Bitcoin

Kevin

April

Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded above $76,000 at Thursday’s Wall Street open while traders stayed bearish on the short-term BTC price outlook.
Key points:
<ul>
 <li>Bitcoin's Coinbase Premium Index flips negative as analysis warned the January breakdown could repeat.</li>
 <li>BTC price action is already at risk of repeating a bear flag breakdown to new macro lows.</li>
 <li>The April monthly close should still offer Bitcoin's best gains in a year.</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="bitcoin-coinbase-premium-risks-repeating-bearish-history">Bitcoin Coinbase Premium risks repeating bearish history</h2>
Data from TradingView showed 1% daily gains after <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-eyes-75k-after-most-hawkish-fomc-as-oil-hits-highest-since-2022" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">initial pressure</a> over high oil prices and a hawkish US Federal Reserve meeting the day prior.<img alt="Bitcoin Coinbase Premium threatens bear flag repeat with BTC price at $76K" height="818" src="https://payload.cointelegraph.com/api/media/file/BTCUSD_2026-04-30_17-32-34.png?prefix=media%2Fcontent" width="1154">
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">TradingView</a>
 With US stocks treading water, Bitcoin market participants saw little reason to flip bullish on shorter time frames.&nbsp;
Among the concerns was the Coinbase Premium — the difference in price between Coinbase’s BTC/USD and Binance’s BTC/USDT pairs.
“Bitcoin’s ripping higher… but the selling on Coinbase is getting DEEPER by the minute,” X user Against Wall Street <a href="https://x.com/aganstwallst/status/2049836292054163789" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">wrote</a>.&nbsp;
A negative Coinbase Premium implies insufficient demand for Bitcoin during US trading hours, with price action normally suffering as a result.&nbsp;
In January, a relief bounce on BTC/USD combined with a steepening negative Premium, and the pair ultimately broke to new macro lows.<img alt="Bitcoin Coinbase Premium threatens bear flag repeat with BTC price at $76K" height="2250" src="https://payload.cointelegraph.com/api/media/file/Bitcoin%20Coinbase%20Premium%20Index%20(8).png?prefix=media%2Fcontent" width="4000">
Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index. Source: <a href="https://cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/chart/market-data/coinbase-premium-index" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">CryptoQuant</a>
“We’ve seen this exact movie before, and spoiler alert: everybody already knows how it ends,” Against Wall Street continued, referring to January's events.
As <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-rsi-nearly-perfectly-copying-end-2022-bear-market-analysis" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Cointelegraph reported</a>, then, as now, price formed a so-called “bear flag” construction on the daily chart —&nbsp;a warning to buyers that a breakdown could occur.
<h2 id="btc-teases-best-monthly-price-gains-since-april-2025">BTC teases best monthly price gains since April 2025</h2>
Other traders also felt the need for caution, with trader CJ seeing little sign of a long-term floor already being in place.
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-stocks-face-months-of-losses-as-kevin-warsh-becomes-fed-chair" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin, stocks risk 'months' of losses as Kevin Warsh Becomes Fed chair</a>
A chart <a href="https://x.com/CJ900X/status/2049781989125828626" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">uploaded to X</a> on the day included a potential target of $65,000.
“I think even if we are putting in a bottom here, we *at least* see something like this,” they commented.&nbsp;
<blockquote>
 “This would be my bullish outlook. I'm ultimately waiting on April close to refine.”
</blockquote><img alt="Bitcoin Coinbase Premium threatens bear flag repeat with BTC price at $76K" height="2330" src="https://payload.cointelegraph.com/api/media/file/HHJJohbW0AAT9Cf.jpeg?prefix=media%2Fcontent" width="4096">
BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: CJ/X
 The monthly close was set to offer 11.6% gains for April at the time of writing — still Bitcoin’s <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-price-will-see-best-gains-since-q4-2024-with-775k-monthly-close" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">best performance</a> in a year, per data from <a href="https://www.coinglass.com/today" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">CoinGlass</a>.<img alt="Bitcoin Coinbase Premium threatens bear flag repeat with BTC price at $76K" height="782" src="https://payload.cointelegraph.com/api/media/file/Screenshot%202026-04-30%20at%2017.23.22.png?prefix=media%2Fcontent" width="1313">
BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Bitcoin Coinbase Premium threatens bear flag repeat with BTC price at $76K

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