Chair

Bitcoin

Elon Musk

<a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin</a> (BTC) starts the new trading week on a bullish note, gaining nearly 4.9% over the past 24 hours. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at&nbsp;$67,171.47, as per <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">CoinGecko</a>.
The broader altcoin market is also reacting positively to reports of a potential United States-Iran deal, which is said to be close to being signed.&nbsp;Ethereum (ETH) is following Bitcoin’s lead, rising 10.9% to&nbsp;$1,843.34.&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/trading/bitcoin-xrp-surge-as-u-s-iran-near-peace-deal" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Related: Bitcoin, XRP surge as U.S.-Iran near peace deal</a>
<h2 id="most-important-price-indicator-for-crypto">Most important price indicator for crypto</h2>
On Wednesday, June 17, 2026, the FED will present its latest data under new Chair Kevin Warsh. According to the <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">official Fed calendar</a>, this is an FOMC meeting with new projections, including updated assessments of inflation, growth, and interest rates.
According to the <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">CME FedWatch Tool</a>, interest rates are expected to remain unchanged with a calculated probability of 98.6%.&nbsp;
<figure>
 <figcaption>
 Target rate probabilities for June 17 Fed meeting 
 <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">FedWatch Tool</a>
 </figcaption>
</figure>
As this is Kevin Warsh’s <a href="https://www.thestreet.com/fed/warshs-first-fed-meeting-resets-interest-rate-cut-bets" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">first major public appearance</a> as Fed Chair, Wall Street will be watching not only for comments on interest rates, but also for clues on how he intends to shape the central bank’s communication strategy and broader monetary policy approach.
The updated Dot Plot will provide further guidance.&nbsp;The dot plot is a chart the Federal Reserve publishes four times a year showing where each member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) thinks interest rates should be at the end of the next few years and over the longer run.
If the projections point to fewer rate cuts than markets currently expect, Bitcoin could face downside pressure. If, however, the Dot Plot confirms that additional rate cuts remain possible later this year, this would likely be viewed as a positive signal for the broader crypto market.
For Bitcoin, a dovish Fed signal would be especially powerful if it coincides with stable or rising inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. In that scenario, macroeconomic tailwinds and institutional demand could reinforce each other. Conversely, a hawkish Fed tone combined with renewed ETF outflows would likely intensify selling pressure.
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<h2 id="u-s-economic-data">U.S. economic data</h2>
Today’s macroeconomic calendar includes the Empire State Manufacturing Index as well as key housing market data. On Tuesday, investors will turn their attention to new housing construction figures, followed by the release of U.S. retail sales data for May on Wednesday.
Stronger-than-expected retail sales would not necessarily be bullish for Bitcoin. On the contrary, resilient consumer spending could suggest that the US economy remains robust, giving the Federal Reserve less urgency to move toward rate cuts.&nbsp;
Weaker data, however, could strengthen expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy later this year, which would generally support Bitcoin as lower interest rates and falling yields tend to increase demand for riskier assets.
Another important factor is Bitcoin ETF flows. Farside data <a href="https://farside.co.uk/btc/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">shows</a> that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded multiple net outflows in early June, including significant outflows on June 3, 5, and 8. On June 12, however, Farside reported a net inflow of $85.9 million.
Whether Friday’s positive momentum continues will depend largely on two factors: whether the U.S.-Iran deal is signed without further delays and how the Federal Reserve positions itself on Wednesday. Any renewed geopolitical escalation, including further Israeli military action in the region, could quickly <a href="https://www.thestreet.com/economy/goldman-sachs-quietly-resets-oil-price-forecast-for-2027" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">undermine</a> risk sentiment and delay a broader market recovery.
<h2 id="u-s-holiday-on-friday-adds-further-uncertainty">U.S. holiday on Friday adds further uncertainty</h2>
An additional factor comes into play on Friday. Due to Juneteenth, U.S. markets will be closed.&nbsp;
For the crypto market, this does not mean that trading stops, as crypto continues to trade around the clock. However, lower liquidity from traditional financial markets can amplify price movements, especially if large positions remain open after the Fed decision.
For Bitcoin, the setup is therefore clear. This week, individual crypto-specific headlines are likely to take a backseat. Instead, macroeconomic data, liquidity conditions, and the positioning of large market participants will set the tone.&nbsp;
The Fed remains the most important catalyst, while ETF flows will show whether institutional buyers are returning to the market with greater conviction.&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/fed/trumps-new-fed-chair-to-cut-rates-by-a-lot-sends-bitcoin-surging" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Related: Trump's new Fed Chair to cut 'rates by a lot', sends Bitcoin surging</a>

Bitcoin climbs as traders eye Fed, Iran deal

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