Bitcoin

<h2 id="header-0">Key Facts</h2>
<ul>
 <li>Bitcoin stalled below $85,000 on Oct. 7 as buyers failed to turn the level into support, and large-cap altcoins fell 3% to 5% on the day.</li>
 <li>The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.307% on Oct. 7, its highest level in 24 years, while the 30-year yield rose to 5.688%, ahead of a 10-year note auction and the release of the September FOMC minutes.</li>
 <li>Traders are pricing a 78% chance that the US Federal Reserve holds rates at its next meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, with the US midterm elections less than 30 days away.</li>
</ul>
Bitcoin’s (<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/">BTC</a>) climb toward new 2026 highs paused as bulls struggled to turn the $85,000 ceiling into support. Large-cap altcoins also fell 3% to 5% on Oct. 7 as the wider crypto market looks primed for a breather after a strong September.&nbsp;
<h2 id="header-1">Why Is Crypto Falling in Uptober?</h2>
Bond yields are the clear factor weighing on crypto momentum. On Oct. 7, the 10-year Treasury yield hit a 24-year high of 5.307%, and the 30-year rose to 5.688%. This added to investor fears ahead of Wednesday’s 10-year note auction and the release of September FOMC minutes. Investors are now pricing in a 78% chance that the Fed will hold rates steady at its next meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.&nbsp;&nbsp;
Beyond the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/CoinMarketCap/status/2106792720626757643?s=20">panic over the bond sell-off</a>, 10-year and 30-year yields at 24-year highs raise questions for some money managers about the logic of holding high-volatility, non-yield-providing assets.
A consolidation phase after September’s stellar performance may be warranted, but plenty of bullish catalysts remain on the horizon.&nbsp;
Despite the midweek sell-off, October, which is lovingly referred to as “Uptober” by crypto pundits, tends to fuel traders’ bullish expectations given that Bitcoin has delivered an average gain of 20% in October for the last 13 years.&nbsp;<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/553416792c7748d4a8c3ec5cc705625f.png">
BTC/USD, October monthly returns (%): Source: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.coinglass.com/today">Coinglass</a>
Combine this historical performance with the recent swell of SEC and CFTC pro-crypto rulemaking, this week’s SEC approval of 3x Leveraged Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded products, and the long-awaited fresh capital inflows the market needs to sustain longer-duration rallies, and you could be on the way.&nbsp;<tweet-embed url="https://x.com/WuBlockchain/status/2106198202785656915?s=20"></tweet-embed>
Federal Reserve monetary policy could also swing in the crypto market’s favor in October. Historically, the Fed has avoided changing interest rates shortly before elections, and the US mid-term elections are less than 30 days away. Add to this the soft (28,000 jobs) jobs report from September and — unless CPI comes in really hot — the odds of a Fed rate hike appear low.
<h2 id="header-2">October Crypto Market Outlook</h2>
Summarizing a simplified outlook for October, one might see:&nbsp;
<ul>
 <li>Bitcoin, large-cap altcoins and DeFi token strength continues as SEC/CFTC rulemaking and newly approved ETF/ETP product announcements boost investor sentiment.&nbsp;</li>
 <li>A Fed interest rate hold would align with market expectations and remove a risk event that generally restrains crypto capital flow and investors’ use of perpetual futures. Liquidity maps show $90,000 as the most immediate upside target, followed by open air to $100,000. Traders will want to turn that narrative into reality.&nbsp;</li>
 <li>Fears of a December rate hike after the November US midterm elections and Q3 equities earnings might lead to early risk-off move toward the end of October and November. Crypto strength could sustain if bond yields cool as a result of improving geopolitics or because of US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s efforts to support the long end of the curve.</li>
</ul><tweet-embed url="https://x.com/CoinbaseInsto/status/2107204502004903985?s=20"></tweet-embed>

Is 'Uptober' Over? Bitcoin Stalls Below $85K as Yields Hit 24-Year High

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