Bitcoin ETF

Bitcoin

Momentum

Spot

Bitcoin<a href="https://yellow.com/asset/btc" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">(BTC)</a> may be forming a <a href="https://yellow.com/news/standard-chartered-bitcoin-bottom-call" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">market cycle bottom</a>, Fidelity says, as over 40% of long-term supply, nearing 15 million coins, sits underwater.
<h2 id="key-points">Key Points:</h2>
<blockquote>
 <ul>
 <li>Fidelity flags a possible Bitcoin bottom as long-term holders near a record 15 million coins.</li>
 <li>Roughly 40% of that supply now sits at a loss, echoing past cycle floors.</li>
 <li>Spot Bitcoin ETF demand stays weak, which Glassnode warns could stall a near-term rebound.</li>
 </ul>
</blockquote>
<h2 id="fidelity-flags-cycle-bottom">Fidelity Flags Cycle Bottom</h2>
Fidelity research analyst Zack Wainwright<a href="https://ambcrypto.com/40-of-long-term-supply-under-loss-why-fidelity-foresees-bitcoin-cycle-bottom/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">noted</a> that holders who have kept their coins for more than six months are closing in on a record 15 million, the largest such stash yet.
Nearly 40% of that supply now trades below cost, a share that has repeatedly lined up with the market's bottoming phase.
On a 30-day average, the slice of supply sitting at a loss has climbed to 50% as the price slipped under $63,000 this week. In earlier cycles, the coin turned higher once that figure reached roughly 46% to 56%.
During the 2022 bear market, it peaked near 50% as prices bottomed close to $16,000, a pattern analysts caution may rhyme rather than repeat.
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<h2 id="glassnode-warns-on-etf-demand">Glassnode Warns On ETF Demand</h2>
Spot Bitcoin ETFs strung together three days of inflows since Tuesday, yet the month-over-month trend stays soft. Glassnode data show steady selling from the two biggest issuers, BlackRock and Fidelity, at a pace that rivals the retreat seen through 2025, with directional conviction across both funds still muted.
June alone <a href="https://www.techtimes.com/articles/319653/20260703/bitcoin-etf-outflow-streak-ends-27b-june-jobs-data-cools-rate-risk.htm" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">recorded</a> the worst monthly outflows since the products launched in early 2024.
Thirty-day withdrawals topped 2,000 coins a day through midsummer before easing to about 1,250 this week.
Thinner trading volumes point to fading speculative interest, which Glassnode says could push any durable recovery further out until buyers return in force.
<h2 id="bitcoin-price-tests-60k-floor">Bitcoin Price Tests $60K Floor</h2>
Bitcoin last traded near $62,800, down about 4% and close to erasing a brief bounce that followed a softer inflation print.
Options traders leaned defensive over the past day, stacking bearish bets at $62,500 and $56,000 while some bulls still eyed $68,000 and $79,000, a split that points to a range-bound July between roughly $55,000 and $70,000.
The wider slide has run since October, when Bitcoin peaked above $126,000. Its drop of more than 50% since then, milder than the 77% plunge into the 2022 low, has kept the market hunting for a floor.
Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer has <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/07/12/bitcoin-is-nearing-a-power-law-support-line-fidelity-has-tracked-since-2015" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">tracked</a> the price against a long-running support line <a href="https://yellow.com/news/bitcoin-whales-60k-spot-demand" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">near $58,000</a>, and traders now treat $60,000 as the level to defend before macro headwinds decide the next move.
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Bitcoin Price Prediction — Bulls Eye $79K, Bears Bet $56K, And July Sits In Between

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Other articles published on Jul 17, 2026

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