2024

2026

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC) “cycle peak buyers” could already be pointing the way to the next bear-market bottom.
Key points:
<ul>
 <li>Bitcoin hodlers who bought BTC one to two years ago are cooling selling pressure.</li>
 <li>The cohort’s realized losses have led to market bottoms once their uptrend reverses, Glassnode data shows.</li>
 <li>Speculators’ cost basis reinforces the next BTC price battleground at $69,000.</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="glassnode-bitcoin-realized-loss-reversal-worth-watching-closely">Glassnode: Bitcoin realized loss reversal “worth watching closely”</h2>
In an <a href="https://x.com/cryptovizart/status/2077637162338496533" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">X post</a> on Friday, Cryptovizart, the pseudonymous lead research analyst at onchain analytics platform Glassnode, showed a classic bottom signal potentially repeating.
The latest in a <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/markets/btc-price-bull-market-to-begin-in-september-five-things-to-know-in-bitcoin-this-week" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">series of such signals</a>, the latest puts buyers who bought BTC in the latter part of the bull market in focus.
“One of the metrics I watch most closely when trying to gauge a bear market’s end is, Realized Loss volume (in USD) by the 1-2 year holders,” Cryptovizart wrote.
Here, coins moving onchain at a loss last did so between July 2024 and July 2025. During that time, BTC/USD increased from around $62,800 to $107,000, placing the majority of investors underwater on their allocation.
“As frustration builds with sustained price underperformance, this cohort tends to progressively increase loss realization,” the post continues.
<blockquote>
 “Historically, bear markets have not found durable footing until this specific group exhausts its sell pressure.”
</blockquote><img alt="" height="1800" src="https://s3-images.ctmedia.io/media/content/hnugcrwuaabtuw.png" width="3200">
Bitcoin realized losses for 1-2 year hodlers (30-day moving average). Source: Cryptovizart/X
 An accompanying chart shows a spike in realized losses on a 30-day rolling basis, with the tally recently passing $75 million before beginning a reversal. For Cryptovizart, that feature is key.
“When the 30D-SMA of their realized loss cools and rolls over, it has often been among the clearest early signals that the heaviest distribution phase is behind the market,” they added.
<blockquote>
 “Worth watching closely.”
</blockquote>
<h2 id="focus-shifts-to-69-000-btc-price-showdown">Focus shifts to $69,000 BTC price showdown</h2>
Hodler realized losses are not the only onchain metric on the radar when it comes to timing the next macro BTC price floor.&nbsp;
Related: Bitcoin gets new $80K August target: Watch these BTC price levels next
As <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-bear-market-will-bottom-when-two-month-rsi-metric-hits-zero-trader-predicts" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Cointelegraph reported</a>, stochastic relative strength index (RSI) values on two-month time frames are creating classic market reversal conditions.
In the latest edition of its regular newsletter, <a href="https://research.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-28-2026/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">The Week Onchain</a>, Glassnode flagged Bitcoin speculators’ aggregate cost basis as bulls’ next resistance hurdle.
At around $69,000, the cost basis for short-term holders (STHs) also coincides with old all-time highs from the 2021 bull market.
“The first meeting with that level will likely draw a strong reaction, because the people most inclined to sell are the ones about to be made whole,” it read.
<blockquote>
 “A convincing reclaim would give the recovery room to run; a rejection keeps the range intact.”
</blockquote><img alt="" height="849" src="https://s3-images.ctmedia.io/media/content/screenshot-2026-07-16-105401.png" width="1526">
BTC/USD chart with cost-basis levels (screenshot). Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin $107K buyers providing ‘early signals’ of 2026 bear-market bottom: Glassnode

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