Record

bullish

Solana

DappRadar

U.S. spot Solana ETFs attracted approximately $188 million in net inflows in the week reported September 28, setting a weekly record. Bitwise’s BSOL took about $128 million, or 68% of the total, while all seven U.S. spot Solana ETF products recorded inflows, according to <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/28/solana-etfs-draw-record-usd188-million-in-a-week-as-bitwise-takes-two-thirds-of-inflows" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">CoinDesk</a>.
That broad demand backdrop arrives as SOL traded at $120.29 at 03:21 UTC on October 2. The immediate chart question is narrow but consequential: whether buyers can protect the clustered support near $118 and overcome resistance stretching from $122.65 to $124.95. A convincing move through that band would put the editor’s $125 scenario back into focus; failure would leave SOL within its recent technical range.
The daily trend evidence remains largely constructive, although momentum signals are not entirely aligned. That disagreement makes confirmation at the nearby levels more important than the ETF headline alone.
<h2 id="sol-s-daily-trend-remains-bullish-but-macd-signals-caution">SOL’s daily trend remains bullish, but MACD signals caution</h2>
SOL’s daily RSI (14) stood at 64.0 on October 2, a bullish reading that the published analysis described as strong while remaining below the conventional 70 overbought threshold. In practical terms, the measure indicates positive momentum without the source characterising the market as overextended on that measure. <a href="https://en.coinotag.com/cryptocurrencies/spot/SOL/technical-analysis" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Coinotag</a> also placed price above all eight moving averages it tracked and noted that the 50-day average was above the 200-day average, a bullish longer-term alignment.
The underlying moving-average structure is reinforced by a separate September 30 reading. It put the 12-day EMA at $116.30, the 26-day EMA at $110.25, the 50-day EMA at $102.51 and the 200-day EMA at $94.91, with SOL reported above each one. Those levels show that the $118 area is not simply a horizontal chart marker: it sits close to the reported 12-day EMA and is the first point at which the short-term trend structure faces a meaningful test. <a href="https://block2learn.com/2026/09/30/solana-technical-analysis-125-breakout-test/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Block2Learn</a> identified the same broader setup as price holding above the 12-, 26-, 50- and 200-day EMAs.
Momentum readings are less uniform. A separate October 2 daily assessment from <a href="https://dappradar.com/token/solana/price-prediction" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">DappRadar</a> put RSI (14) at 61.74 and classified it as neutral, while listing MACD (12,26) at 5.44 with a bearish, or sell, signal. That conflicts with the bullish moving-average picture and with the September 29 reading cited by Block2Learn, which said MACD was above its signal line.
Because the <a href="https://cryptodaily.co.uk/glossary/essential-guide-to-macd-key-insights-and-settings-for-effective-trading" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">MACD</a> assessments come from different publications and observation times, they should not be treated as a single, unified reading. The practical message is that trend positioning favours buyers, but momentum has not unambiguously confirmed a break above the nearby ceiling: a sustained advance through resistance would strengthen the bullish trend signals, while repeated rejection would lend more weight to the bearish MACD interpretation.
<h2 id="sol-support-at-118-and-the-122-65-124-95-breakout-barrier">SOL support at $118 and the $122.65-$124.95 breakout barrier</h2>
At the reported $120.29 spot price, SOL was trading only a little above its nearest support and below its first resistance. The levels form a compressed decision area, with roughly $118 functioning as the line buyers need to defend and the low-to-mid $120s acting as the zone that must be cleared before $125 can be assessed as more than an intraday test.
LevelRolePublished basis$118.01Nearest supportCoinotag’s nearest daily support; a close below it weakens the bullish setup.$118.08Nearby support23.6% Fibonacci retracement and nearby 12-day EMA support zone.$113.18Next supportSecond daily support in Coinotag’s table.$102.51Medium-term supportPublished 50-day EMA.$122.65Nearest resistanceCoinotag’s first daily resistance.$122.94-$124.95Key resistance zoneRepeated-test ceiling identified by Block2Learn.$127.38Next resistanceSecond daily resistance in Coinotag’s table.$141.52Higher resistanceThird daily resistance in Coinotag’s table.
The support case begins with the tight $118.01-$118.08 cluster. Coinotag said a daily close below $118.01 would weaken the bullish setup, while Block2Learn located a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and nearby EMA-12 support at $118.08. Holding that area would preserve the short-term structure and keep the first upside challenge at $122.65 in view. The next published downside level is $113.18, followed by the $102.51 50-day EMA. <a href="https://en.coinotag.com/cryptocurrencies/spot/SOL/technical-analysis" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Coinotag</a> and <a href="https://block2learn.com/2026/09/30/solana-technical-analysis-125-breakout-test/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Block2Learn</a> provide the cited level sets.
On the upside, $122.65 is the first obstacle, but the more demanding barrier runs from $122.94 to $124.95. The latter range was identified as a ceiling after repeated recent tests and would need to be converted into support for a confirmed breakout. The $125 figure in the headline sits immediately beyond that published zone; it is an editorial scenario target, not an independently sourced <a href="https://cryptodaily.co.uk/glossary/understanding-and-utilizing-resistance-levels-in-trading" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">resistance</a> level.
Therefore, an upward move needs more than a brief push to $125. SOL would first need to clear $122.65, move through the $122.94-$124.95 band and demonstrate that the area can hold on a pullback. If that occurs, the next supplied resistance is $127.38. Conversely, rejection within the band followed by a close under the $118 area would weaken the near-term bullish thesis and shift attention to $113.18.
<h2 id="can-record-etf-inflows-put-125-back-in-play-for-sol">Can record ETF inflows put $125 back in play for SOL?</h2>
Yes, $125 is conditionally back in play for this Solana price prediction, but the ETF flow record does not by itself resolve the chart’s immediate resistance problem. Approximately $188 million of weekly net inflows and participation across all seven U.S. spot Solana ETFs offer a stronger demand backdrop than a flow total driven by only one or two products. BSOL nevertheless accounted for about 68% of the weekly total, underlining its central contribution to the record week.
There is also a separate development catalyst in the background. Solana developers were testing the Alpenglow upgrade, intended to reduce payment finality from roughly 12.8 seconds to about 150 milliseconds, CoinDesk reported. That is a development item rather than a price trigger, but it adds to the stream of Solana-specific news arriving alongside the ETF inflows.
For the $125 scenario to gain technical credibility, SOL needs to defend $118.01-$118.08 and break through $122.65 before overcoming the $122.94-$124.95 ceiling. A hold above that resistance zone would align the price action with the bullish daily RSI and moving-average configuration. It would also reduce the significance of the current MACD disagreement, though not eliminate the need to watch momentum after a breakout.
The opposing outcome is equally well defined. A daily close below $118.01 would weaken the bullish setup identified by Coinotag and expose the next published support at $113.18. Persistent bearish MACD signals or another failure at the $122.94-$124.95 range would similarly argue that ETF demand has not yet translated into a completed technical breakout.
Record ETF inflows have improved the fundamental demand context around SOL, particularly because every listed U.S. spot product reportedly participated. But with spot at $120.29, price remains between its nearest support and resistance. The market has a clear route to test $125; it still needs to execute it.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Solana's Record ETF Inflows Put $125 Back in Play as SOL Defends $118

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