Trader

Paradox

Wednesday

Bitcoin

Rekt

Bitcoin (BTC) hovered near two-month lows on Wednesday as 2022 bear-market comparisons returned.
Key points:
<ul>
 <li>Bitcoin traders bring back the 2022 bear market to assess where BTC price action might go next.</li>
 <li>History shows a new lower high followed by a breakdown of a key 50-month trend line.</li>
 <li>That trend line has held throughout 2026 so far.</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="analysis-bitcoin-50-month-trend-line-breakdown-likely">Analysis: Bitcoin 50-month trend line breakdown "likely"</h2>
Data from TradingView showed cooling BTC price volatility after a trip to $65,362 on Bitstamp — a level <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-falls-below-66k-as-us-iran-strikes-resume" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">last seen in early April</a>.<img alt="Bitcoin copying 2022 'almost perfectly' as trader sees key support failing" height="818" src="https://s3-images.ctmedia.io/media/content/btcusd2026-06-0315-50-36.png" width="1134">
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">TradingView</a>
 After <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoins-crash-to-65k-triggers-18b-in-crypto-liquidations" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">billions of dollars in liquidations</a>, BTC/USD fielded new warnings that the worst of the bear market may still be ahead.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital focused on the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) trend line at $66,628.
“Over time, Bitcoin is likely to breakdown from this EMA and continue macro downside in this Bear Market,” he <a href="https://x.com/rektcapital/status/2062147302886695352" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">warned</a> in one of several posts on X.
Rekt Capital said that if history were to repeat from the 2022 bear market, price should now see a relief bounce to form a lower high before returning to the 50-month EMA, which would in turn fail as support.
“Historically, Bitcoin tends to rebound initially from the 50-Month EMA but then loses it as support as the Bear Cycle progresses,” he <a href="https://x.com/rektcapital/status/2062162508434006050" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">added</a>.<img alt="Bitcoin copying 2022 'almost perfectly' as trader sees key support failing" height="1402" src="https://s3-images.ctmedia.io/media/content/hj438elwgaeh1vs.jpeg" width="1814">
BTC/USD one-month chart with 21, 50EMA. Source: Rekt Capital/X
 Continuing, trader Leviathan argued that the 2026 bear market was copying its predecessor “almost perfectly.”
“Every stage printing in the same order,” an X post <a href="https://x.com/TechLeviathan/status/2062167024688619771" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">reported</a>, calling $60,000 the “line that matters.”
<blockquote>
 “Hold it - liquidity flush complete, recovery begins. Lose it - deeper correction, no support below. One level, two completely different outcomes. Market makes the call soon.”
</blockquote><img alt="Bitcoin copying 2022 'almost perfectly' as trader sees key support failing" height="868" src="https://s3-images.ctmedia.io/media/content/screenshot-2026-06-03-at-152532.png" width="1440">
BTC/USD two-week chart comparison. Source: Leviathan/X
 Another trader, Killa, leveraged 2022 price action to <a href="https://x.com/KillaXBT/status/2062164900903109046" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">suggest</a> “weeks” of consolidatory movement between $63,000 and $65,000 next.<img alt="Bitcoin copying 2022 'almost perfectly' as trader sees key support failing" height="1059" src="https://s3-images.ctmedia.io/media/content/hj5dkvxwoaajia2.png" width="2441">
BTC price chart comparison. Source: Killa/X
<h2 id="br-btc-price-support-reclaim-could-offer-700-returns"> BTC price support reclaim could offer 700%+ returns</h2>
A silver lining on the day came from historical reactions to the 50-month EMA.
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/markets/crypto-extreme-fear-worst-in-two-months-as-analysis-sees-bitcoin-price-rebound" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin has hit 'max fear' below $67K as analysis sees BTC price rebound</a>
Analytics account Paradox noted the extent of potential gains that could come from Bitcoin’s eventual reclaim of the trend line after losing it.
“$BTC lost the monthly 50MA in 2022. It reclaimed it 5 months later, delivering a 715% return over the next 2 years,” it <a href="https://x.com/TheTradeParadox/status/2062115878808760759" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">told</a> X followers.
In February, BTC/USD saw several daily closes below the trend line, ultimately avoiding a full breakdown. In March and April, meanwhile, it functioned successfully as support.<img alt="Bitcoin copying 2022 'almost perfectly' as trader sees key support failing" height="818" src="https://s3-images.ctmedia.io/media/content/btcusd2026-06-0315-48-52.png" width="1134">
BTC/USD one-day chart with 50-month EMA (blue line). Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin copying 2022 'almost perfectly' as trader sees key support failing

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