2026

Bitcoin

when

Rare

would

<ul>
 <li><strong>Bitcoin gained roughly 3.25% in 24 hours after a softer-than-expected US CPI print.</strong></li>
 <li><strong>CryptoQuant data shows short-term holder losses shrinking on each recent dip.</strong></li>
 <li><strong>Long-term holder NUPL has stayed negative for more than a month, an unusual pattern.</strong></li>
 <li><strong>The LTH/STH dominance ratio just hit a 30-month high.</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>Bitcoin gained roughly 3.25% in 24 hours after US inflation data came in softer than expected, but CryptoQuant on-chain data published the same day points to something the price chart alone doesn’t show: losses are migrating from recent buyers to long-term holders, a sequence that typically only shows up late in a market cycle, not mid-rally.</p>
<p><img src="https://ethnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/BTCUSDT_2026-07-14_18-58-39-scaled.png" alt="BTCUSDT chart from TradingView - shows price trend, RSI and volume" width="2560" height="1481"></p>
<p>The<strong><a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"> US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday</a></strong> that consumer prices fell 0.4% in June from May, pushing annual inflation down to 3.5% from 4.2% the prior month. Markets read the print as confirmation that price pressure is cooling faster than expected, and Bitcoin climbed back above $64,600 within hours, lifting the total crypto market capitalization to $2.19 trillion, up 2.05% on the day.</p>
<p>That’s the surface story. Underneath it, two CryptoQuant charts describe a market where pain is being redistributed rather than resolved – a distinction that matters for anyone trying to read whether this bounce reflects genuine demand or a temporary reprieve.</p>
<h2 id="strong-nupl-tracks-who-s-sitting-on-paper-losses-strong"><strong>NUPL Tracks Who’s Sitting on Paper Losses</strong></h2>
<p>Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) tracks the gap between what coins are worth today and what their holders originally paid, split by how long each coin has sat untouched on the network. A negative reading means that group of holders is sitting on paper losses as a whole. CryptoQuant separates this into two cohorts: short-term holders (coins moved within the last 155 days) and long-term holders (everything older).</p>
<h2 id="strong-short-term-holder-losses-are-shrinking-on-each-dip-strong"><strong>Short-Term Holder Losses Are Shrinking on Each Dip</strong></h2>
<p>According to adjusted NUPL data shared by CryptoQuant analyst @MorenoDV_, short-term holder losses have gotten progressively smaller on each recent dip, even as Bitcoin kept revisiting the same lower price range. That’s a meaningful detail: it means each new low is hurting this cohort less than the previous one, not more.</p>
<p>The mechanism behind it is straightforward. When a high-cost buyer sells at a loss, their coins change hands at a lower price, which pulls the entire cohort’s average cost basis down. Over several rounds of this, the gap between spot price and what short-term holders paid narrows, and the cohort becomes progressively less fragile even without the price itself recovering.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
 <p>Bitcoin Is Building a Bottom Through a Transfer of Pain</p>
 <p>“Eventual capitulation, or the gradual absorption of their high-cost supply by stronger hands, helps complete the redistribution necessary to build a more durable base.” – By <a href="https://x.com/MorenoDV_?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">@MorenoDV_</a><a href="https://t.co/WcNdShV6tP" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">pic.twitter.com/WcNdShV6tP</a></p>
 <p>— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href="https://x.com/cryptoquant_com/status/2076940349696512159?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">July 14, 2026</a></p>
</blockquote>
<h2 id="strong-long-term-holders-have-been-underwater-for-a-month-strong"><strong>Long-Term Holders Have Been Underwater for a Month</strong></h2>
<p>Long-term holder NUPL has stayed negative for more than a month, according to the same CryptoQuant data. That’s atypical. Long-term holder losses are rare and slow to build, since by definition this cohort has already held through at least one full 155-day cycle, and sustained losses in this group usually only appear during deep, prolonged drawdowns.</p>
<p>The nuance worth understanding: this isn’t legacy holders from years ago capitulating. It’s buyers who entered near recent cycle highs and simply aged past the 155-day mark, migrating from the short-term to the long-term cohort while still carrying their original losses. In effect, short-term pain that didn’t get resolved through selling has matured into long-term financial stress instead.</p>
<div>
 <table>
  <thead>
   <tr>
    <th>Indicator</th>
    <th>Current signal</th>
    <th>Historical norm</th>
   </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
   <tr>
    <td>Short-term holder NUPL</td>
    <td>Losses shrinking on each dip</td>
    <td>Typically volatile, tracks price closely</td>
   </tr>
   <tr>
    <td>Long-term holder NUPL</td>
    <td>Negative for over a month</td>
    <td>Rare outside deep drawdowns</td>
   </tr>
   <tr>
    <td>LTH/STH dominance ratio</td>
    <td>30-month high</td>
    <td>Rises when LTHs absorb supply faster than STHs distribute it</td>
   </tr>
  </tbody>
 </table>
</div>
<h2 id="strong-the-dominance-ratio-just-hit-a-30-month-high-strong"><strong>The Dominance Ratio Just Hit a 30-Month High</strong></h2>
<p>A second CryptoQuant chart, cited from analyst @gaah_im, shows the LTH/STH dominance ratio at its highest level in 30 months. That ratio rises when long-term holders are accumulating available supply faster, relative to short-term holders, than they have in over two and a half years – and it’s happening while Bitcoin still trades roughly 50% below its last all-time high.</p>
<p>The holders least likely to sell in a panic are the ones currently picking up the coins that other, more recent buyers are shedding at a loss.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
 <p>LTH/STH Dominance Ratio Hits 30-Month High</p>
 <p>“It is worth noting this positive trend, with LTHs rapidly accumulating any available supply while the price is about 50% below its last all-time high.” – By <a href="https://x.com/gaah_im?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">@gaah_im</a><a href="https://t.co/NGX8R7xiI9" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">pic.twitter.com/NGX8R7xiI9</a></p>
 <p>— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href="https://x.com/cryptoquant_com/status/2077035773170254213?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">July 14, 2026</a></p>
</blockquote>
<h2 id="strong-neither-bullish-nor-bearish-this-is-a-redistribution-signal-strong"><strong>Neither Bullish Nor Bearish – This Is a Redistribution Signal</strong></h2>
<p>Treating this as a simple buy or sell signal would overstate what the data shows. CryptoQuant’s own framing describes this as part of building a more durable price base through what it calls a transfer of pain – older, more committed capital absorbing the supply that weaker hands are releasing. That’s a slower, structurally different process than a sharp capitulation event, where forced selling clears out quickly and violently. It does not, on its own, confirm that a bottom is already in place. It describes a mechanism in progress, one that would need to keep developing over subsequent weeks to mean anything conclusive.</p>
<h2 id="strong-what-turns-this-into-a-confirmed-bottom-strong"><strong>What Turns This Into a Confirmed Bottom</strong></h2>
<p>The clearest signal to watch is whether long-term holder NUPL turns positive again while the dominance ratio keeps climbing – that combination would suggest the redistribution is completing rather than continuing to build. The opposite case – LTH NUPL deepening further while dominance stalls – would suggest even committed holders are starting to feel pressure, which would undercut the “durable base” reading entirely. Neither has happened yet, and the CPI-driven bounce today doesn’t resolve the question either way, since a 3.25% price move over 24 hours does not shift a metric that’s been building for over a month.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://ethnews.com/bitcoin-onchain-data-long-term-holders-pain/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin On-Chain Data: Long-Term Holders Now Absorbing the Pain</a> appeared first on <a href="https://ethnews.com" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">ETHNews</a>.</p>

Bitcoin On-Chain Data: Long-Term Holders Now Absorbing the Pain

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