Shift

Tema

Billion

<h2 id="first-etf-exposure-to-kalshi">First ETF Exposure to Kalshi</h2>
The <a href="https://x.com/Temaetfs" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">@Temaetfs</a> Durable Quality ETF (<a href="https://x.com/search?q=%24TOLL&amp;src=cashtag_click" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">$TOLL</a>) has become the first exchange-traded fund to take a stake in Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange. <a href="https://x.com/Kalshi" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">@Kalshi</a> now accounts for roughly 8.4% of the $48 million fund. Until last Thursday, exposure to the company was exclusively the domain of venture capital investors.
<cite>Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market and financial exchange where users trade event contracts, binary derivatives that settle based on real-world outcomes. Founded in 2018 and launched to the public in 2021, it is widely described as the first fully regulated U.S. venue dedicated to event-based contracts.</cite>
<cite>Kalshi most recently raised $1 billion in a Series F funding round at a $22 billion valuation, with Coatue leading the round. Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, IVP, Paradigm, Morgan Stanley, and Ark Invest also participated.</cite><cite>The company now generates $1.5 billion in annualized revenue while serving 2 million monthly users, with annualized trading volume reaching $178 billion, more than tripling over the past six months.</cite>
<h2 id="a-broader-shift-in-private-market-access">A Broader Shift in Private Market Access</h2>
The move by Tema is part of a growing trend to wrap privately held companies into ETF structures, giving retail investors access to names that have historically been locked behind accreditation requirements. <cite>There is clear enthusiasm among retail investors for accessing prediction market equities, but the problem is that major names such as Kalshi remain privately held.</cite>
The same structural dynamic is playing out elsewhere. SpaceX and OpenAI are both reportedly heading toward public markets through Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley-led processes, underscoring how the private-to-public pipeline is accelerating across high-growth sectors.
<cite>In 2025, prediction markets emerged as a mainstream financial force, with traders pouring billions of dollars into bets on everything from NFL games to Federal Reserve rate decisions. While the 2024 U.S. election marked their breakout moment, prediction markets have since diversified into economics, technology, science, and culture.</cite>
<cite>Wall Street firms that initially treated prediction markets as a niche curiosity have now embraced the sector. Robinhood integrated Kalshi-powered event contracts into its platform, while Coinbase partnered with Kalshi to expand prediction market access for crypto-native users.</cite> The Tema ETF inclusion is the latest signal that the market is finding new routes into the hands of everyday investors, raising an obvious question: which private company gets wrapped into an ETF structure next?
Sources: <a href="https://decrypt.co/367108/prediction-market-startup-kalshi-boosts-valuation-22-billion" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Decrypt: Kalshi Raises $1 Billion at $22 Billion Valuation</a> <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/03/07/kalshi-polymarket-seeking-usd20-billion-valuations-in-fundraising-talks-wsj" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">CoinDesk: Kalshi and Polymarket Seeking $20 Billion Valuations</a> <a href="https://www.britannica.com/money/Kalshi-Inc" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Britannica Money: Kalshi Inc.</a>

Retail can now buy a piece of Kalshi for the first time

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