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Since 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) has posted four major corrections after interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BOJ), with declines ranging from 18% to 28%. This dynamic places renewed attention on the BOJ's June 16 policy decision.&nbsp;
Data currently point to a variety of pressures on BTC, with BTC whale distribution and exchange inflows possibly carrying more weight than Japanese monetary policy.&nbsp;&nbsp;
<h2 id="boj-hikes-and-bitcoin-drawdowns-will-history-repeat">BOJ hikes and Bitcoin drawdowns: Will history repeat?</h2>
The relationship between BOJ policy and Bitcoin has gained attention because each rate increase since Japan ended its negative interest rate policy has been followed by a sizable correction.&nbsp;
Following the March 19, 2024, hike, Bitcoin corrected by 18%. The July 31, 2024, increase preceded a 18.5% decline.&nbsp;
After the Jan. 24, 2025, hike, Bitcoin fell nearly 25%, while the Dec. 19, 2025, decision was followed by a 28% drawdown.&nbsp;
Across the four events, Bitcoin's average decline was 22.4%.&nbsp;
<img alt="Pending Bank of Japan rate decision may impact Bitcoin price: Should traders prepare?" height="1114" src="https://s3-images.ctmedia.io/media/content/pasted-image-1407.png" width="2048">
BTC/USD, one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The sell-offs did not occur under identical conditions. The March 2024 correction followed Bitcoin's breakout to new all-time highs during the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) cycle. The July 2024 decline followed months of consolidation below peak levels and coincided with the sharp unwind of the yen carry trade, which affected global markets.&nbsp;
The January and December 2025 drawdowns followed <a href="https://cryptoquant.com/community/dashboard/66c366531dad4a62a5d42c79" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">extended</a> rallies and periods of contraction for both BTC spot and futures 30-day demand.&nbsp;
<img alt="Pending Bank of Japan rate decision may impact Bitcoin price: Should traders prepare?" height="1152" src="https://s3-images.ctmedia.io/media/content/pasted-image-1408.png" width="2048">
BTC: spot and perpetual futures demand growth contraction. Source: CryptoQuant
The relationship between BOJ policy and Bitcoin is often linked to the yen carry trade. For years, investors borrowed yen at low rates and deployed that capital into higher-yielding assets, including stocks and cryptocurrencies.&nbsp;
When the BOJ raises rates, some of those positions can be reduced, weighing on risk assets. The July 2024 hike coincided with one of the largest carry-trade unwinds in recent years and a sharp sell-off across global markets, not only BTC.&nbsp;
The influence of that particular condition appears smaller today. The BOJ has already raised rates to 0.75% from -0.1% in March 2024, while Japan's 10-year government bond yield <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/government-bond-yield" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">climbed</a> to 2.68% from 0.63% over the same period.&nbsp;
<img alt="Pending Bank of Japan rate decision may impact Bitcoin price: Should traders prepare?" height="1040" src="https://s3-images.ctmedia.io/media/content/pasted-image-1409.png" width="1500">
Japan's 10-year bond yield increase since 2024. Source: TradingEconomics
With Japan's borrowing costs already higher than during the negative-rate era, each additional hike represents a smaller policy shift than the BOJ's initial move away from ultra-loose monetary policy. The June 16 meeting would extend an existing tightening cycle rather than introduce a new one.&nbsp;
Likewise, market analyst Cryptic Trades noted that concerns about a renewed yen carry-trade unwind are overblown, arguing that Japan has effectively moved away from its deflationary policy framework in 2024. The analyst <a href="https://x.com/CrypticTrades_/status/2064348952334319951?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">added</a>,
<blockquote>
 “The Yen Carry Trade has been dead ever since 2024. It is also a BIG nothing burger for the markets.”
</blockquote>
<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-price-may-slip-under-30k-as-institutions-dump-450-of-daily-btc-supply" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Related: Bitcoin price may slide toward $30K as institutions dump 450% of daily BTC supply</a>
<h2 id="btc-whales-add-to-the-pressure">BTC whales add to the pressure</h2>
While the BOJ meeting is a macro event that traders may monitor, onchain data points to a more immediate source of pressure.
Crypto analyst MorenoDV <a href="https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/6a27f901a8af494cbea1ed89-Big-Players-Are-Driving-Bitcoin-Toward-Its-Final-Stress-Test" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">noted</a> that Binance has recorded rising BTC inflows from wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC and 1,000–10,000 BTC since the sell-off began in early June. As a result, the exchange's 30-day whale inflow sum has climbed to $6.6 billion.&nbsp;
<img alt="Pending Bank of Japan rate decision may impact Bitcoin price: Should traders prepare?" height="1152" src="https://s3-images.ctmedia.io/media/content/pasted-image-1410.png" width="2048">
Bitcoin whale to exchange flow. Source: CryptoQuant
The pressure is already visible in realized activity. Short- and long-term whales have collectively locked in more than $2.5 billion in losses during the decline, indicating that some large holders have actively reduced exposure.
Short-term whales appear particularly vulnerable. The cohort is carrying roughly $16 billion in unrealized losses after briefly returning to profit for around 10 days in early May. Those positions now sit close to break-even levels, creating a potential source of supply during rebounds. MorenoDV said,&nbsp;
<blockquote>
 “Taken together, these three readings describe the stress profile of a late-stage bear market: capitulating whales, distribution into weakness, and a fragile short-term cohort with its finger on the trigger.”
</blockquote>
<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-may-act-as-a-canary-in-the-coal-mine-as-risk-off-pressure-spreads-bitwise" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Related: Bitcoin may act as a ‘canary in the coal mine’ as risk-off pressure spreads: Bitwise</a>

Pending Bank of Japan rate decision may impact Bitcoin price: Should traders prepare?

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