Bitcoin ETF

FOMC

Nansen

Greed

Bitcoin

Bitcoin's rally ran into a two-way Fed on Sept. 3, 2026, after Governor Christopher Waller framed the September rate decision as an inflation-dependent coin toss, briefly lifting BTC to nearly $81,400 intraday, its highest level since May 15, before the token settled back to $79,543 at press time.<h2 id="waller-turns-september-into-a-live-inflation-test">Waller turns September into a live inflation test</h2>Waller said the next inflation reading will be the decisive input for his vote at the Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting, according to his <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20260903a.htm" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Sept. 3 speech</a>. He said he would be inclined to hold the benchmark rate steady if inflation keeps cooling, but would consider a hike if the print comes in hot. For related coverage, see <a href="https://www.coinlive.me/strategy-52b-net-bitcoin-reserves-after-adjustments/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Strategy Holds $52B in Net Bitcoin Reserves After Adjustments</a>.That two-sided reaction function stripped out any pre-commitment and made the meeting purely data-dependent. Investors quickly repriced the September path, cutting the odds of a hike to roughly <a href="https://apnews.com/article/5506d6b43cc2e3d4144f622f8cc29e43" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">50-50</a>. For related coverage, see <a href="https://www.coinlive.me/cftc-bitcoin-futures-open-interest-cot-report/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">CFTC Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Data in Latest COT Report</a>.<figure style="margin:24px 0;padding:20px 24px;background:#1a170d;border-left:4px solid #ffd740;border-radius:6px;text-align:center;">September Fed Rate Hike Odds (CME FedWatch)50.4%Probability of a rate hike at the Sept. FOMC meeting, per CME FedWatch after Waller's Sept. 3 remarks. Source: AP News</figure>MarketWatch reported traders trimmed the chance of a September hike to about a <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-doubts-emerge-about-whether-fed-will-raise-interest-rates-this-month-1d23cc12" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">50:50 shot</a> after Waller spoke. The wording mattered because it shifted the market from expecting a move to waiting on a single data point.<h2 id="bitcoin-extends-the-rally-on-lower-hike-odds">Bitcoin extends the rally on lower hike odds</h2>The repricing gave risk assets room to run. Bitcoin's spike toward <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-sets-fresh-intraday-high-since-august-breakout-hood-mstr-coin-12102940" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">nearly $81,400</a> marked its highest intraday level since May 15, echoing the pattern seen during <a href="https://www.coinlive.me/bitcoin-rally-fed-dovish-signal-altcoins/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin's prior rally on a Fed dovish signal</a>.At press time BTC traded at $79,543, down about 1.7% over 24 hours as the intraday pop faded. The token's market cap sits near $1.6 trillion on 24-hour volume of roughly $33.5 billion.Crypto sentiment stayed risk-on despite the pullback, with the Fear &amp; Greed Index reading 73, or Greed. That backdrop has been reinforced by steady demand, including <a href="https://www.coinlive.me/us-spot-bitcoin-etf-inflows-exceed-700-million/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows topping $700 million</a>, while leveraged positioning has driven bursts like <a href="https://www.coinlive.me/58m-crypto-shorts-liquidated-one-hour-bitcoin-jumps/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">$58 million in shorts liquidated in an hour</a> on sharp moves higher.Nansen analyst Nicolai Sondergaard flagged the move as tentative rather than a confirmed turn.<blockquote style="border-left:4px solid #ffd740;margin:20px 0;padding:12px 20px;color:#e6edf3; margin:20px 0; padding:16px 18px; border-left:4px solid #ffd740; background:#1a170d; color:#f3f4f6; border-radius:10px; margin:20px 0; padding:16px 18px; border-left:4px solid #ffd740; background:#1a170d; color:#f3f4f6; border-radius:10px"> My base case is that Bitcoin may have formed an important local bottom, but the cycle turn remains unconfirmed. — Nicolai Sondergaard, Nansen</blockquote><h2 id="what-traders-watch-before-the-fomc-decision">What traders watch before the FOMC decision</h2>The next inflation release is the hard catalyst. Waller tied his vote directly to that print, so a cooler reading would validate the hold-steady case, while a hot number could swing pricing back toward a hike.The Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting is the next deadline on the calendar. Until then, the market is waiting on confirmation, not signaling a full regime shift, keeping Bitcoin sensitive to every data surprise between now and the vote.Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.<a href="https://www.coinlive.me/?p=95273" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Read original article on coinlive.me</a>

Bitcoin Rally as Waller Turns Fed Rate Call Into a Toss-Up

Table of Contents

Coinlive.me

Other articles published on Sep 5, 2026

Crypto Prices on September 5: BTC 1.37%↓, ZRO 9.48%↓

Aptos vs. Sui: Same Language, Different Architecture

How Do Injective’s Weekly INJ Burn Auctions Actually Work?

Inside MIP-12: How Did Monad Cut Its Block Time to 300ms?

Ripple's New Bets on Tokenized Fund Infrastructure: What ZILO and Licuido Actually Do

How Does Bonk’s Letsbonk.fun Work?

Join our free newsletter for daily crypto updates!