New Era

Charlie

Gold

<h2 id="strong-key-takeaways-strong"><strong>Key Takeaways</strong></h2>
<div class="light-yellow-block">
 <ul>
  <li><strong>Brandt cites the XAU/BTC ratio breaking upward.</strong></li>
  <li><strong>Bitcoin trades 50% below its October 2025 peak.</strong></li>
  <li><strong>Gold holds near $4,174 after a 25% retrace.</strong></li>
  <li><strong>Saylor and on-chain data push the other way.</strong></li>
 </ul>
</div>
<p>In a <a href="https://x.com/PeterLBrandt/status/2073596756324163960" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">post on X</a>, the 50-year trading veteran, known for traditional chart methods, extensive futures-market experience, and widely followed Bitcoin commentary,&nbsp;wrote he is “contemplating” selling some of his Bitcoin for gold, sharing a monthly XAU/BTC chart.</p>
<p>“Looks to me that Gold is going to gain substantially on Bitcoin,” Brandt added. His chart shows the gold-to-Bitcoin ratio at 0.067, curling up from the multi-year base it built after a decade of decline, with a projected path suggesting the ratio breaks out of its long falling channel.</p>
<figure class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img src="https://coindoo.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/HMblMdsbMAAQFnz.jpeg" alt="A long-term monthly technical chart of the XAU/BTC (gold to Bitcoin) ratio, spanning from 2010 to 2028, showing a significant multi-year downward trend encapsulated within a declining channel." width="1200" height="679">
 <figcaption>
  Monthly technical analysis of the XAU/BTC ratio by Peter Brandt.
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The ratio math explains the timing. Since Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak at $126,000, BTC has fallen roughly 50% to around $63,000 at the time of writing, while gold rallied to a record above $5,500 in late January before retracing about 25% to $4,174. Even after gold’s pullback, the pair has moved decisively in the metal’s favor over the cycle, exactly the kind of relative-strength shift Brandt’s channel analysis is built to catch.</p>
<p>Brandt has been consistently cautious on Bitcoin this year,<a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/05/04/veteran-trader-peter-brandt-sees-bitcoin-hitting-usd250-000-but-only-after-a-bottom-later-this-year" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"> previously mapping</a> an investable low in the $40,000–$60,000 zone before hitting $250,000.</p>
<h2 id="the-case-against-the-rotation-read">The Case Against the Rotation Read</h2>
<p>Not everyone accepts the premise that capital is moving from Bitcoin to gold. <a href="https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2069975966529867803?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Analysis by Shanaka Perera</a> argues the rotation story is simply wrong: while headlines focused on ETF outflows, long-term holders added roughly 125,000 BTC, buying the supply that short-term fund investors panic-sold. The same report cites analyst Charlie Bilello’s finding that gold and Bitcoin have both traded below their long-term trend levels simultaneously, suggesting parallel weakness across hard assets rather than money flowing from one to the other, a reading consistent with gold’s own 25% drawdown from its January record.</p>
<p>Strategy’s Michael Saylor offered a third explanation entirely. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gayNo1M1OXU" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Speaking on the New Era Finance podcast this week</a>, he argued that massive capital raises by AI companies have diverted tens of billions of dollars away from crypto in the short term, while maintaining that 2026 is the year Bitcoin achieved consensus status as global digital capital. In his framing, Bitcoin’s underperformance is a liquidity diversion, not a verdict, and the competitor <a href="https://coindoo.com/why-ai-bubble-burst-could-fuel-crypto-bull-market/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">draining capital is AI infrastructure,</a> not bullion.</p>
<h2 id="the-longer-argument-behind-the-trade">The Longer Argument Behind the Trade</h2>
<p>Brandt’s post lands on well-tilled ground. Ray Dalio argued in March that “there is only one gold,” <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-vMNzHgSHI" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">telling the All-In Podcast</a> that central banks will never hold an asset whose every transaction is publicly traceable, while Saylor has long targeted Bitcoin overtaking gold’s market cap within a decade. What makes Brandt’s version different is that it is not ideological. It is a chart trade with a ratio, a channel, and by implication an exit, which is also why it can reverse faster than the philosophical positions on either side.</p>
<div class="read-more pb-3 pt-3 pt-md-2 px-3 my-4 border bg-light">
 <h5 class="text-uppercase border-bottom mb-3 pb-1 d-none d-md-block">READ MORE:</h5><a href="https://coindoo.com/crypto-outperforms-gold-and-sp-500-over-the-past-week/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">
  <div class="contentRight col-4"><span><img src="https://coindoo.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/altcoins-cryptocurrency-0439439439g93g.jpg"></span>
  </div>
  <div class="contentLeft col-8">
   <h4 class="title mb-0">Crypto Outperforms Gold and S&amp;P 500 Over the Past Week</h4>
  </div></a>
</div>
<p>Gold has clearly won the cycle since October on a relative basis, which validates Brandt’s ratio. But gold is itself 25% off its high, long-term Bitcoin holders are absorbing supply rather than distributing it, and the freshest weekly data shows crypto outperforming both gold and equities as <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">ETF</a> flows turned positive. A rotation confirmed at the cycle’s turning point might look exactly like this ambiguity. The XAU/BTC ratio Brandt flagged is now the single cleanest scoreboard for the debate: a sustained breakout validates the gold case, while a rejection at the channel top could mark the moment the fastest-horse trade started running the other way.</p>
<p><strong><em>This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.</em></strong></p>
<p>The post <a href="https://coindoo.com/peter-brandt-eyes-gold-over-bitcoin-as-key-ratio-breaks-out/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Peter Brandt Eyes Gold Over Bitcoin as Key Ratio Breaks Out</a> appeared first on <a href="https://coindoo.com" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Coindoo</a>.</p>

Peter Brandt Eyes Gold Over Bitcoin as Key Ratio Breaks Out

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