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XRP is sitting on what analyst EGRAG CRYPTO is calling a “macro decision zone,” with the next monthly candle close likely determining whether the token carves out a double bottom or slides toward $0.80.
Although the token has bounced back after touching a 19-month low of $1.05 last week, it still hasn’t cleared the levels that would give bulls any real confidence.
<h2 id="the-framework">The Framework</h2>
According to EGRAG, a monthly close above $1.40 would confirm that the $1.05 low was the bottom.&nbsp;However, in their <a href="https://x.com/egragcrypto/status/2064249290487210362?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">opinion</a>, reclaiming $1.61 to $1.65 would be where genuine bullish recovery begins, with a break above $1.70 adding another layer of confirmation. Still, none of those levels have been touched as of now.
The analyst also made a case for the downside, saying that if XRP lost momentum, it could go back down to $0.80. Interestingly, they didn’t flag any intermediate support between the current price and that level if the structure breaks down.
<blockquote>
 “Hold ground then → double bottom possible,” they wrote. “Lose momentum then → $0.80 retest likely.”
</blockquote>
Earlier, EGRAG <a href="https://x.com/egragcrypto/status/2064218145213100153?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">pointed out</a> that XRP had reached $1.1860 and was “building momentum for the second push,” placing a short-term target of $1.19 to $1.25. The analyst did warn that losing $1.14 would open the door to a retest of $1.10.
Fellow market watcher CasiTrades added a complementary read of their own, <a href="https://x.com/CasiTrades/status/2064058961263808931?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">noting</a> that the Ripple token had “perfectly” hit a major .786 macro Fibonacci support at $1.09 on Coinbase.&nbsp;The crypto trader also identified $1.19 and $1.27 as resistance zones that, if they failed, could lead to a deeper low toward the $0.90 area.
However, if XRP can push through both, it would suggest that the market is building a new trend rather than setting up for another wave lower.
<h2 id="xrp-recovery-amid-sbi-s-reward-program-launch">XRP Recovery Amid SBI’s Reward Program Launch</h2>
Some traders are looking beyond daily price action, with one of them, ChartNerd, noting that XRP had <a href="https://x.com/ChartNerdTA/status/2064240097520726083?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">closed</a> below its 200-week simple moving average, a development that in the past came just before cycle lows.
At the time of writing, the world’s sixth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap had gained just over 1% in 24 hours. The uptick followed news that Japan’s SBI Bank had launched a program that lets customers exchange their deposit interest for Bitcoin, Ethereum, or XRP.
However, it was still down by more than 8% over the last seven days, underperforming the broader crypto market, which had shed about 5.4% of its value in the same period.&nbsp;XRP is also off over 18% across one month and nearly 49% year-on-year, while sitting 68% below its July 2025 all-time high.
But that decline isn’t all bad news, as on-chain analytics platform Santiment, using its 30-day MVRV metric, <a href="https://cryptopotato.com/btc-eth-and-xrp-flash-buy-signals-after-market-sell-off-santiment/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">said</a> the asset was in a “fair buy” zone where long-term investors could start accumulating.
Meanwhile, on the longer horizon, ChartNerd <a href="https://cryptopotato.com/analyst-eyes-8-to-27-xrp-targets-after-potential-2026-bottom/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">placed</a> potential Fibonacci extension targets on XRP at $8, $13, and $27, as long as a proper cycle bottom forms before year-end.
The post <a href="https://cryptopotato.com/xrp-faces-key-test-1-40-breakout-or-0-80-retest/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">XRP Faces Key Test: $1.40 Breakout or $0.80 Retest</a> appeared first on <a href="https://cryptopotato.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">CryptoPotato</a>.

XRP Faces Key Test: $1.40 Breakout or $0.80 Retest

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