Trader

Frank

2026

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC) is seeing a “textbook” bear-market bottom as speculators take profits on the trip toward $65,000.
Key points:
<ul>
 <li>Bitcoin is repeating previous macro bottom behavior in a "textbook" manner, analysis argues.</li>
 <li>Short-term holders are taking profits on minor recoveries —&nbsp;something "characteristic of a bull market."</li>
 <li>Doubts remain about speculators avoiding future capitulation.</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="analysis-bitcoin-bottom-will-be-very-obvious-in-hindsight">Analysis: Bitcoin bottom will "be very obvious in hindsight"</h2>
In their <a href="https://x.com/FrankAFetter/status/2074660117572698251" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">latest analysis</a> on X, the Bitcoin quant account known as Frank, named for the famous economist Frank A. Fetter, doubled down on conviction that the worst of the BTC price downtrend is over.
“This is a textbook bitcoin bottom; I mean every bottom signal has flashed or is flashing, it’ll be very obvious in hindsight,” one post <a href="https://x.com/FrankAFetter/status/2074621639749226780" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">stated</a>.
An accompanying chart showed the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) for BTC/USD, along with various quantiles.&nbsp;
The ninth quantile is of particular interest, having marked reversals at the pit of the 2022 bear market and March 2020 COVID-19 crash. Price is now back in that reversal zone.<img alt="" height="1370" src="https://s3-images.ctmedia.io/media/content/hmqjutbxyaaql8u.jpeg" width="1321">
BTC/USD chart with 200-week SMA data. Source: Frank/X
 Turning to short-term holders (STHs)&nbsp;— wallets holding BTC for up to six months without selling —&nbsp;another encouraging sign emerges.
For Frank, positive readings from the cohort’s spent output profit ratio (SOPR), which measures the proportion of STH coins moving onchain in profit or loss, are conspicuous.
“A key bitcoin metric might be signaling that a market shift is underway. Sth-sopr just flipped green as short-term holders are realizing profits,” they wrote.&nbsp;
<blockquote>
 “The market treating short-term holders well is a characteristic of a bull market.”
</blockquote><img alt="" height="1260" src="https://s3-images.ctmedia.io/media/content/hmqsyevwmaapbbc.jpeg" width="1320">
Bitcoin STH-SOPR data. Source: Frank/X
<h2 id="short-term-holders-may-still-see-capitulation">Short-term holders may still see "capitulation"</h2>
The findings add to a growing consensus among market participants that the 2026 bear market has little time left to run.
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/markets/604k-becomes-most-important-area-five-things-to-know-in-bitcoin-this-week" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">$60.4K Becomes 'most important area': Five things to know in Bitcoin this week</a>
As <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-can-fall-below-58k-if-one-of-its-cleanest-metrics-copies-history-analysis" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Cointelegraph reported</a>, various onchain indicators and related price yardsticks are hitting levels not seen since 2022.
Adopting a more cautious view of STH-SOPR, meanwhile, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant warns that new lows in the metric could be needed first.
“In stronger bottoming zones, STH SOPR often drops much deeper as short-term holders capitulate and sell at large losses. However, the current level is not near the deeper capitulation area seen around 0.93 in previous local bottom zones,” contributor Trader Germini commented in a <a href="https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/6a4e41bc7a878621f5276fd9-Short-Term-Holders-Are-Not-in-Deep-Capitulation-Yet" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">blog post</a> on Wednesday.&nbsp;
<blockquote>
 “This means the market has cooled down, but it has not yet shown a strong short-term holder capitulation signal.”
</blockquote><img alt="" height="757" src="https://s3-images.ctmedia.io/media/content/screenshot-2026-07-08-at-154000.png" width="1326">
Bitcoin STH-SOPR data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

BTC speculators in focus as analysis says 'textbook Bitcoin bottom' is underway

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