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The odds that the US Senate will pass the CLARITY Act before its August recess are dwindling. So too are the crypto industry’s hopes for a comprehensive federal regulatory framework.After <a href="https://www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/majority/chairman-scott-senate-banking-committee-advance-clarity-act-in-historic-bipartisan-vote" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">clearing</a> the Senate Banking Committee by a 15–9 vote in May, the bill’s progress stalled. Prediction market <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/prediction-markets/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">odds</a> of the bill becoming law this year now hover around 29%, down sharply from a peak of 82%.The Senate is unlikely to hold a floor vote before its summer recess. Negotiations over ethics rules for government officials remain tense, while supporters are struggling to secure the 60 votes needed to advance the bill.<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/83b168f1d7914792b4ca31a955c998ad.png">Polymarket puts the odds of the CLARITY Act passing this year at only 29%. Source: <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/prediction-markets/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">CoinMarketCap</a>The CLARITY Act would establish a lasting boundary between digital commodities and securities, set registration rules for exchanges, brokers, and token issuers, and give the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) exclusive authority over crypto spot trading on regulated platforms.It would also make the current crypto-friendly regime harder to undo.Federal agencies have already begun rolling out a friendlier rulebook for the industry. But without legislation, those gains remain vulnerable to reversal.“Statute is the way to future-proof something,” Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Paul Atkins <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/sec-ready-crypto-rules-clarity-160934707.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">told</a> CNBC.<h2 id="regulators-are-already-moving-without-congress">Regulators Are Already Moving Without Congress</h2>Even without legislation, the Trump administration has already started reshaping crypto policy.In March, the SEC and CFTC <a href="https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9198-26" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">issued</a> joint guidance on how securities and commodities laws apply to crypto assets.The SEC went further in July, outlining plans for clearer rules on crypto fundraising, custody, tokenized securities, and on-chain trading. SEC Chair Paul Atkins <a href="https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/speeches-statements/atkins-statement-2026-regulatory-agenda-070726" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">said</a> the agency is “ready, willing and able” to continue acting if the CLARITY Act fails.<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/516dd436ec5844c0905b6358f89c74ba.png">SEC Chair Paul Atkins has been among the Trump administration’s most outspoken advocates for the CLARITY Act. Source: <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/07/27/watch-cnbcas-full-interview-with-sec-chairman-paul-atkins.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">CNBC</a>This industry-friendly stance has given exchanges, issuers, and institutions breathing room. But without changes to federal law, a future administration could reverse course.“The longer the approval of the CLARITY Act is postponed, the greater the threat to crypto markets,” JPMorgan analysts <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/07/30/jpmorgan-says-fading-clarity-act-odds-weigh-on-crypto-outlook" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">wrote</a>. They warned that delays could steer tokenization growth toward traditional financial infrastructure rather than public blockchains.<blockquote>Read More: <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/clarity-act-crypto-us-bill-what-happens-if-passes" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">The CLARITY Act Is Close: What Happens if Crypto’s Biggest US Bill Passes?</a></blockquote><h2 id="bitcoin-can-rally-without-it-but-altcoins-have-more-to-lose">Bitcoin Can Rally Without It, but Altcoins Have More To Lose</h2>Markets still view the CLARITY Act as an important catalyst. On July 21, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-07-21-2026/card/coinbase-stock-jumps-after-clarity-act-clears-major-hurdle-IjfioqJYzfNAVg6L2H2H" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">reports</a> of progress on an ethics compromise helped lift Coinbase shares by 9.6%, Circle shares by 8.6%, and Bitcoin (<a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">BTC</a>) by about 2%.A failure to pass the bill could trigger the opposite reaction. But legislation is only one force shaping the crypto market. Interest rates, ETF flows, liquidity, and broader risk appetite are likely to matter more.Bitcoin also faces less regulatory uncertainty than most tokens because its status as a commodity is relatively well established. The CLARITY Act could strengthen a rally by accelerating institutional adoption, but its failure would not rule out another bull market.<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/4207281e5f9c44df8f3e86473b173e91.png">Bitcoin’s choppy performance in July is partly attributable to CLARITY Act uncertainty. Source: <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">CoinMarketCap</a>Altcoins, exchanges, and DeFi platforms have more at stake. The bill would give eligible tokens a path to commodity treatment and establish disclosure and registration rules for issuers and trading platforms.Without it, those markets would remain dependent on interpretations that future agency heads could upend.“The industry will not be in crisis without CLARITY in 2026, but it may remain on borrowed time,” Galaxy Research head Alex Thorn <a href="https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/clarity-act-update-final-push" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">wrote</a>.<h2 id="the-real-risk-comes-after-the-next-election">The Real Risk Comes After the Next Election</h2>Even without the CLARITY Act, continued institutional adoption, political support, and regulatory easing could sustain another market rally.<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/42f05012a4d74e8991b298c09b5c5dc9.png">Senator Cynthia Lummis warns that failing to pass the CLARITY Act now could set America’s crypto industry back for years. Source: <a href="https://x.com/SenLummis" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">X/Senator Cynthia Lummis&nbsp;</a>The framework, however, would remain vulnerable. Without clear statutory roles for the SEC and CFTC, a future administration could reverse guidance, tighten enforcement, and reopen questions the market treats as settled.The current legislative session is “likely the last real chance we will have for years to get this right,” Sen. Cynthia Lummis <a href="https://www.lummis.senate.gov/press-releases/lummis-releases-updated-clarity-act-text/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">said</a>.<blockquote>Read More: <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/genius-act-one-year-anniversary-stablecoins" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">The GENIUS Act Turns One, but the Stablecoin Gold Rush Is Just Beginning</a></blockquote>

What Happens to Crypto if the CLARITY Act Fails?

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