Elon Musk

Terra

JPMorgan

Bitcoin

There is one technical indicator that has called every major Bitcoin bottom in the asset's 15-year trading history. It has never been broken on a <a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/exchange-closures-signal-a-bitcoin-bottom-analyst-says-the-data-tells-a-different-story" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">weekly close. Not once.</a> Bitcoin is sitting on it right now.The 200-week moving average, the average of Bitcoin's closing price over the past 200 weeks, currently sits in the $54,000 to $64,000 range.Bitcoin is trading at approximately $62,000 today, July 31, 2026. That puts it directly on the line that has historically separated recoveries from crashes.<h2 id="what-the-200-week-moving-average-has-done-before">What the 200-week moving average has done before</h2>The first time Bitcoin touched the 200-week moving average was in 2015. The price had collapsed from $1,163 in November 2013 all the way down to <a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/forget-bitcoin-ethereum-this-underrated-token-is-beating-everyone-after-posting-50-weekly-gains" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">$152, an 87 percent</a> decline.The 200-week moving average held. Bitcoin recovered and went on to hit $19,783 in December 2017.<a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/elon-musk-is-putting-dogecoin-on-the-moon-in-49-days" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Related: Elon Musk is putting Dogecoin on the moon in 49 days, here is what history says happens next</a>The second test came in late 2018. Bitcoin had fallen from $19,783 to $3,122, an 84 percent crash. The 200-week moving average held again. Bitcoin went on to hit $69,000 in November 2021.The third test arrived in early 2023, following the 2022 <a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/economist-who-predicted-2008-crypto-crash-expects-a-much-bigger-selloff-in-bitcoin" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">collapse from $69,000 to</a> $15,476 that took the Terra Luna implosion and FTX bankruptcy to produce.The 200-week moving average held. Bitcoin went on to hit $126,000 in October 2025. Three touches. Three holds. Three recoveries to new all-time highs.<h3 id="trending-on-thestreet-roundtable">Trending on TheStreet Roundtable:</h3><ul><li><a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/cathie-wood-trims-ethereum-exposure-on-11th-anniversary" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Cathie Wood trims Ethereum exposure on 11th anniversary</a></li><li><a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/us-treasury-attacks-irans-hormuz-extortion-network" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">U.S. Treasury attacks Iran's Hormuz 'extortion' network</a></li><li><a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/jpmorgan-issues-blunt-warning-on-cryptos-future" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">JPMorgan issues blunt warning on crypto's future</a></li></ul><h2 id="the-question-nobody-can-answer">The question nobody can answer</h2>Bitcoin has now pulled back 51 percent from that $126,000 peak, driven by rising Treasury yields, sustained ETF outflows, Strategy's $8.32 billion u<a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/10-biggest-bitcoin-holders-in-the-world-right-now-from-satoshi-to-u-s-government" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">nrealized loss creating</a> market anxiety, and a hawkish Fed that has kept dollar strength elevated throughout 2026.The result is a price that has drifted back into contact with the 200-week moving average for the fourth time in Bitcoin's history.The 200-week moving average has never been broken on a weekly close. But past performance in financial markets does not guarantee future results, and analysts who predicted the 2022 bottom at the 200-week MA were right, <a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/ripples-xrp-could-hit-100-trillion-if-this-happens-says-analyst" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">while the dozens who</a> called it broken were wrong.What the indicator offers is not a guarantee. It offers the most data-backed context available for understanding where Bitcoin sits in its long-term cycle.Three times it marked the bottom. The fourth test is <a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/us-debt-just-hit-a-new-record-and-investors-are-fleeing-to-bitcoin-gold" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">happening right now</a>.<a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/ripples-xrp-could-hit-100-trillion-if-this-happens-says-analyst" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Related: Crypto analyst unveils one factor that could send XRP to $100 trillion</a>

Bitcoin has never broken this line in 15 years, it is on it right now

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