bullish

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC) has delivered a key trend change setup in the latest sign that the macro downtrend could soon reverse.
Key points:
<ul>
 <li>Bitcoin is seeing its first “perfected” TD9 indicator downtrend setup on monthly time frames since mid-2022.</li>
 <li>While not a “buy signal” on its own, the move marks a key inflection phase in the bear market, analysis suggests.</li>
 <li>RSI divergences continue to gain sway among those eyeing the final stages of the 2026 market downturn.</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="btc-price-perfected-td9-setup-echoes-final-bear-market-stages">BTC price "perfected" TD9 setup echoes final bear-market stages</h2>
In an <a href="https://x.com/TonySeverinoCMT/status/2072122074420617615" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">X post</a> on Tuesday, analyst Tony Severino flagged a “perfected” buy signal on the TD9 indicator.
TD9 is a derivative of the Tom DeMark Sequential market timing indicator, which alerts traders to potential trend changes. Here, price triggers a notable signal when nine candles in a row close higher (in an uptrend) or lower (in a downtrend) than the closing price four candles prior.
“Bitcoin has ‘perfected’ a TD9 buy setup on the monthly,” Severino commented alongside data from TradingView.<img alt="" height="818" src="https://s3-images.ctmedia.io/media/content/btcusd2026-07-0115-36-32.png" width="1134">
BTC/USD one-month chart with TD9 indicator data. Source: Cointelegraph/<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">TradingView</a>
 The setup is Bitcoin’s first in several years on monthly time frames, with the last TD9 downtrend signal coming in July 2022.
At the time, BTC/USD spent another five months ironing out its bear-market bottom, and as Severino notes, a completed TD9 setup does not "necessarily mean that the bottom is in.”
“Not a buy signal by itself. But if it holds into the close, it’s the kind of thing you pay attention to,” Tony Carrera, host of the Proof of Pain podcast, <a href="https://x.com/tonycarrera/status/2072121870376485023" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">wrote</a> in a further X post.&nbsp;
<blockquote>
 “TD 9s are where you stop chasing fear, zoom out, and ask: Is this where $BTC reminds everyone what happens when they think it’s dead?”
</blockquote>
<h2 id="rsi-divergences-spark-good-odds-for-bitcoin-s-bullish-comeback">RSI divergences spark "good odds" for Bitcoin's bullish comeback</h2>
As <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-tipped-for-q3-macro-bottom-near-50k-as-major-liquidity-grab-looms" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Cointelegraph reported</a>, consensus among market participants still favors new macro lows coming before the bear market truly reverses.
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-is-just-a-5k-drop-away-from-its-best-investment-opportunity-analysis" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin just $5K away from ‘best investment opportunity’ of bear market</a>
Targets differ, with $55,000 now popular, while BTC price cycle comparisons put the current bear market at <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/markets/btc-price-rsi-prints-key-2026-signal-five-things-to-know-in-bitcoin-this-week" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">just over two-thirds complete</a>.
By contrast, <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/markets/btc-price-rsi-prints-key-2026-signal-five-things-to-know-in-bitcoin-this-week" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">bullish divergences</a> across multiple time frames are locking in on the relative strength index (RSI) —&nbsp;a classic hint that trend change is due.
“Not sure I have ever seen more confirmed and potential bullish divergence with oversold RSI on more time frames, ever,” trader, analyst and podcast host Scott Melker <a href="https://x.com/scottmelker/status/2072265256571682886" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">told</a> X followers on Wednesday.&nbsp;
<blockquote>
 “Divs building over multiple time frames is my favorite signal. Good odds.”
</blockquote><img alt="" height="818" src="https://s3-images.ctmedia.io/media/content/btcusd2026-07-0115-40-48.png" width="1134">
BTC/USD one-day chart with four-hour, one-day, one-week RSI data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin bear market ‘dead’ after first TD9 reversal signal since July 2022 fires

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