2024

Bitcoin

Million

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 <h2 id="strong-key-takeaways-strong"><strong>Key Takeaways</strong></h2>
 <ul>
  <li><strong>Bitcoin supply in profit sits at 10.2M BTC with price near $300.</strong></li>
  <li><strong>That reading has broken below a multi-cycle trendline that held since 2011.</strong></li>
  <li><strong>All three major SMAs sit far above price, a bearish configuration.</strong></li>
  <li><strong><a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">ETF</a> flows show institutional retreat while exchange supply keeps falling.</strong></li>
  <li><strong>Coins are leaving exchanges into storage even as price drops.</strong></li>
 </ul>
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<p>Start with supply in profit, the number of coins held above their acquisition price, currently 10.2 million BTC according to <a href="https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/6a3a484e718c636ace57a6e3-Bitcoin-is-under-the-strongest-downward-pressure-in-history" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">report</a>, shared by CryptoQuant. On its own that figure means little, so the chart gives it 15 years of context. An ascending trendline drawn from 2011 yearend connects the supply-in-profit lows of <a href="https://coindoo.com/from-peak-to-bottom-how-far-has-bitcoin-fallen-in-every-market-cycle/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">every major bear market</a>: 2011, 2014-15, 2018, and 2022. Each time Bitcoin crashed, supply in profit dropped hard but held at or above that rising line before recovering. The floor kept climbing because total circulating supply grows every cycle, so even at equivalent pain, more coins exist that were bought at lower prices.</p>
<p><img src="https://coindoo.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/15wpRO_4ade16ab9a5ca400aa560adf3c6692e22209f53fe4253aa66145fc2399c8b36f.webp" alt="bitcoin supply in profit chart, data from Cryptoquant, analyzed by coindoo.com team/ 23.06.2024 " width="2000" height="1125"></p>
<p>What is different now is simple and significant: the current 10.2M reading has pierced below that trendline. Every prior cycle bottom kissed the line and bounced. This one broke through it. That is the anomaly, not just that supply in profit is low, but that it is lower than the historical floor would predict given the price and the size of today’s supply base.</p>
<h2 id="what-10-2-million-coins-actually-means">What 10.2 Million Coins Actually Means</h2>
<p>Context sharpens it further. Total circulating Bitcoin is roughly 20 million, so about 10.2 million coins are in profit at $62K, just over half of all supply, while the other 9.8 million are now held at a loss. That’s a sharp reversal from the euphoria of the $100K-plus highs. Prior bear-market bottoms saw supply in profit fall to similar absolute numbers, but on a much smaller total supply base, which makes the percentage of supply underwater right now higher than the raw figure suggests.</p>
<p>For perspective, supply in profit peaked near 19-20 million in late 2024 and early 2025 when Bitcoin traded above $100K, the euphoria zone where almost every holder was green. The slide to 10.2M reflects how much of that supply has fallen back into loss as price dropped from $125K to $62K.</p>
<h2 id="the-price-picture-is-weak">The Price Picture Is Weak</h2>
<p>The<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/chart/Kp2BMI6e/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"> TradingView daily chart</a> is a headache for bulls right now. Bitcoin opened the day at $63,950, fell to $61,862, and trades around $62,366, down 2.48%. All three major moving averages sit stacked well above price: the 50-day at $71,457, the 100-day at $72,127, and the 200-day at $76,450.</p>
<p><img src="https://coindoo.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/IMAGE-2026-06-23-131911.jpg" alt="Bitcoin price chart, showing 50,100,200 SMA, 23.06.2026" width="1280" height="931"></p>
<p>Price is roughly $9,000 below even the nearest average, with no SMA support anywhere close. RSI at 36.60 is approaching oversold without yet triggering a bounce, and today’s candle is retesting the lows set during the sharp June 3-5 selloff.</p>
<h2 id="etf-flows-institutions-are-leaving">ETF Flows: Institutions Are Leaving</h2>
<p>The regulated-money picture confirms the weakness. Of the 12 trading days according to <a href="https://sosovalue.com/assets/etf/us-btc-spot" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">SoSoValue data</a>, only three posted net inflows: June 4 ($3.05M), June 12 ($85.85M), and June 16 ($10.06M). Every other session was a net outflow. The worst single day was June 5 at -$325.69M, lining up with the price capitulation on the chart, and the most recent reading, June 22, was -$68.18M. There is no inflow trend forming. The green days are isolated and small against the red ones. Through the ETF channel, institutional money is leaving, not accumulating.</p>
<div class="read-more pb-3 pt-3 pt-md-2 px-3 my-4 border bg-light">
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<h2 id="the-metric-that-ties-it-together">The Metric That Ties It Together</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/chart/flow-indicator/exchange-supply-ratio?exchange=all_exchange&amp;window=DAY&amp;sma=0&amp;ema=0&amp;priceScale=log&amp;metricScale=linear&amp;chartStyle=line" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">exchange supply ratio</a> is the most structurally telling of the set, and it cuts against the ETF story. The ratio measures the share of total BTC supply sitting on exchanges, and it currently reads 0.133, near the lowest on the entire chart back to May 2023. It peaked around 0.165-0.166 in late 2023 and early 2024 and has fallen almost continuously since, with the decline accelerating from mid-2025 as price slid from $125K to $62K.</p>
<p><img src="https://coindoo.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/IMAGE-2026-06-23-131912.jpg" alt="Bitcoin supply on exchanges, cryptoquant data, 23.06.2024" width="1280" height="720"></p>
<p>That combination is the key. Price is falling and exchange supply is falling at the same time. Coins are leaving exchanges during a drawdown, which is not panic selling into exchanges, it is withdrawal into cold storage. That directly contradicts what the ETF outflows imply about sentiment, and it lines up with the accumulation read from the supply-in-profit picture.</p>
<h2 id="the-unified-read">The Unified Read</h2>
<p>Put it together and you get a market with two holder classes moving in opposite directions at $62K. ETF holders are selling, the redemptions are steady and the inflow days are token. At the same time, coins pulled off exchanges are probably going into storage, not back into selling pressure, which could mean that whoever is absorbing this supply is taking it offline immediately.</p>
<p>Of course there is another reading of the situation. When we say “cold storage,” we assume the investor has a long-term horizon (HODL). However, if those coins are moving into DeFi or OTC desks, it actually means they remain “active” and ready to be sold at a certain price. If exchange outflows are massive, but we simultaneously see a spike in DeFi protocol activity, it may suggest a search for yield rather than pure long-term accumulation.</p>
<p>The technical picture is weak, RSI near oversold, price well below all three SMAs with no support nearby, while the on-chain structure quietly tightens.</p>
<p>Still the chart shows the trendline broke; it does not show whether that break is a genuine structural failure or a temporary undershoot before recovery. It cannot tell you who holds those 10.2 million coins, or whether this level marks capitulation or just a pause before more downside. What it does show, clearly, is a divergence: regulated money stepping back while on-chain holders pull supply into cold storage. Which of those two forces wins from here is the one thing the data cannot yet answer.</p>
<div class="light-yellow-block"><strong>This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a professional before making investment decisions.</strong>
</div>
<p>The post <a href="https://coindoo.com/bitcoins-15-year-supply-trendline-breaks-what-the-data-reveals/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin’s 15-Year Supply Trendline Breaks: What the Data Reveals</a> appeared first on <a href="https://coindoo.com" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Coindoo</a>.</p>

Bitcoin’s 15-Year Supply Trendline Breaks: What the Data Reveals

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