2026

Galaxy

Bitcoin

<h2 id="b-tldr-b">TLDR:</h2>
<ul>
 <li>Galaxy Research says only 4 of 13 historical bottom indicators have triggered in the current drawdown.</li>
 <li>The firm projects a base-case Bitcoin floor of $40K–$46K, with a harsh washout scenario near $30K–$37K.</li>
 <li>October 2025 marked Bitcoin’s calmest cycle top ever, with MVRV reaching just 2.29 against prior highs of 5.91.</li>
 <li>The cost basis sits at 43.7% of the all-time high, mechanically raising the dollar floor compared to past cycles.</li>
</ul>
Galaxy Research <a href="https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/bitcoin-four-year-cycle-where-is-the-bottom" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">released a report</a> on June 12 warning that Bitcoin has likely not reached its cycle bottom. The firm analyzed on-chain and market data across 13 historical indicators, finding only four have triggered during the current drawdown. 
Based on cost-basis arithmetic and cycle timing, Galaxy projects a base-case floor between $40,000 and $46,000, with a more severe capitulation scenario ranging from $30,000 to $37,000 by late 2026.
<h2 id="b-cycle-indicators-point-to-an-unfinished-decline-b">Cycle Indicators Point to an Unfinished Decline</h2>
Bitcoin’s current drawdown sits at roughly 51% from its October 2025 all-time high. That decline, while painful, remains far milder than the 77% to 85% drops that ended prior bear markets. 
Galaxy’s scoring system covers five indicator families: valuation, profit-taking, miner behavior, trend, and sentiment. Of 13 signals historically present at every <a href="https://blockonomi.com/is-the-bitcoin-bottom-near-three-on-chain-indicators-suggest-the-market-structure-is-shifting/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">cycle bottom,</a> only four have activated.
The four triggered indicators include a fear sentiment reading, a trend gauge near its lower range, an initial dip below the 200-week moving average, and the Hash Ribbons recovery cross. 
That last signal flipped in early June, marking the first miner-side confirmation this cycle. However, Galaxy notes this cross appeared earlier than in prior cycles, possibly due to miners shifting capacity toward artificial intelligence.
The strongest bottom signals remain absent. Price has not fallen below the on-chain cost basis, holders are not sitting in aggregate losses, and sustained loss-taking has not materialized. 
Those three conditions have appeared at every past <a href="https://coincentral.com/bitcoin-bear-market-could-last-until-early-2027-says-cryptoquant-ceo/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">bear-market</a> low without exception. Their absence is the clearest argument that this drawdown has further to run.
Timing also supports a later bottom. Prior cycles took 12 to 13 months from peak to trough. The current drawdown is only about eight months old as of the report date, June 9, 2026. By the cycle clock, Galaxy says the window for a bear-market low does not open until roughly late 2026.
At the same stage in past cycles, roughly 242 days after the peak, the 2017 to 2018 and 2021 to 2022 drawdowns were both near 68% down. 
The current cycle, at 51% down, has only recently fallen below where the 2013 to 2015 cycle stood at the same point. That comparison reinforces the view that a final low remains ahead.
<h2 id="b-a-calmer-top-has-raised-the-dollar-floor-b">A Calmer Top Has Raised the Dollar Floor</h2>
The October 2025 peak was the quietest cycle top <a href="https://parameter.io/bitcoin-btc-surges-3-following-trumps-us-iran-peace-deal-announcement/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin</a> has ever produced. The market value to realized value ratio, known as MVRV, reached just 2.29 at that high. 
Prior cycle tops registered MVRV readings between 2.93 and 5.91. Only two of 11 classic topping indicators confirmed, and the Pi Cycle Top signal never triggered.
Because the top was calm, the cost basis, which is the average price all coin holders paid, ended up unusually close to the all-time high. It sits at 43.7% of that peak, compared to 34.2%, 21.2%, and 16.9% in the three prior cycles. 
That starting position mechanically limits how far a bottom falls in dollar terms, even if the percentage behavior of a bottom matches past cycles exactly.
Galaxy translates this into concrete price levels. A continuation of the cycle-by-cycle trend toward fair value, with an MVRV of 0.75 to 0.86, produces the base-case range of $40,000 to $46,000. 
A harsher washout matching 2018 or 2022 intensity, with <a href="https://moneycheck.com/bitcoin-sharpe-ratio-rebounds-while-mvrv-band-makes-73700-the-key-support-level/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">MVRV</a> between 0.56 and 0.70, puts the floor at $30,000 to $37,000. A shallow outcome near the cost basis would hold around $51,000 to $54,000.
The cost basis itself, however, can fall during a genuine sell-off. As coins change hands at a loss, the average is pulled lower, which drags the floor down with it. 
Galaxy notes that a 10% to 30% drop in the cost basis during a panic could push the implied bottom from roughly $40,000 back toward $28,000, back inside the historical range.
Galaxy acknowledges that spot ETF inflows and corporate treasury buying are new factors this cycle. Still, ETF flows turned net negative in 2026, and treasury buyers tend to purchase into strength rather than absorb declines. Neither factor is treated as a reliable floor by the firm.
The post <a href="https://blockonomi.com/galaxy-research-says-bitcoin-bottom-is-not-in-projects-40k-46k-base-case-floor-by-late-2026/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Galaxy Research Says Bitcoin Bottom Is Not In, Projects $40K–$46K Base-Case Floor by Late 2026</a> appeared first on <a href="https://blockonomi.com" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Blockonomi</a>.

Galaxy Research Says Bitcoin Bottom Is Not In, Projects $40K–$46K Base-Case Floor by Late 2026

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