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Wall Street is again betting on a merger between Tesla and SpaceX after the rocket maker's record listing, though analysts caution the combined company would still lose money.
<blockquote>
 <h2 id="key-points">Key Points:</h2>
 <ul>
 <li><a href="https://yellow.com/news/spacex-stock-12-ipo-rally" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">SpaceX completed the largest IPO</a> on record, and its shares have climbed sharply since the Jun. 12 debut.</li>
 <li>Renewed talk points to a possible Tesla merger that would form a company worth about $3.4 trillion.</li>
 <li>Analysts warn the merged business would post negative annual earnings based on recent results.</li>
 </ul>
</blockquote>
<h2 id="spacex-ipo-revives-merger-talk">SpaceX IPO Revives Merger Talk</h2>
SpaceX <a href="https://www.heygotrade.com/en/news/spacex-ipo-spcx-surge-tesla-merger-speculation/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">priced</a> its stock at $135 and began trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX on Jun. 12. The sale raised about $75 billion, later swelling to $85.7 billion, and valued the firm near $1.77 trillion.
No listing has ever been bigger.
A tie-up may not be far off. SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell<a href="https://qz.com/spacex-tesla-merger-gwynne-shotwell-ipo-061226" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">hinted</a> that a combination sits in the company's future, a deal she said could ease life for Elon Musk, who already runs both firms and would steer the merged board.
The two companies already work closely. They share a planned $55 billion chip plant, called Terafab, plus a string of supply deals. Tesla shares last <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/tesla-merger-talk-spacex-reshapes-200713727.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">closed</a> near $406, leaving the carmaker worth about $1.65 trillion, a value that nearly matches SpaceX despite thinner profits.
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<h2 id="why-the-3-4-trillion-math-matters">Why The $3.4 Trillion Math Matters</h2>
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/m-a/26/05/52719375/elon-musk-mega-merger-dan-ives-puts-spacex-tesla-tie-up-odds-at-80" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">pegged</a> the odds of a deal near 80%, calling the union a holy grail for Musk's push into AI. A combination would value the pair around $3.4 trillion and rank it fifth among the world's biggest listed firms.
The trouble is profit. Researchers who <a href="https://www.billionaires.africa/2026/06/01/a-spacex-tesla-merger-would-create-a-3-4-trillion-giant-that-loses-money-every-year/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">estimated</a> the merged numbers put combined yearly earnings near minus $1 billion, after SpaceX burned about $14 billion in free cash flow last year and warned of more outlays ahead. Tesla, whose own earnings have slid toward $3.9 billion from $15 billion in 2023, leans on fading regulatory credits and on Bitcoin<a href="https://yellow.com/asset/btc" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">(BTC)</a> holdings that swing its profit each quarter.
A deal would also dilute SpaceX backers, cutting their stake to about 52% even without a premium. They would then shoulder Tesla's heavy spending on robots, self-driving cars and data centers.
Musk has long folded his ventures together. He merged X with xAI, then sold both to SpaceX, after buying SolarCity with Tesla stock in a $2.6 billion deal in 2016. Skeptics at Oppenheimer<a href="https://www.ainvest.com/news/prediction-markets-betting-tesla-spacex-merger-math-wrong-2606/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">countered</a> that the two firms may serve him better apart, leaving his grandest deal unbuilt.
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Tesla SpaceX Merger Talk: $3.4T Giant That Would Still Lose Money

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