loss-driven selling by newer holders can coincide with short-term capitulation. That removes weaker hands and can set up a recovery. Bitcoin also traded 36% above its June price when the loss transfers hit a record, which suggests panic at a higher level.</p>
<p>The risks are real. Moving coins to an exchange is not the same as selling them, and CryptoQuant says many holders may not have sold. ETF outflows are still running, and rising yields and oil weigh on risk assets.</p>
<p>The next test is this weekend’s weekly close. A finish above $82,500 keeps the breakout alive. A finish below it puts the quarter’s gains back in question.</p>

Bitcoin Falls to $80,350 as Liquidations Top $1 Billion and Newer Holders Sell at a Loss

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