Definitive

bullish

Bitcoin

Champion

Rare

<h2 id="a-rare-on-chain-signal">A Rare On-Chain Signal</h2>
<a href="https://x.com/glassnode" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">@glassnode</a>'s RHODL ratio, a key on-chain metric tracking the balance between long-term and short-term <a href="https://x.com/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=cashtag_click" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">$BTC</a> holders, is flashing signals more consistent with a market bottom than a cycle top after hitting a reading of 4.5. Currently at its third-highest level on record, the indicator shows that wealth is increasingly concentrated in older coins, as younger, more speculative holdings have been largely flushed out during a 50% correction in Bitcoin over the past six months.
The ratio compares the value of coins held by longer-term investors — typically those holding for six months to three years — against coins held by short-term participants, defined as one day to three months. By measuring this balance, it offers insight into whether the market is dominated by seasoned holders or fresh demand from new entrants. A rising ratio often reflects coins aging and a decline in speculative activity, rather than an influx of new buyers.
<h2 id="historical-context-and-what-comes-next">Historical Context and What Comes Next</h2>
The only two moments when the ratio exceeded the current level were 2015, with a reading of 5, and 2022, with a reading of 7 — both coinciding with historical cycle lows. In both prior instances, a sustained bull market followed.
This opens the possibility that there may be additional room for further price decline. However, reaching even higher levels would require an even deeper collapse in short-term activity and a near-total exhaustion of demand — conditions that today appear less likely. Bitcoin's recovery — which rose 25% from February lows — perpetual funding rates in negative territory, and a favourable macroeconomic environment point to a stabilisation scenario rather than further deterioration. Glassnode interprets these signals as more consistent with a market bottom than with a cycle top, which could mark the beginning of a new bullish phase for Bitcoin.
The on-chain setup is further supported by institutional sentiment. According to data flagged by <a href="https://x.com/BSCNews" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">@BSCNews</a>, 75% of institutions surveyed consider <a href="https://x.com/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=cashtag_click" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">$BTC</a> undervalued at current levels — a combination that, taken together with negative funding rates and the RHODL reading, presents a picture more characteristic of a floor than a ceiling.
It is worth noting that the RHODL ratio alone does not confirm a market direction — it must be considered alongside other indicators such as trading volume, ETF inflows, miner activity, and macroeconomic signals.
Sources: <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/17/the-4-5-signal-why-glassnode-s-rhodl-ratio-says-the-bitcoin-bottom-may-be-in" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">CoinDesk: Glassnode's RHODL Ratio and the Bitcoin Bottom Signal</a> <a href="https://crypto-economy.com/bitcoin-glassnodes-rhodl-ratio-flashes-4-5-signal-hinting-the-btc-bottom-could-be-in/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Crypto Economy: Bitcoin RHODL Ratio Flashes 4.5 Signal</a> <a href="https://insights.glassnode.com/bitcoin-onchain-market-cycles/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Glassnode Insights: Bitcoin On-Chain Market Cycles</a>
Related News: <a href="https://bsc.news/post/bitcoin-recent-updates" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">BSCN: Bitcoin Recent Updates — Institutional Access, Payment Growth, and Renewed Market Activity</a> <a href="https://bsc.news/post/bitcoin-2025" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">BSCN: Bitcoin in 2025 — The Definitive Guide to Crypto's Reigning Champion</a>

Bitcoin Rhodl Ratio Hits 4.5, Flashing 3rd-Highest Bottom Signal Ever... Is The Bottom In?

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